Lonmin Share Discussion Threads

[redbaron10] 27/7/2016 11:22

I also take the view,previously, it was a lot of foreign investors involved in Lonmin,ie Glencore's 25% interest. After the last rights issue the PIC is a major shareholder now.With a lot of South Africans with their pension dependent on PIC's performance,then the miners aren't going to get a lot of public sympathy for any action they might take.It would be a PR disaster for them if they threatened to hold the mining industry to ransom and potentially drive Lonmin to the wall.

[harry_david] 27/7/2016 11:00

Fingers crossed!

[redbaron10] 27/7/2016 08:47

harry_david i believe the unions are being given a reality check here.I think the political will to retain good paying mining jobs will be spelled out in no uncertain terms.Ben knows he has exhausted all the good will concerning Lonmin investors and there is no returning to the well regarding another rights issue.Mark Cutifani at Anglo has included platinum in his recovery plans for the mining giant so that is a vote of confidence as far as i'm concerned regarding labour issues in SA.I could regret this belief big time,but after the 6 month strike over pay and conditions,i don't think either side want a repeat with the current fragility of SA's economic environment.Hopefully common sense will prevail.

[harry_david] 27/7/2016 08:28

Red Baron, the big unknown surely is the wage negotiation currently in train. If that reaches a reasonable conclusion then at current pgm prices the shares are cheap.

[redbaron10] 27/7/2016 07:51

As an investor here,this week could define Lonmin's prospects for the rest of the year.European car sales (excepting VW to some extent) remain robust.JMattey shares are flying.Ok a lot is to do with the pound's weakness,but catalytic converters are still being churned out.The Fed i expect to hold fire until December at the earliest for raising rates so the dollar wont strengthen on the back of this.The Bank of Japan is looking for more stimulus measures by the end of this month,and Q3 production figures for Lmi due 1/8.If none of these factors move the platinum price, or the share price,then we will tread water here now.Being positive,however,i believe the commodity play remains a recovery story with all miners benefiting.Considering how risk-averse the investing community is at the moment,with everyone chasing yield in safe havens,the fact Lonmin has risen so far this year implies to me that despite all the 'sell' recommendations everywhere,positions are being taken here for the long term.Let's hope the interest continues.

[redbaron10] 25/7/2016 12:36

Dollar strength doing us no favours here at the mo.FOMC meeting on Wednesday where hopefully Yellen can talk down the chances of a rate rise and lower the dollar's relative strength.We need that pt price up

[cudmore] 21/7/2016 13:17

DD

LOL.

These are about to fly with The latest update imminent

[cudmore] 20/7/2016 14:13

Top up time!! Mar be worth a gamble at this price!

[old fool2] 17/7/2016 10:19

Sunday Times's article

[cudmore] 15/7/2016 15:52

Could break out here!!

[brahmsnliszt] 14/7/2016 13:56

Lonmin raised to buy vs reduce at alphaville.

[cudmore] 14/7/2016 13:53

Testing the £2.50 point

[harry_david] 12/7/2016 14:58

RedBaron, the problem with hedges is they are never enough to offset the bad news, however Lonmin has certainly eased the pain.
Elvis there is certainly an argument that many miners have gone above their fundamentals but Lonmin is well positioned to survive, high grading and reduced development expenditure fix short term cash very rapidly if prices are reasonable and most expectations are for a reduction in the platinum overhang in the next year. The company is in better shape than some high priced iron ore and other miners where the supply situation is far tougher.

[cudmore] 12/7/2016 09:58

Think these are about to break the £2.50 price today!!

[elvisrocks] 11/7/2016 20:08

Further to my earlier post, I have thought more about UBS posts, what do people think on this? Lonmin said at the half year they are 67% of the way to making their R700m of cost savings. Good news they all cry.

However, for a $1bn turnover business that breaks even and has only $100m of depreciation, that means cash costs must be $900m per annum, and they said nominal costs would be held flat for the next 3 years. But costs rise with inflation and the bulk of Lonmin's costs are wages and electricity, so are they saying they have booked the good news in cost savings, but the bad news in terms of wage deals are yet to be seen? Add to that 100,000 oz less production.

Pt price growth to $1,100 per ounce will be offset by a stronger rand, so as a business H2 EBITDA will be the same as H1, slightly better maybe, it needs to triple to break even ..... but the bad news on costs is yet to be seen imho.

[redbaron10] 11/7/2016 17:41

And are you going to sell as UBS and Deutsche advocate? Harrydavid

[harry_david] 11/7/2016 16:09

On 22nd June these were trading at £1.725, since when they've advanced 42%. Not a bad hedge!

[elvisrocks] 10/7/2016 17:48

Just a little balance to recent BB arguments, costs are not expected to be maintained going forward and industry wage talks with the unions start this week and they want a 56% wage hike to be at the R12,500 minumum wage.

Lonmin's business plan is predicated on flat nominal costs for the next 3 years, where I would expect both wage and electricity inflation to be (at least) 10-20%. The ZAR is also strengthening against the USD.

hxxp://www.iol.co.za/business/companies/sell-lonmin-ubs-recommends-2035485

[redbaron10] 08/7/2016 21:37

Monday morning should be fun after Wall st. close tonight

[redbaron10] 08/7/2016 20:36

Salty,don't know how brave you feel,but in three weeks (1/8) we get Q3 production report.Might be worth hanging on for.Pt over $1100oz today.

[saltaire111] 08/7/2016 14:32

I knew i should have kept my big mouth shut - bragging about being only 50% down. I'm now 52% down!!

Boule- sorry to read about the hubby being sick, that's not easy caring for someone and trying to keep everything else together. Best wishes for that.

Pleased to see some of the UK banks coming back up a bit today, and some of the UK property assets too. The sooner we can get some political stability the better.

Salty

[redbaron10] 08/7/2016 08:28

just seen 3m IAG trade.Wow.US jobs report today.

[mike24] 08/7/2016 08:21

miners might slip back a bit, if rest of market
ticks up, keep an eye on RRS
edit
randgold nearly 3quid down now
plat rise looks good for monday
nai