Just Car Clinics Share Discussion Threads

[aleman] 17/2/2014 08:28

JCR looks to be over twice as big on the numbers available although they can be very misleading over just one year and without seeing cashflows. Don't you think it looks to be a different order from more than we delisted at?

At the very least, I like the news that Basford were trading slightly ahead of last year. I believe UK motorists have been driving more miles and the weather has been so wet.

Another related matter is that my car insurance search results for this year are about 30% below last year's. (Lowest was only £159 for comprehensive, actually. That's the lowest I can ever remember, bearing in mind I've been at max no claims for two decades as I've never had a claim.) JCR's cycle could be turning up.

[harrogate] 17/2/2014 08:14

Not sure about that figure!!! But certainly the 30p last year is too low. Messes up NARG a good bit though and makes it less likely that NARS would buy JCR.

[aleman] 17/2/2014 07:50

NARS acquires Howard Basford.



Similar price for JCR would be maybe £10m to £18m or about 80-150p per share.

[aleman] 06/2/2014 16:51

The website has had a makeover. Looks like they've made it a bit easier for touch screens. The content looks pretty much the same.

[harrogate] 14/1/2014 16:15

HNY Aleman. Good spot. Sounds sensible to me and as you say will be more of this. When I met them in October I asked about this and it is the leases that stop more of it I think. I wonder if the NARS situation with QPP is unsettling any insurers to the benefit of JCR. I decided not to sell any of mine in the tender but would take 40p I think now.

[aleman] 14/1/2014 13:54

First of a few mergers I would guess ... working around the clock, perhaps?



Merging the two sites will enable us to provide a highly professional and supportive management structure for the team and give us the opportunity to look at the possibility of introducing alternative working patterns which many of our team can benefit from.

[liarspoker] 27/9/2013 00:32

That's good news.

I was sitting on a +-100% profit excluding dividends received so I tendered all of my shares.

Good luck to those still holding I am sure you'll be offered a higher price in the future for your shares.

I'll keep watching the story with interest.

[aleman] 26/9/2013 12:27

805,766 shares tendered and accepted in full, so about 6% fewer shares left.

hxxp://www.justcarclinics.co.uk/accounts/

[aleman] 25/9/2013 09:59

I thought about it but decided not to tender any shares. I'm wondering if they'll get the 10% they intended.

[harrogate] 25/9/2013 07:47

Fascinating move and while I agree it puts JCR out of the QPP running I donlt believe that would have happened anyway since JCR not national, Muts good for valuation in the sector though.
I went to see the guys at JCR last week and have not accepted since I feel the yield is too good and and there is more to come trading wise. Nothing too specific but they are doing the right things and are very solid. Based on NARS new multiple I think we are worth 50p a share but the question is can we get the value out..time will tell

[rmillaree] 25/9/2013 07:29

Doh Quindell just bought a boatload of Nars shares at 85p.
Presumably that makes it less likely they will be interested in JCR.

[alan1972] 12/9/2013 23:09

Interesting the documents note only 28,100 shares sold under the matched bargain facility since it was set up. Average price between 17p and 20 p

[aleman] 11/9/2013 15:58

I was only disagreeing about how wet it was. I'm guessing these numbers could be bettered in H1 2014 with average weather but that is just a bit of a gut feeling and could be off the mark. It all depends on when, where and how it occurs rather than just the totals at the end. I don't think I've ever seen monthly/annual wind totals and they contribute!

[harrogate] 11/9/2013 15:33

I should have known that getting into an argument about weather with Ale would be a dangerous thing to do!!! I don't think your rainfall stats are valid necessarily since say Jan - March were not wet but very frosty and icey and then April - June dry that might be better than a warm winter and a very wet spring... rainfall doesn't tell all the tale and I think that given the margin pressure has reduced profit by £668k that is a much more important issue

[aleman] 11/9/2013 15:04

The resolution for the General Meeting is for the Company to make an off-market purchase of shares.

[rmillaree] 11/9/2013 14:45

Well if nothing else - this gives those that want to exit a mechanism to do so - and those that stay own more of the company.

I would be happy to sell at 50p - so hopefully they may come back in six months after a stonking H2 and offer to hoover some more up at the higher price.

Always risky not taking a chance that may not be repeated though - as no one knows what is going to happen in the future.

Would i be correct in presuming it is the company buying the shares to cancel?

[rmillaree] 11/9/2013 14:26

oops i am a bit slow on the uptake - ignore that last post

[rmillaree] 11/9/2013 14:25

Anyone wanting to sell their shares at 30p ??

[aleman] 11/9/2013 14:18

Harrogate - I make the national average rainfall about 85% in H1 2013 versus about 113% of average in H1 2012. Nationally, May was wetter than average in 2012 but the other 5 months drier than average.



Regional maps suggest Yorkshire was wetter than the national average last year and drier than the national average this year, magnifying the national trend. If you look at regional maps, I would translate JCR's area (adding in Durham and the Midlands, and stretching towards Bristol) for the 6 months as slightly dry, slightly dry, average, extremely dry, wet, dry. I would put last year at slightly dry, dry, very dry, extremely wet, average, extremely wet. Clearly, for JCR this year is drier. However, it has to be remembered that one of the reasons for less rain in March was the extreme cold. Given March and May may have flattered numbers slightly but the other months possibly detracted, and last year's numbers probably benefitted from the rain, if anything, I think today's numbers are slightly better than they first appear and H1 2014 could be even better if weather turns out average or more wintery or wet.



(My own locality possibly magnifies this even further. Out nearest weather station was extremely wet last year, breaking records. It has been extremely dry this year (although we had a bit more snow). Not only have the weeds not been growing but neither has the grass until recent weeks. It's saved me quite a bit if cutting. Being such a local trend, it's hard to say if it has any significant bearing but it is right in the heart of JCR's territory.)




I sympathise with fears about squeezing out small shareholders, abusing pay and options, and so forth. Up to now, putting aside the anxiety of the delisting, I think they've treated us okay. Still, my holding isn't as heavy as yours so I can afford to be more relaxed. If you feel that nervous, perhaps it might suit you to lighten your holding a bit, although that's your call, of course. I haven't yet ruled it out. I still think there are probably better years ahead for the company, though, and I'm inclined to trust the directors based on previous experience.

I have to agree that 40p would have seen me inclined to cash in. I feel I could have found suitable replacement investments at that level. At 30p, on dividends, earnings and cashflow, I will struggle.

[spaceparallax] 11/9/2013 13:04

In an uncertain world, it's nice to have a modest interest in a solid, well-run business that hasn't got too carried away in aggressively pursuing market share. If only there were still more businesses of this type rather than the American model mega business that bullies suppliers and strangles opposition and then f....s up the economy when it's shown to be overstretched.

H,

are you into ALK and FIF? Both looking very solid and realising potential.

[harrogate] 11/9/2013 12:55

We shall see ...I agree it is a bit mean and 40p would have been ok for me as it happens too !

[spaceparallax] 11/9/2013 12:48

The 30pps offer ain't worth taking in my view given the solidity and future prospects of the business. I think the offer's been badly pitched - 40p might have tempted some, but can't see many takers at this level.

[harrogate] 11/9/2013 12:12

The key though of course is that they could just decide to stop dividends,pay themselves massive bonuses, award themselves options. I do think that the weather is not the main driver of the results of these companies. The market has changed it is smaller and more competitive and see no reason for that to change I don't think it was dry in H1 at all ... April and May were very wet. It has been very dry since early June compared to last year so maybe not that good in H2 .. Who knows but 30p is worth a think I believe

[aleman] 11/9/2013 12:05

The paperwork has just come through my letterbox.

I haven't decided yet but I am considering not giving up any shares at all. If the contracts help H2 turnover in a similar fashion, margins recover slightly and the tender improves cashflow and earnings per share by 11%, the shares could look rather cheap at 30p. Where I live in the middle of JCR territory, it was drier than average in H1, as well, although I know the UK was a mixed bag and some places were wetter than average.

[harrogate] 11/9/2013 11:05

Good spot. Great revenue growth but eaten away by margin pressure it would seem.

Cash egneration partly down to build up of debtors at Dec unwindingbut also very low compared to June 12. Great effort.

30p seems a fairish price given the market but assuming they make the same EBITDA as last H2 which might be conservative giben the new contracts it is only about 3 x 2013 EBITDA ... decisions decisons !!