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John Menzies Share Discussion Threads
Showing 751 to 775 of 775 messages
|Perhaps the stronger cable most recently will provide an opportunity to add.|
|That's a great write-up from Milkwood, thanks - good to see another bull in the camp.
I'm still hoping for a more significant pullback towards the initial theoretical ex-rights price (call it 540p-ish) ahead of results, in order to buy back my pre-TU sales, but maybe that ship has sailed...|
|Looking at Bloomberg this was released yesterday
Milkwood Capital Likes Menzies, Sees Up to 50% Upside
By Melissa Karsh
Milkwood Capital is bullish on John Menzies Plc, according to Rhys Summerton, founder and chief investment officer of the global equity long-short hedge fund.
The Scottish company, which has separate aviation and distribution units, is Milkwood’s biggest investment, which it has owned since the fourth quarter of 2015 when it was trading at about 330 pence per share, Summerton said in a Jan. 18 telephone interview. The stock closed at 603 pence on Jan. 26.
"There’s probably 40 percent to 50 percent upside in Menzies," Summerton said. "Although it’s listed in the U.K., most of its profit is in U.S. dollars, so we would expect the value of the share to re-rate as those earnings come through and translate from dollars into pounds."
Read more: Hedge Funds Europe Brief
Summerton said he sees value being discovered this year through a combination of better operating performance from the company’s aviation business and management efforts to unlock value.
"We think that management will work at unlocking value by having a separate listing of the aviation business. This could be achieved by spinning off the distribution business," he said. "The benefit of the company is that it’s made up of really cheap parts. Even if you look at the businesses on a combined basis, it’s still incredibly cheap at only about 10 times forward earnings. Trade buyers generally pay between 15 to 18 times for these businesses."
Menzies didn’t immediately comm|
|Thanks 1GW. I didn't see that.|
|Peel Hunt nudged their target price up to 630p last week according to N&P.
|Subdued relative to the recent share price run. Now trading more than 10% ahead of the theoretical ex-rights price on my calcs and about 25% ahead of its post-rights low.|
|Fairly subdued? I would remind you that this is a world leading company on 10x earnings, with growth. If you have anything that comes close to it, I'd love to know.|
|No obvious "sell on the news" evident this morning, despite a fairly subdued update relative to the recent share price growth. It does sound like good news at Gatwick though, which makes a nice change.
|And I've just put another tranche through today, which should give me some capacity to buy back if there's any "sell on the news" with a January TU.|
|Just taken a bit of profit, selling about 1/4 of my holding. I'm looking forward to the next trading update, but they've bounced 20% in 2 months and are now well above the theoretical ex-rights price (on my calcs).|
|I am sure this was prepared for. More interestingly, Swissport staff seem to have been underpaid relative to Menzies...|
|This is the CMA announcement referred to in the Menzies rns this morning. It appears to give Menzies 1 week to come up with a "remedy" for Aberdeen airport to avoid a full investigation into the merger. I imagine the easiest remedy to offer would be a promise of the sale of the ASIG operations there to a third party - while possibly not maximising value given the conditions (i.e. a forced sale) that might be a small price to pay to get the acquisition through quickly.
|Thank you for posting that. I haven't seen those.|
|A couple of new broker ratings recently helping to maintain momentum I think:
5th Dec: Numis resumes with BUY & 650p target
2nd Dec: Berenberg initiates with BUY & 660p target
|The share price still hasn't really got back to where it was at the time of the rights issue. 615p pre-rights equates to about 543p I think as a theoretical ex-rights price.
Today's trading update is (marginally) encouraging, although I think they've put back the expected acquisition completion date from late 2016 to early 2017. I'm not sure Menzies ever gave the "late 2016" date but I remember seeing it somewhere - perhaps attributed to the seller. But in any case I think there's still scope for the share price to run purely to catch up with where it was before the market indigestion caused by the rights issue. And the longer sterling stays down at these levels, the more sustained the currency translation upside should be.|
|Big breakout on a good statement:
"The Group continues to trade well and the Board is confident of being marginally ahead of current market expectations. Additionally, the Group continues to benefit from foreign exchange tailwinds which will further enhance the full year result. "
Jumped in for a trade on the back of the breakout and strong book - buyers queuing up.|
|Up, up and away?|
|Could be. It looks like BNY has something to do with Frankfurter Aktienfonds für Stiftungen, the Shareholder Value Management fund.
The FT tear sheet is a bit confusing as it lists SVM and Mellon as holding positions (and also Bank Hapoalim (Schweiz) AG), although with different dates.
The rights prospectus just listed SVM, holding 4.3m shares as of 14th September and expected to go to 5.9m shares if they took up their rights.
The RNS today shows BNY going from 4.8m shares to 8.4m as a result of converting rights.
So perhaps they increased from the 4.3m shown in the prospectus to 4.8m by buying shares and then exercised rights and bought more rights to take them to the 8.4 in today's declaration.
If that is what has happened, and if Kabouter and Lakestreet did take up their rights then that would put the 3 at over 30% between them:
12.1% Kabouter (from prospectus)
10.1% SVM (if the BNY holding is theirs)
8.5% Lakestreet (from prospectus)|
|I think that is a proxy...|
|Well there's a turnup. BNY emerges from nowhere as the biggest declared shareholder (at least pending Kabouter's post-rights disclosure) with 10.1%.|
|Sub 9x PE, I doubt there is better value (in terms of a risk / reward payoff) close to what Menzies is offering.|
|Thank you. It's nice when a trade idea works so cleanly.
I've just bought back a third tranche at 480p, which takes me pretty close to the holding I would have had if I had exercised all my rights. So done for now and hoping for a quick bounce back once the market has finished digesting the rights and starts to focus on the fundamentals again.|
|Excellent work 1gw. A very skilful call you made.|
|Just bought a second tranche back at 479p. I guess this morning's drop is trying to find a home for the shares not taken up in the rights issue.|
|And that's me starting to buy back in with a purchase at 498p. It looks like things have stabilised at this level although there may still be a reasonable rump of lapsed rights to sell on or around 27th.|