Lonmin Share Discussion Threads

[cudmore] 13/5/2016 18:58

Can only see good news here on Monday imho. Holding for my £2 short term target :)

[careful] 13/5/2016 16:27

With todays cap of only £465m we sometimes forget how tiny this company has become.
It would cost that much to open a few new shafts.

The results and accompanying statement must be pretty dire not to justify a cap of £465m.
Taking a 10 year view, and comparing with a risk free 10 year gilt yield of 1.53% LMI is an interesting prospect.

[khitchen] 13/5/2016 16:19

Results day Monday will we go up or down
I am for a big increase in the share price

[lazyhisnibs] 12/5/2016 16:12

I've just looked at some charts and from the extremes of the low points at or close to the turn of the year platinum in rand terms has risen a third and palladium a bit shy of a quarter. In comparison against the USD the Rand has strengthened about 11% from its low point at near enough the same time.


In terms of the metals it might just be sustainable give or take a profit taking dip here and there but no one knows what will actually happen. The Rand should continue to weaken against the currencies of South Africa's main trading partners over time due to the differential in inflation (if nothing else) but for a while it's been oversold technically and on PPP.


------------
Deans, thanks for your reply.

[deans] 12/5/2016 14:42

Hi Lazy DRIP (Dividend Reinvestment Plan)- company dividends being paid in newly issued shares in lieu of money to shareholders that preferred payment in that way.

[redbaron10] 12/5/2016 13:14

JP Morgan Cazenove has given Lonmin an 'overweight' rating today.Not that i pay any attention to them,at least someone influential is a tad more positive!

[lazyhisnibs] 12/5/2016 11:38

Hi Deans,

Thanks for the benefit of your memory as I couldn't find anything going through quite a few pages of Google mind you that period was quite a long time ago. By the way what do you mean by "there was a DRIP in operation" please. Production?

-----Not related to the above---an article follows----

www.iol.co.za/business/markets/commodities/platinum-price-signals-gains-for-industry-players-2020620

Heading: Platinum price signals gains for industry players

(Extracts:-

The platinum price, which has gained momentum over the past three months, strengthened to $1 069.38 an ounce yesterday, compared with its 28 percent tumble to $803 an ounce at the end of last year. However, it is far from its peak of $2 308 an ounce, reached in March 2008.

Johan Theron, a spokesman at Impala Platinum, the world’s second-biggest platinum producer, said: “Looking at all these pricing mechanisms, we have seen an aggregate increase in the rand basket price of approximately 15 percent over the past few months. “While this is very welcome, the prevailing rand basket price is still some distance from the historical price trajectory, especially when you consider the growth in input cost over the same period.”

The market fundamentals of platinum look positive as the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) and Switzerland’s Valcambi yesterday announced a partnership to increase the availability of platinum bar and coin products for the global retail market, initially targeting the US market.)

By rand basket price does he mean palladium too or just platinum?

-------

If the update per se triggers a sustainable uptick in Lonmin's share price I would guess that it would mostly be on the back of management exceeding expectations on the mothballing of shafts. Obviously I don't know if they will have done so or not. I would guess that a couple of IIs would have a view by now though.

Nothing if not interesting!

[joy division still] 12/5/2016 10:21

Brexit vote - if we leave & markets buckle would platinum (therefore lonmin) increase , ie does platinum rise like gold in emergencies??

[harry_david] 11/5/2016 09:17

Graph for Plat in Rands looks rather impressive

[careful] 11/5/2016 08:21

Glasenberg of Glencore talks sense when he says miners must stop oversupply to achieve profits.
I would have thought platinum supply was the easiest to control.
So few major producers.

[cudmore] 11/5/2016 07:54

Another rise today??

[deans] 11/5/2016 07:38

Hi Lazy from memory definitely no placings but there was a capital reduction when the shares were c.£12 each when Mr Craven was chairman and pretty sure there were no RIs. There was a DRIP in operation as well for at least part of this period.

[brahmsnliszt] 10/5/2016 17:52

Have a feeling we will get some decent production numbers from LMI next week.

[lazyhisnibs] 10/5/2016 11:55

jds,

To refresh my memory whilst avoiding delving in to RNSs I skim read a few articles which collectively more-or-less match your figures but there are some minor variations amongst them with one by Motely Fools adding up the total amount raised to being about S1.3bn which was fell short of the details in their own article and all the other ones too. Perhaps the one below is more accurate.

(

Extracts from the article follow:

"The rights issue was the third time in six years that Lonmin has gone cap in hand to shareholders. Investors paid out $457m in 2009, at £9 per share, and $777m at 140p per share in 2012. "

History: "In its previous guise as Lonhro, the company was one of South Africa’s corporate giants. At its peak it owned 90 companies in 15 countries from mines to hotels, textiles and newspapers including The Observer. The mining business demerged in 1998 and was renamed Lonmin, while modern-day Lonhro has interests in logistics and infrastructure.")

Does anyone know if there were rights issues or placings between the demerge in 1998 and the 2009 RI? I vaguely remember an analyst reporting there was a fourth in the past decade or so.

[yrcw] 10/5/2016 11:22

Thats correct. Big Black Ben from Zimbabwe plans on another rights issue in 2018---in the meantime he is also trying to keep the NUM and ANC as happy as possible by not firing any bantu.

[joy division still] 10/5/2016 10:16

Can anyone confirm if i have the following correct in regards to Lonmin Rights issues of recent years,
2009 RI approx usd 460 million
2012 RI approx usd 800 million
2015 RI approx usd 400 million

[careful] 09/5/2016 22:39

it is difficult to take along term view here in the conventional sense..
although I try.

The trouble is with the long term view is that when a share surges from 36p to o 190p in a few weeks a prudent investor will take some off the table.

[brahmsnliszt] 09/5/2016 22:11

Too busy elvis on other things to have the faintest clue what sl break even figure is. Sorry. I'm sure if you google it the info will be there.

[elvisrocks] 09/5/2016 22:06

And your view on two things Brahms?

What do you think Standard Life's break even price is, a 6% investor for the last few years? What do you think will be LMI's share price in 2020?

[brahmsnliszt] 09/5/2016 21:57

I seem to remember swearing blind LMI would head drastically lower last year even before news of the share split and elvis swore blind myself and graham were wrong. Well, we all know what happened next.Not arguing against his views here but the track record isn't too much to write home about.

[elvisrocks] 09/5/2016 21:50

So let's have a guess. LMI was nearly 500% up from lows in 3 months, overshot itself, FTSE heading back below 6000, Pt price up, Rand XR weaker than average for 2015, Pt now falling, LMI cash likely to be depleted (per careful), LMI not even profitable at these high Pt prices... So ......
-----
LMI will fall for the next 2 days, stabalise and up a bit on Thursday, Friday bit of a non-day, some 'good' news will leak out Sunday, results won't be as bad as we are thinking (but analysts will have already worked EPS out) spike back up to 155-160 range by Tuesday and then for the next 8 weeks?
----
Anyone got any better predictions?

[redbaron10] 09/5/2016 21:41

So you're saying share price will not rise above 185p again then? Bold call.

[elvisrocks] 09/5/2016 20:08

redbaron, what happened to the trend is our friend a few days back with this share when it was 185p!

[elvisrocks] 09/5/2016 20:05

careful you keep telling us about how wonderful LMI's assets are, how in 10 years we'll all be billionaires if we hold them but then you're no different to all the others on here, a frequent buyer and seller. In a few days, you'll be all sold out!

What happened to the long term hold, keep and wait philosophy?

[careful] 09/5/2016 19:32

all mining shares got hammered today not just lmi.
march them up then march them down.
just traders that is all, but my how they can shift a share.

Elvis,you keep banging on about the modest loss LMI will make this year.
We all agree and it will be confirmed shortly, although your detailed assessment is useful
balance sheet should be strong with low net debt.
The cash was raised for restructuring remember so it will be depleted.
Hoping there are no real nasties that we do not know about. the number of 'safety' stoppages was worrying las time.
sounded like bullsh*t to me.


Wondering what to do here right now.
Top sliced at 138p,188p and 196p but still have about 43% of original holding.
The miners are far too volatile, the plaything of traders.
todays 12% showed that yet again.
and on a volume of just 2.8m shares exactly 1% of the total.
A total collapse over the last 12 months, even today we are still valued at just £411m after the rights issue.
We were valued at well over £1bn just a few weeks before the rights.

Amazing how the platinum price fell 4% today.
All on light volumes.