Landkom Share Discussion Threads

[felix99] 23/8/2011 13:09

lol IGP is longest share I have ever held - about 4years. Outside that i am more of a trader I agree .

But to be a long term in investor in Ukraine at whim of the weather and oligarchs - blimey and good luck to anyone buying this on a 10 year view.

[divinausa1] 23/8/2011 12:39

felix your sounding more and more like a short term trader, how about thinking 2 - 10 yrs ahead....

[giant steps] 23/8/2011 12:19

Felix99, a small investment to make improved returns, a nice way to operate profitably. Glad their infrastructure issues have been addressed, seems like
the manageable parts of the business are being addressed, rather this than not.

Good Harvest results expected next week, interesting times ahead

LKI Reminder Prices bid 5p offer 5.50p, 4 v 3

[felix99] 23/8/2011 12:11

So they purchased a gas pipeline , a dryer , contracted further storage capacity if needed, railway construction costs, holding equipemnt for construction of another facility.

Not forgetting the combine harvester fleet

That all seems to be a lot of costs to hit the bottom line and a lot of construction. Who knows if this lot came in on budget or whether estimated costs have spiralled? .

And whoever was asking about focusing on cash - that is cash cost too not just accounting amortisation or anything by the looks , heavy capex.

Thats the nub of my concern . Happy to be proved wrong by Company but its a few uncertainties I don;t need in a market like this

[giant steps] 23/8/2011 10:34

Reminder from Interims

"
Storage and logistics

The Group's rail-side storage facility in Lviv Oblast has been enhanced by the addition of a gas pipeline and a newly purchased dryer, which dramatically increases drying capacity with reduced drying cost. In addition, the Group has floor storage capacity of 35,000 tonnes and has contracted further silo capacity to be used if needed.

Landkom has also now finished the construction of a railway link from the silo area to the main line which will enable trucks to be loaded directly at the silo, reducing handling costs.

The Group continues to hold equipment for the construction of a second 20,000 tonne silo facility.
"

[divinausa1] 23/8/2011 10:25

they have indicated before their storage capabilities
cant be bothered to look it up, but very well established

re this years figs
anyway you look at it this yrs figures, yields, prices, turnover
will be much higher than last years yet the share price is at last yrs levels

[giant steps] 23/8/2011 09:53

I'm reading Ukraine (in general) will have insufficient (or bad) storage facilities,
some farmers may incur grain loss from rotting. We have to hope Landkom
are ahead of the curve on this aspect as forward price agreements carry the
inherent risk of failure to deliver.

[tim000] 23/8/2011 09:29

All the evidence from Ukraine indicates an exceptional harvest, with only limited crop damage caused by some heavy rain in parts of July. The main risk is to do with crop prices, with exports being held back due to the export tax and a consequent risk of flooding the domestic market. But it's in no one's interest for this to continue - the Govt for example will find the tax counterproductive and are already backtracking (though not to the extent of reducing the tax). And I guess more farmers with storage facilities, including Landkom, will store grain and wait for prices to rise or sell forward (as Landkom has just done).

[darcon] 23/8/2011 09:21

I am trying to understand yesterday's fall in reaction to what I thought had been positive forward sale news. Below is a summary of the negatives in the recent Edison note:

- OSR damage - concern about weather related damage making land "unviable to harvest" and reduced yield in productive land - 7% damage to planted rapeseed area - how will that damage impact on yields?
- Costs - "particularly oil related direct inputs", "inputs are fairly closely related to fluctuations in oil and gas prices and these are beginning to exert upward pressure on the cost base." Edison assume 20% increase in direct costs per hectare.
- VAT treatment uncertain

Specific risks affecting value:
- weather impacts on crop yields
- commodity price falls
- exchange rate volatility (particularly $/UAN and £/$)
- Ukraine macroeconomic and legal environment
- Destabilisation of LKI's land-bank through right-to-buy legislation

[giant steps] 23/8/2011 09:16

21st August 2011

"UK" wheat crop exceeds estimates



Rainfall may be affecting quality

[giant steps] 23/8/2011 07:33

LKI Reminders

22nd August 2011


22nd August 2011



(see higher wheat yields for Ukraine)

[schrodingers_cat] 23/8/2011 00:00

A bit amateurish to look only at EPS.

Underlying Cashflow is more important.

[divinausa1] 22/8/2011 21:56

what if we get expected good harvest results i guess the share price will drop to 4p

daft reaction today, but any ways this one is def hold for better days

[darcon] 22/8/2011 18:45

From ADVFN's evening market bulletin:

"Elsewhere in commodities, Landkom International, the Ukrainian producer of agricultural commodities, wilted a little after saying it has agreed its first forward sale and export of maize this year. The company is selling 30,000 tonnes of its 2011 maize crop for an average of $278 per tonne, excluding value added tax (VAT)."

[loganair] 22/8/2011 16:06

As the cost of our weekly shopping creeps up, the price of the many soft commodities ('softs') are sitting on, or very close to, record levels. A growing global population and alternative energy initiatives fuel demand, while supply crippling weather conditions hinder production.

The principal force behind the soft commodities freight train is the growth of the world population. It's getting crowded and, alarmingly, it took only 12 years to increase from 5 to 6 billion through the late 80's and 1990's. By 2050, it is anticipated there will be 9 billion mouths to feed on the globe.

No matter the economic climate, the population has to eat. However, it is not only food consumption which is underpinning demand.

Alternative energy industry is playing its part. With the United States keen to reduce their dependence on oil there is much weight in place behind plans in place to increase the use of 'biofuels', which in the US means turning corn into fuel.

This wouldn't be necessarily a bad thing in an environment of increasing levels of production. However, this not the case. Far from it. And we believe supply side constraints will be highly supportive of higher prices in the long run.

With US stocks of wheat at their lowest level in 60 years, this shortage is a global phenomenon and there are many reasons why.

In addition, global water shortages continue to prove restrictive. Food production is highly water intensive. According to the UN, agriculture is the number one consumer of freshwater. The industry uses nearly 70 percent of all freshwater taken from lakes and rivers.

The decline of output over the long term is clear in our view. High petroleum prices as well as underinvestment in agriculture technology add to inefficiencies of production. And as the level of housing and business development increase, it is farmlands that are making way.

All factors considered, the current climate of constrained supply in the face of insatiable demand looks set to continue and we believe the price of agricultural commodities will increase over the coming years.

[fund1] 22/8/2011 15:30

I must admit to being very surprised that we are back near the lows
after the continuous flow of decent news. Looks to be a very unloved
share. Would have thought this would have been a healthy sector BWDIK.

[tim000] 22/8/2011 14:48

Ukraine winter wheat harvest averages about 3.5 tons per hectare. LKI aim to beat the national average by up to 50%. Edison say 3.6 tons per ha.

[fund1] 22/8/2011 13:46

I agree usually selling on good news makes sense but it only works if the
share price as risen before the good news this as not been the case here. Can't be many that are selling at a profit after recent activity.

[giant steps] 22/8/2011 13:43

Fund1 - seems like the market works as folk sell on good news

[fund1] 22/8/2011 13:17

Once again down on what I consider to be good news.
I give up with this share.

[qvg] 22/8/2011 11:20

good and unexpected opportunity to top up at 5.2 p

[giant steps] 22/8/2011 10:30

Reminder - see post #1569 and #1572(formatted)



Model Forecast Maize 52000t @ $224 giving $11,648,000


News on Maize today is forecast 60Kt @ $220 giving $13.2m
Seems like good news.