Landkom Share Discussion Threads

[giant steps] 21/9/2011 08:12

Which bit, partial or all ?

[kimboy2] 21/9/2011 08:05

The fuel pellet story is incorrect.

[darcon] 19/9/2011 16:53

Thanks pindock.

Maybe they will be able to get a loan from EBRD like UKR did for upgrading their factory

[kimboy2] 19/9/2011 16:34

Well I think they will get a bit over £100/t for the pellets which for 25kt is £2.5m.

At 60% net margin that is a profit of £1.5m. Cost of plant £6m.

Seems a good idea but still think the most likely course is a takeover.

[pindock] 19/9/2011 15:44

From Concorde Capital:

16.09.2011
Landkom to build USD 10 mln fuel pellet production plant
Landkom International (LSE: LKI LI, N/R) plans to build a USD 10 mln fuel pellet production plant by November 2012, a company official said yesterday at a conference (via Interfax). The plant is expected to produce 25 ths mt of pellets p.a. from straw, at a net margin of 60-62%.

[darcon] 19/9/2011 12:04

What factory? I'm aware of storage facilities, but not a pellet factory.

[giant steps] 19/9/2011 08:12

I wonder how LKI are going to finance the $10m pellet factory (by Nov 2012)

[divinausa1] 16/9/2011 23:01

i wonder what triggered the late afternoon buying
remember folks the land they lease is a valuable asset...

[schrodingers_cat] 16/9/2011 16:19

Well they need to deliver something to shareholders after having given the impression of decent upcoming harvest and issuing themselves 6p options.

[fritz1930] 16/9/2011 14:39

It has become very quiet around here now, it seems to me that once again all the speculations have gone wrong, for the farmer that is nothing new, grandpa knew it allalong. Will there be any chance of ever geting our money back ???

[giant steps] 10/9/2011 20:31

Kimboy2, seems others such as BG Capital have changed their view
from neutral to negative.

Observe EBITDA est. under $5m, that's some difference from say
Liberum (March'11) with forecast nearer to $20m.



"Landkom unlikely to break even on 30% rape yield fall. Downgrade"

7th September 2011

[beeks of arabia] 09/9/2011 11:44

Of course, the "I told you so" brigade always seem to come out on results day if there are issues. Envirovision did the same whining on UKC reults a few months ago and seems to be doing the same here.

Hosede is happy to harp on and filter anyone who disagrees with him on the FDI thread, even though shareholders are diluted into oblivion every 6 months and the price is down 30% from when I last looked (and sold).

[kimboy2] 09/9/2011 10:24

I don't necessarily think it was insider trading. The fact is that rape is very susceptible to bad weather at harvest. In particular hail will just knock it straight out the pod.

If you happened to know that those were the conditions that were faced in the particular areas where LKI were then the result was presictable.

I notice that rape results for the country as a whole were in fact up.

[hosede] 09/9/2011 10:17

The share price fell into the update - no possibility of insider trading of course!

[glyn10] 09/9/2011 08:09

In regards to weather causing crop damage you don't need a consultant, it is very easy to spot.

Anybody investing in an agribusiness knows that some years you win, some you loose and some you break even that is the nature of the business. On this occasion the company failed to notify the shareholders of the crop damage before the harvest, that is very bad form.

[envirovision] 09/9/2011 07:45

You dont need additional expertise, thats why you have consultants like UkrAgroConsult.

I think its just a case missled shareholders.

[darcon] 09/9/2011 04:35

It's easier to find warnings once they have materialized. I found the above article on bloomberg which flagged potential of Ukrainian rapeseed crop to under perform this year back in May. It makes me wonder whether there weren't perhaps earlier indications apparent to a "trained eye" in LKI's western fields that the rapeseed crop was going to generate lower yields than expected.

If so, then it would raise a question mark over the competence of whoever it was at LKI that made the crop forecasts for rapeseed and on the basis of which the additional 5,000 tonne forward contract was purchased (for which there is now a shortfall). In my personal opinion someone at the company may need to be sacked or at least additional rapeseed expertise bought to reduce the risk of this type of screw-up (but will they be able to afford it?).

[5huggy] 08/9/2011 21:27

Thanks Beeks

[beeks of arabia] 08/9/2011 18:48

Nothing wrong with that 5Huggy!

I wish you all the best with your investment.

[5huggy] 08/9/2011 18:32

BEEKS - YES - im waiting and watching but will still likely build a touch as it goes lower (perhaps!)

[giant steps] 08/9/2011 18:18

jake, why don't you use your schrodingers_cat a/c to avoid confusion ?


edit : or rodozz, bonanza grades, higgs boson, TheKlf ...aka too many to mention !

[jake lonergan] 08/9/2011 18:06

wow maybe you should go and tell your granny how to suck eggs as well ?

[qvg] 08/9/2011 17:58

many of these postive posts seem to be looking at the postive medium and long term future for a farming business in the Ukraine. can't argue with that. but my reading of the RNS and my simple maths tells me that LKI has a cash crisis. anybody who has been in such a situation knows that a cash crisis is very detrimental to equity holders wealth.

[loganair] 08/9/2011 14:14

I've had a chat with my broker this morning.

Originally he advised me, which I posted that LKI Fair Value for 2011 was 10p per share if no more than 20% of crop lost and 12p if less than 5% at the yields that were expected.

He now says that as long as the rest of the harvest comes in as expected then Fair Value for LKI is around 6p to 7p and for 2012 the same as for this year at 10p and 12p respectively down from 12p and 15p respectively.

[divinausa1] 08/9/2011 14:01

3800 - 8 Sep'11 - 12:45 - 2070 of 2071

Doe's anyone know of a loss making company which has joined AIM that has subsequently gone on to make a profit and pay a dividend? I was hoping that LKI was going to break the mould of loss making overseas high risk companies. It hasn't yet and by the tone of the RNS more money will be required for this to be a ongoing concern. I'm not sure how much the shares are currently worth but 3.3p would seem rather generous under the circumstances.
3800
========

The market cap is just £15m look at the increase in turnover and the landbank they have on lease +assets and you think its only worth 3p. How much do you think they would get if they sold the business, just £15m dream on....