Lonmin Share Discussion Threads

[abryer] 10/8/2016 14:45

And the share price keeps going up

[elvisrocks] 10/8/2016 14:06

Hate to disappoint you all and bring you back to the not so la la land of the brokers advising sell at low to mid £1. At the half year (March), Lonmin had an average basket price of R11,035 area, 3 months later (June) about R11,860 an increase of 7.5%, not complaining. But since then Pt price has gone up even more, touching $1200 but so has the Rand appreciated by a similar amount and costs gone as well. Pt is "only" up about 25-30% over 6 months, about 10%+ for last 12.

At half year it made EBITDA of $36m, add say even 20% to that (pushing it) for the second half of the year and full year EBITDA may be 36+36+7= $79m but it has depreciation of $100m so is not going to make a profit at $1200 per oz! Needs it to be nearer $1400 just to break even.

Wonder why all the brokers are saying sell?

[redbaron10] 10/8/2016 10:16

Good man.If you go to platinum news and then read the ET(Economic Times)article you might find it interesting.

[harry_david] 10/8/2016 08:51

I was rereading industry comment, it all looks very encouraging

[redbaron10] 10/8/2016 06:56

pt up 2% pd up 5% Are you psychic harry_david?

[harry_david] 09/8/2016 14:41

Rand up after elections but platinum looks very well supported at these levels. Tighter diesel regs in China should kick in soon

[nash81] 09/8/2016 14:10

moved some from LMI to SLP. SLP very cheap at the moment.

[redbaron10] 08/8/2016 08:43

I think the election results have been viewed positively for the SA economy.Looking here,at Anglo and then financials like Old Mut,Aberdeen and Investec,their charts looking very pretty for investors this morning.

[redbaron10] 08/8/2016 08:17

You have the biggest player Anglo American(AAL),owner of amplats listed on JSE,then smaller bit players Jubilee plat and Aquarius plat.Hope that is of some help.Only know Anglo and Lonmin in this space so do your homework in this space.

[joy division still] 07/8/2016 22:39

Soz about bumping in, but can anyone suggest any other platinum miners , I'm avoiding 'prospectors and discovers' I really want actual producers ideally listed in UK

[redbaron10] 04/8/2016 09:23

SA election results could be good for their economic growth prospects.Both Aberdeen and Investec have big interests in SA and their share prices going in the right direction.Translate this to the mining sector and good news.

[cudmore] 03/8/2016 11:01

The bounce is on.....£2.50 would be nice!

[redbaron10] 03/8/2016 10:56

Has anybody got a clue when we expect to hear news from the wage negotiations? All i've managed to harvest news-wise is 17/7,unions ready to sit down with management that week,and on Monday when the word 'constructive' was used.

[redbaron10] 02/8/2016 17:37

SA municipal elections today.Tomorrow's price action important.

[redbaron10] 02/8/2016 13:57

Trade volumes? Everyone waiting for BoE rate decision this week,plus US non-farm payrolls Friday.Just sit back and watch the pt price climb.

[cudmore] 02/8/2016 13:29

Topping up opportunity imho

[harry_david] 02/8/2016 08:53

Amendment, platinum now 16,300 rand.

[harry_david] 02/8/2016 07:59

Platinum now 16,200 rand, way above the average for the last quarter and no matter any production problems this is shaping up the right way.I note that in the last half both Anglo and Lonmin have run down their platinum stock levels which suggests the overhang they talk about is reducing fairly rabidly.

[ileeman] 01/8/2016 21:31

The thing is if platinum continues vertical then LMI will continue to go up

LMI 5% up to 4% down finish

Ussually get wild swings on news day anyway and dont forget LMI has gone up 5 days in a row without a down day and we tested 52 week highs.

Nothing goes up in a straight line.

[elvisrocks] 01/8/2016 19:52

Just an additional follow on, and looking at the 3 months to June 2016, or even position at 30 June 2016, only one month ago.
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Three months unit costs R10,596, doesn't give much margin on the R10,700 when wage rises are to come.
XR of 14.99, it is back in the 13's now isn't it?
Average basket price of R11,864 and that's with the last three months tailwinds on the Pt Price, bar movement in July 2016.
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Add to that the dollop of uncertainty in the final Para of the guidance "Whilst we are pleased with the implementation of our business plan, we have yet to
fully harness the associated benefits and productivity gains", those eagle eyed amongst us will remember Big Ben telling us at Q2 they have made, and booked into Q2 results, 67% of the targeted cost savings.
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I'm moving over to Tullow Oil if anyone has views, not sure if 186p current has further to fall at a $42 oil price or we could head back into the low 200s. I'm out for the moment, playing watch and see.

[redbaron10] 01/8/2016 18:59

Thanks for the advice,elvis

[cudmore] 01/8/2016 18:47

35000 buy at £2.41......someone thinks there is still profit to be made in these!

[elvisrocks] 01/8/2016 18:33

The reason why the share price fell today, after a monumental ride up in the last months is as follows - all is not good at Lonmin. Here is why.
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Reason 1 - all along Lonmin have nailed their socks to the mast and said unit costs will be held at R10,400. Could now be R10,700!
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Reason 2 - at Q2 they said "The average Rand basket price at R11,035 per PGM ounce was essentially flat as the decrease in Dollar PGM prices was offset by a weakening Rand". What has happened in Q3? Lonmin now say "Average Rand full basket price .... at R11,864 per PGM ounce". In Q4, July 2016, the dollar PGM has risen further this month, but the Rand has now strengthened by an equivalent amount so a rosy $1,100+ Pt price isn't making inroads.
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Reason 3, what does this all mean? Big Ben last year said with costs at R10,400 and capx at R900 per oz, R11,300 was the rough break even. That is now R11,600 given the R300 increase in possible costs. Revenue that is being achieved is R11,864, so a profit, at best, of R300 per oz and they still have $100m of depreciation to cover.
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Reason 4. The markets worked out today that even after a juicy 30% rise in Pt over the last six months, the strengthening Rand and increased costs is starting to work against Lonmin and it will be a slow burn back into the £1 something area. Lonmin won't make $100m EBITDA that it needs to to break even, even if Pt price goes north of $1,200 per oz.
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Cudmore and red baron, if I were you, sell now and take your profits and check back in later in the year. The analysts with their sells seem to have this correct.