Livermore Investments Share Discussion Threads

[fozzyb] 19/4/2010 19:14

livermore bought in at £2.25 in may 08, the offer is 90p for atlas, heavy loss if they accept

[fozzyb] 15/3/2010 21:11

spec, you are right

[spectoacc] 10/2/2010 12:14

Finally given up on them here; been a holder since EOL days, but just can't see a catalyst to send them back up now - not the Atlas Estates holding, not the buy-backs, not the 2009 stock market rally, not the discount to NAV.

[fozzyb] 28/7/2009 19:23

sideways for a while, can see this drifting lower to 14/15p before a Q4 rally...

[spectoacc] 28/5/2009 13:39

Results today, for anyone interested (ie no one!).

[25cent] 13/5/2009 09:49

I will leave it at that spec, if you think its normal business then good look to you.

[spectoacc] 13/5/2009 09:17

And just why do you reckon they'd need to buy 150m shares, if you agree default isn't on the cards?

Unless Lanir's "lost" the money, then ultimately the loan's repaid, and his holding is released back to him. I just don't see it as an issue.

[25cent] 13/5/2009 09:09

No i did not say they are were /are going to default at all.
Its not a LIV matter its Lanirs personal holding.
And just who do you reckon would buy 150 million shares in this murky little gem then?

[spectoacc] 13/5/2009 08:49

Eh? So who says they're going to default? You?

D'you think the lender's concerned? Would you rather they'd sold shares instead of borrowed against?

This isn't some Russian oligarch loan; unless it's a web of deceit, LIV have the assets. The loan allows them to raise cash without having to sell down their stake - I see that as a positive.

But as I say - it's AIM, anything's possible.

[25cent] 13/5/2009 08:41

You dont get it do you?
The loan is secured against the value of the shares as per today ie 18p or under and the NOT 50P as they clain the NVA is.
They would not get anything back if they default on that loan, that's my whole point!

So if the nav is to be believed they are risking 50p per share at the price of 18p per share..

I dont think that's right somehow! i wonder why they are both doing it???

[spectoacc] 13/5/2009 07:46

25cent - whilst your outcome/view is feasible, your logic isn't.

Of course you'd take out a £100k loan on a £500k house - the point is that the risk is small. They could sell shares to raise cash it's true - but why bother, when they can keep the shares and take a loan against them? The "LTV" of the shares isn't high when the NAV is considered; and whilst accepting it may be an illiquid NAV, the lender is happy with it.

I think your argument proves the opposite of what you want it to prove; but as I say, since this is AIM, I accept anything's possible.

[adam] 12/5/2009 23:42

because you take out a mortgage on something doesn't mean you want to sell it - the opposite. interesting to note that Atlas seems to be doing o.k share price wise and still a big discount to NAV. i would buy some but not my cup of tea. also Atlas have been very careful in ring fencing all assets separately

[25cent] 12/5/2009 23:17

I'd speculate they will not!

The plot thickens, all the shares are not actually in Lanirs control he has taken out bank loans and handed the shares as security.
And would you know it Ron Baron, Chief Investment Officer of
Livermore, has done the same thing.
So in effect they have relinquished their shares in exchange for a vastly reduce cash lump sum to what they claim the shares are worth? why would they do that?

They are both wealthy individuals with other assets at their disposal ,why i wonder do they choose to risk this "massively undervalued" (sic) asset to cover loans when surely it would be more sensible to assign an asset already at a more realistic valuation to cover such loan?

Why would put up a asset for security at 18p when you claim its worth circa 50p? why would you bother? on those terms all they have to do is sell all the LIV assets and they make 300% profit instantly?
What better investment is available than that that they feel the need to risk the 300% gain for by taking loans out on the shares? Hmmm don't make any sense does it!!!.

The rns quotes that The value of these assets is significantly in excess of the amount of the loan
facility.

Well i think that is very debatable who would want to buy 154,412,173 million shares in a company with such illiquid assets as LIV notwithstanding that but also one that books assets valuations not on actual shareprice of those assets but on the book value of the assets held by that company?



This is more dodgy than delboys mobile phone deals.

[fozzyb] 07/5/2009 20:12

I'd speculate Lanir or company buy back knowing this company

[spectoacc] 06/5/2009 14:34

Some v. large trades today at 18p..

[fozzyb] 09/4/2009 23:13

After considering arguments above, these shares can only be considered super high-risk due to the unaudited figures & complex dealings of the company.

Quick research shows a company with good fortunes, and for that reason I continue to hold, I'm not selling many things now, in fact I see value in these markets right now..Roll on 2010!

[carlos06] 17/3/2009 16:03

looks like swiss property profile is totally different to uk, and LIV actually bought their property at approx 1992 prices, and although the likeliehood of price escalation isn't huge, neither is depreciation, and yields are around 5% in Switzerland. So talk of buying at height of bubble appear's incorrect for Switzerland.
So as long as mortgage costs don't rocket, this doesn't appear as bad an acquisition as it might be if it was in UK, Spain or Ireland. Whether or not the property was fairly priced re the market at purchase time I don't know.

[bamba3] 12/3/2009 17:25

Guys,

I just found it easier calling the management and asking specific questions rather than just wondering about the whys and the hows.

With regards to their holding in Atlas, the market value is much lower than what they state on their books. Since they are a significant shareholder, they use the equity method and specify Atlas as an associate company and thus value it at NAV. I think they have recently started giving monthly NAV updates with Atlas valued at NAV and also with Atlas valued at market value. It makes a lot more sense now.

For me their debt was the single most worrying factor, especially in this environment. The biggest debt is on their Wyler Park property in Switzerland. From what they told me, they structured it in a separate company and the debt is against the property and not the group company. Its true that only pension funds buy such big properties using only cash. Rest all buy using debt, even us as individuals. The 75 or 79M that they have against this property comes to a loan-to-cost of 70-73% or so (cost: 93M + 15M apartments construction = 108). As far as I understand, property values in Switzerland have not declined so far. I may be wrong though.

I'll probably talk to them again after they release their 2008 results. Lets see what they have to say. Will keep you posted if you find it interesting.

[25cent] 15/2/2009 23:37

Hi mrionionbahjee2,
To say the very least, its a very complex web of financial dealings,virtually no liquidity and as far as i can see zero transparency and on top of that complicated leveraging of assets originally bought.
I dont see any mention of the need to leverage debt on its assets in any RNS or past results from the company?


What i find bizarre is that the Net Value of the investments has apparently gone up since the credit crunch and global collapse in equity and property prices??

Back in May 08 in its final results the company said the net asset value was 47p. Now after all the turmoil and pain in the markets its somehow gone upto 50p? That's some performance is that, especially when in September Livermore said in its results thats it "expects that some of the anticipated exits from its
investments in 2008 will likely be delayed until more favorable global economic conditions return."
yet again this was before the real collapse in the markets in October/November?
If its delaying its exit from these "investments" surly that must indicate that they have fallen considerably in value??

Dec 07
Livermore today announces the acquisition of 8.41% of the issued share capital
of Atlas Estates Limited, by means of the purchase of 4,076,836 issued ordinary
shares in Atlas at an average price of 277.48p per share. The total
consideration for this investment is #11.3m in cash.
Dec 07
Livermore today announces the acquisition of 8.41% of the issued share capital
of Atlas Estates Limited, by means of the purchase of 4,076,836 issued ordinary
shares in Atlas at an average price of 277.48p per share. The total
consideration for this investment is #11.3m in cash.

31 December 07
The agreement with Elran is for the purchase of 4,097,509 Ordinary Shares in
Atlas at a price of Euro4.8 (£3.53) per share, amounting to a total
consideration of Euro19,668,443 (£14,461,796), representing an additional
9.1% of Atlas's issued share capital (excluding treasury shares held by Atlas).
Under this agreement Livermore will transfer the consideration for the purchased
shares by no later than 15 January 2008.


Share price of Atlas at the close on Friday was 61p and also it's getting delisted from the Aim
Liv holds 24% of Atlas 99% bought a lot higher than 60p most of them above £3 and is holding a massive loss in Atlas, but this seems to have no effect on increasing the net asset value of the LIV shares.

Maybe the observant ones also note who LIV bought the shares from for over £3 a pop?
Yep look who crops up again the same Israeli company that LIV invested in Its Romanian TV station venture, none other than Elran.

How on earth could the NAV have increased since May 08? i really don't understand?

[25cent] 15/2/2009 19:00

Fozzy, so why not get a listing The Tel Aviv Stock Exchange (TASE) in Tel Aviv then instead of AIM?
I am not for one minute suggesting that the tight rules of the TASE and the notoriously lax rules on AIM contributed to this decision, but i personally don't understand the connection with England?

He is a Israeli investing in Israeli companies or funds but for some reason registers on aim???
I personally value this company at zero when you take into account the debt and lack of liquidity in its holdings.
Tell me now, why would Lanir not buy out the whole company if it was worth 50p a share.
Why does he not want to buy 50p's for 12p??
Indeed he had to get a special resolution voted through by the board (sic)in order for him not to have to make a full offer once he had passed 29.99% holding.

I don't want to be disrespectful but he certainly does not come across to me as someone who would pass up the opportunity to make easy millions if the assets really are worth 500% more than the share price.
He is a business man and businessmen don't normally walk away from "easy money" deals do they?

I also note that LIV has debts! One pure 11.6 million debt, why is that? and a fully drawn credit facility of 74 million secured on its train station property in Switzerland????
That's a lot of debt, and i don't understand why or for what the debt is for?
What does liv need money for? i thought that the idea was to invest the cash it made from selling EOL and not to leveraged debt on the back of properties bought from that cash?

I would be very careful fozzy if you hold these.

It seems PRTY feel like they also have been led up the garden path to the tune of 450 million by the the now apparently charitable Lanir' former company EOL.
As we know this then turned into LIV with the cash from selling the gaming side of EOL and the cAsh settlement from the court action against PRTY.


Livmore say they are worth 50p a share or 140 million
I repeat does this guy look like someone who would ignore apparently a easy £100 million pound profit for taking out the remaining stock on LIV?
it does not make any sense does it?
I suspect that a share delisting may well be not far away.


Anyone on this thread from the LGB thread?
AIMHO

[fozzyb] 12/2/2009 17:52

25 cent, what would you estimate NVA at? must be more than 12p no?

you are right about the israel connections.. I had noticed that, but it means nothing apart from the board and Lanir are working their homeland connections, if thats where they are strongest, good!