Lonmin Share Discussion Threads

[cudmore] 17/5/2016 21:04

£2.50 my new short term bailout for a nice 500% profit!

[elvisrocks] 17/5/2016 20:50

Now, do we believe this clown? Six months ago, it was doom and gloom for ever in Pt Price, now it's boom time again according to Tom Kendall, the head of precious metals strategy at ICBC Standard Bank plc in London

hxxp://www.bdlive.co.za/business/mining/2016/05/17/platinum-supply-deficit-expected-to-push-up-share-prices-through-2017

And who is Tom Kendall, ah yes, his LinkedIn page says he started his life as a PR and speech writing Journo!

hxxps://www.linkedin.com/in/tom-kendall-5439124

[elvisrocks] 17/5/2016 20:41

Can believe all the fools out there.
Let me recap, all based on yesterday's numbers per the Announcement:
Basket Price Realised R10,962
Average Unit Costs R10,668
Profit Per Oz about R300
Sell 700,000 Ozs = R210m Profit (Rands, not $)
$100m CapX not in these figures
----
EBITDA $36m
Depreciation $51m
Operating Loss $15m
Assume same depreciation figure for H2, so Lonmin unless conditions improve will still report a loss at Sept 16 of about $30m
---
Now wait for it ..... Cash, don't you think they tried to make the figure look at best as possible, so ....
Capex Spend to date $29m - there's another $70m they expect to spend in H2
Stock levels very low, expect bigger stock levels in September due to stock count / downtime. More stock held = less cash .....
----
Conclusion? Not profit making, will be cash absorbing by end of Sept 16 unless sales conditions improve more.

[lazyhisnibs] 17/5/2016 16:02

Phone interview with Ben Magara

www.businessdaytv.co.za/shows/newsleader/2016/05/16/lonmin-on-track-with-cost-cuts

Ben M given more space to follow his own path with this interview compared to the Bloomberg interviewer who's questions were more targeted. Similar themes though. Positive with some caution.



PS: The Rand has weakened a bit more again this week on some SA orientated political intrigue. Against the Greenback the Rand is roughly one and half off what I think was its all time low back in January so about 15.5 right now against the dollar compared to roughly 17 back then.

[abryer] 17/5/2016 13:53

£1.95 only 46p old money pre rights so plenty to go yet

[cudmore] 17/5/2016 13:14

Back to £2 and possible breakout imho

[brahmsnliszt] 16/5/2016 14:37

PGM week in London this week fwiw.

[brahmsnliszt] 16/5/2016 14:37

16-May-2016 14:00:00 - PLATINUM MARKET DEFICIT SEEN GROWING TO 861,000 OZ THIS YEAR FROM 659,000 OZ IN 2015-JOHNSON MATTHEY16-May-2016 14:00:00 - PALLADIUM MARKET SHORTFALL SEEN AT 843,000 OZ IN 2016 VS 447,000 OZ LAST YEAR-JOHNSON MATTHEY

[cudmore] 16/5/2016 13:05

I was holding out for £2 with these but think I may stay on board for the ride northwards!!

[thomasthetank1] 16/5/2016 12:43

Read share price Angel's note on LONMIN PLC (LMI), out this morning, by visiting hxxps://www.research-tree.com/company/GB0031192486

"Lonmin reports that it produced 177,444 oz of refined platinum in Q2 ending 31st March 2016. Output was 54,964 oz or 44.9% higher than in Q2 2015 as a result of smooth operations at the smelter complex which were impacted by two shutdowns in 2015. Total PGM production was 336,105 oz, an increase of 42.2% on the equivalent. Costs of R10,390 per PGM oz were 2.6% lower than in Q2 2015 and 5.1% lower than the holiday affected R10,949/oz recorded for Q1 2016...."

[trader365] 16/5/2016 12:31

Ben Magara on Bloomberg TV this morning link here:

[lazyhisnibs] 16/5/2016 12:24

I just tried skim reading the RNSs pending a better read tonight or whenever.

Does anyone know what the implications of the following sentence is, beyond the Company presumably not having to do a lot more to comply in the foreseeable future?

"Merger of our BEE partner Shanduka with Pembani was completed thereby allowing Lonmin to maintain its BEE compliant status. Lonmin and Pembani are both committed to a long-standing mutually beneficial relationship."

It sounds positive or, at least, a relief.


Something I might have missed unless it was covered by the last of the Interim hightlights is, have one or more additional shaft(s) been mothballed since the last quarterly report?



I note commodities (especially oil) are having a good day. That obviously doesn't account for the lion's share of the momentum here but every little helps.

EDIT

From the Q2 Report

Generation 1 shafts

"In line with the Group's plans for the closure of high cost areas, production from our Generation 1 shafts (Hossy, Newman, W1, E1, E2, E3 and Pandora (100%)) at 0.6 million tonnes was 0.2 million tonnes, or 22.1% lower than Q2 2015 " and "K4 shaft remains on care and maintenance and a small amount of opencast ore was recovered as this operation wound down."

More under the following heading in the interims:

"Reorganisation of the Group and Removal of High Cost Production"

[bigbigdave] 16/5/2016 12:15

Chart breaking out past the March highs here.

[no1larafan] 16/5/2016 12:12

Its rocketed since u sold! I'm hanging on!

[careful] 16/5/2016 12:01

I am now out for the time being.
A very interesting 12 months to say the least.
This could eventually turn into a multi bagger.

but when the share has risen from 36p a few weeks ago to todays price (x5), it reminds us of the insanity of these markets.
It forces us to be prudent.

best of luck to holders.
A desirable property is Lonmin, lots of potential going forward.
If past experience is anything to go on, my selling will turbo charge the share price from now on.

[careful] 16/5/2016 11:34

so quiet here today.
tells you lots about the usual posters.

[harry_david] 16/5/2016 10:54

LW, it is already there plus a bit. The ZA exchange rate is just as important.
If the price/exchange stabilises at this level a prospective pe of 10 would be normal.

[lw425] 16/5/2016 10:38

so cap about 540m?

do we know what the plat price needs to be to generate 80m profit at current exchange rates?

say PE of 7?

[neg] 16/5/2016 09:02

Careful-Danny Forston has an awful record. Poor research and writes about companies he doesn't understand.

[careful] 16/5/2016 08:58

danny Forston's sunday times article of a a week ago back looks a scandal.
these guys should be sorted.

[careful] 16/5/2016 08:44

production numbers published today see above.
this looks well set for the future now.
a well run company.

[brahmsnliszt] 16/5/2016 08:41

seems that feeling was bang on :-)


Brahmsnliszt
10 May'16 - 17:52 - 11936 of 11951 1 0 edit


Have a feeling we will get some decent production numbers from LMI next week.

[p@] 16/5/2016 08:31

16000?......what yen?.......LOL

[harry_david] 16/5/2016 08:07

Agree, and today plat over 16,000 again

[careful] 16/5/2016 07:59

Having read report I feel Magara has delivered all that can be reasonably expected, exactly as promised after the recent chaos.
Cash flow positive in second quarter.
Debt free at +$180m.
production cost 10668R and/oz or $697/oz.
target $680/oz should be reached.

Obviously a small loss as expected for the six months but a great starting point going forward.