Landkom Share Discussion Threads

[tim000] 03/9/2011 07:15

This article talks a bit about the issues I mention.

[tim000] 03/9/2011 07:09

Incidentally, thank heavens we have a professional in charge now to handle this.

[tim000] 03/9/2011 07:02

I think you're all being unfair on the company at the moment. The harvest has been a good one, no doubt about that. But the company is here to make money for its shareholders and staff, and that requires selling the crop at the best available prices. I'm not a player in the softs markets, but my understanding is that these are tricky at the moment. Russia has had a very good harvest and is taking up a lot of the global capacity for exports (to Egypt etc). Some countries restrict purchases from Ukraine, and the domestic market is nowhere near large enough to handle the crop volumes harvested this year. (That results in depressed prices at home. Notice the company recently forward sold maize to take advantage of global prices, despite the export tariff.) So Ukrainian farmers are in competition against each other to supply limited global demand for Ukrainian crops. On top of that, there is the export tariff to consider - will it stay or be abolished early? Does the company sell into 2012 at much higher prices, but then does it have the storage capacity and the working capital to do that? These are all tricky issues to resolve, and mistakes will be costly. I imagine getting out an RNS to please short-term traders of the company's shares is the least of our CEO's concerns at the moment. If he gets all this right, we will all be well rewarded. The timing of the RNS should be of no concern at all.

[giant steps] 02/9/2011 14:24

EJ, just a comment on the chart - seems like a technical gap correction

[ reminder 7.5p down to 4.75p in 1 month, a drop of 2.75p = 36% ]

[theophilus] 02/9/2011 13:55

This is certainly difficult to understand - - - lots of good news but the price keeps moving South.

Bound to create doubt in the minds of investors. Surely common sense demands a statement afrom the directors.

Still Hopeful

Th

[tim000] 02/9/2011 13:54

If the company knew the harvest results when they said so last week, there's no point saying when they will be released and then not do so. That would only make any sense if the results came as a surprise, subsequent to when they initially said the results would be released. I think that's not likely, and moreover there has not been any negative news on the Ukraine harvest anywhere.

[darcon] 02/9/2011 12:25

1. the company needs to manage investor expectations better. Failing to release information when the company said to expect it creates further uncertainty as to why the delays have occurred.

Is the delay purely for commercial reasons or is the company delaying because the western and central harvests are below expectations. I hope we don't see a 4pm RNS with a lot of bad news thrown in

2. by delaying the release of info LKI gives insiders and some in Ukraine a trading advantage versus rest of us. Again, I hope the recent fall in share price is only a reflection of wider market uncertainty and perhaps some fund exiting Ukraine and not about some insider selling because he knows more than we do

[tim000] 02/9/2011 12:12

One doesn't normally disclose potentally sensitive commercial information to one's competitors and buyers ahead of completing sale transactions.

[giant steps] 02/9/2011 11:03

LKI chart reminder

[loganair] 02/9/2011 10:43

Darcon - I agree as one is talking about how much crop was actually harvested while the question concerning the tariffs is about how much LKI will get for harvested crops.

[darcon] 02/9/2011 09:41

The company stated on 22 August: "The Group has now completed its rapeseed and winter wheat harvest, the results of which are due to be announced next week."

I don't understand why an issue with the export tariff should cause the company to delay publication of its harvest results after it said they were due to be published this week. To the extent questions about the export duties remain they can always be addressed in a subsequent announcement.

[tim000] 02/9/2011 07:20

It seems unlikely the results will be released today, which wouldn't surprise me. The results were known to the company last week, the intention to publish this week was probably due to other considerations (such as making crop sales in advance of announcing the results). Since last week there is new uncertainty about when the export tariff will be abolished. Initially there were no plans to abolish it, then the Agriculture Ministry wanted to get rid of it immediately, then the Finance Ministry said they ddn't want the loss of income, then the Agriculture Ministry said they would look at other ways of compensating farmers for exports. The result is that it's difficult to know whether to make any crop sales now or later. And that uncertainty might delay announcing the harvest results. In my view this also makes a case for changing the results period back to a calendar year, to incorporate sales made after the harvest finishes in October.

[divinausa1] 01/9/2011 14:58

results tomorrow then, reminder of the southern ops dramatic improved yields...

Hybridan Small Cap Wrap Landkom International (LON:LKI 7.62p /£33.17m)The Ukrainian producer of agricultural commodities has completed the harvest in the Group's southern operations with dramatically improved yields. The winter barley yield for the south was up 110 per cent to 4.03 tonnes per hectare (ha) (2010: 1.9 tonnes per ha), with the winter wheat yield up 50 per cent to 3.23 tonnes per ha (2010: 2.2 tonnes per ha). The substantially improved yields were obtained due to more efficient harvesting equipment completing the harvest within the optimum time period. The harvest in the west, Landkom's largest region, and the central region is now well underway. Weather conditions in the West are currently good, following some poor weather last week, which caused a limited amount of damage to approximately 7 per cent of the rapeseed crop.
London South East

[kimboy2] 30/8/2011 23:38

Alpoy Agro yields

2011 2010
Winter wheat 2.9t/ha 1.7t
Winter rape 2.5t 2.25t
Barley 2.5t 2.24t

[giant steps] 30/8/2011 22:44

HT, good questions - need to wait for company news


LKI reminder

30th August 2011

Ukraine sees record maize harvest, export

[hightech] 30/8/2011 17:14

Hi Giant,
If the same applies to LKI in terms of harvest rate etc, what would be the likely profit and share price?

Was the harvest by LandKom similar to Alpcot Agro last year?

[giant steps] 30/8/2011 13:26

Observe "70 percent higher yield for winter wheat and 25 percent higher yield for winter rape."

Coupled with the remark "Milder weather conditions as well as considerable operational improvements over the last year have contributed to the better performance this year."


Get the feeling comments may be applicable to LKI ?


Reminder for Alpcot Agro AB - 30th August 2011

[tim000] 29/8/2011 06:53

Little or no rain for weeks now. That not only assists harvesting, it also keeps costs down by not requiring (expensive) drying of the harvested crop.

[tim000] 26/8/2011 17:00

I'm expecting the wheat harvest to be at least 4 tonnes per ha. The figures are important because wheat will account for about 25% of total harvest revenues. I've got 3.3 tonnes per ha for OSR, which is another 40% of revenue.

Looking at the last RNS, LKI has sold maize at $278 per tonne, for delivery in November/December. If the export tariff is abolished before November delivery, then LKI won't have to pay the export tax and the net price will be about 10% higher than the announced $220.

[darcon] 26/8/2011 14:53

At what point are the export duties triggered? I assume its at the time and point of export and not when the forward sale contracts were executed.

It would be helpful if LKI could clarify next week.

[tim000] 26/8/2011 14:24

Very good news on the possible cancellation of the export tariff

[giant steps] 26/8/2011 13:24

LKI Reminders - good news for exporters


Ukraine Ministry of Agrarian Policy initiates cancellation of customs duties on grain exports

26th August 2011



Ukraine can export 24 million tons of grain this year

25th August 2011

[beeks of arabia] 24/8/2011 08:30

Bought more this morning.