Menzies(john) Share Discussion Threads

[buffettjnr] 10/2/2022 19:31

This is going to 600p at least. The “at least” is new based on my latest understanding.

[georgie pie] 10/2/2022 19:08

Perhaps todays RNS rejection explanation is giving the heads up to any potential suitors on the sidelines that this is what they are looking for! ONO.

[nobilis] 10/2/2022 16:39

goldman sack

[csmwssk12hu] 10/2/2022 16:37

Same auction as yesterday for all the sell off we are back at 478, someone is buying these up imho dyor

[dougmachin] 10/2/2022 15:51

For Philipp Joeinig...

At 510p he gets 12.96 million
At 560p he gets 14.23 million
At 600p he gets 15.25 million

Between 15.25 and 14.23, does he care?

On page 9 of the bid defence, that's a good slide... offering the same as pre-pandemic levels... nope. No way. It's gotta be more than 510p.

But is Joeinig greedy for the increase to 15.25 million, when he's getting 14.23 in cash. I don't think so.

MNZS is his baby, he knows it inside out and he's telling NAS to get a life and come back with a bid that's above the pre-pandemic share price

Bid defence link:

[mammyoko] 10/2/2022 15:38

Biggest risk is is that the pride of the bidder will get in the way of doing a deal here. Could see final offer at 550p next week which I think would also be rejected and consequent retrace to 350p-380p.

I would think they are going to need to bid at least £6 to persuade BoD and not sure, from today's RNS and failure to conclude a deal behind the scenes, that they are prepared to offer the right amount for the BoD to accept.

[georgie pie] 10/2/2022 15:21

Im expecting to see an improved offer coming early next week, the Arabs would of had a strategy in place and new numbers ready to roll, £6-£7 might get this over the line.

[deanowls] 10/2/2022 14:46

If anyone was to take over I always expected it to be Dnata, unsure on the competition laws or % each company has in uk and Australia that may pose a problem.

[sikhthetech] 10/2/2022 14:43

mammy
"'we think we're worth £9.60'. Can't see that turning into a deal done at £5.10. "

The 510p has already been rejected, so why would it be a deal done at 510p??

[buffettjnr] 10/2/2022 14:37

The best way to demonstrate this bid is too low is for the Chairman of Menzies to drive down the road to the nearest funder, and put a bid on the table for 600p and take it private. Then we will see our friends from Kuwait bring out the heavy artillery….

[csmwssk12hu] 10/2/2022 14:33

Looks like a counter bid on way?

[buffettjnr] 10/2/2022 14:32

Oh Faruk, that is cute…but wrong

[farukequity] 10/2/2022 14:28

I see the biggest risk here to be MNZS board's egos and grandeur visions of future performance.Reality is MNZS balance sheet is very weak and while they've made a lot of progress over the past two years to streamline the business and win several new contracts, the bid is not unreasonable. The NAS statement this morning was very well crafted I thought, to appeal to both BOD and large MNZS investors, while also highlighting downside risks of the deal falling through. I'd expect one final offer with small bid increase, which should hopefully clinch it.We don't know what BOD is truly thinking and what are they hearing from major investors, hence the risk factor and share price trending lower than the bid proposal.

[mammyoko] 10/2/2022 14:23

The point I'm making is that slides 7 and 8 say 'we think we're worth £9.60'. Can't see that turning into a deal done at £5.10. I agree with Swen Lorenz that they will need to bid at least £6. Even at that price and based on Berenberg's £68m EBITDA estimate only implies a 10.4x multiple.

If they walk away we could see a fall to say 350p but given there's been a bidder at 510p and that they're cheap anyway at that level even without the possible explosion in flying that seems likely this summer, then should find support. So upside of £1.50, downside of say £1 but with probability skewed in favour of the former. Looks a reasonable bet even at these prices as Swen says.

DYOR

[hamhamham1] 10/2/2022 14:17

I'm upping my demand to 600p, greedy me ;)

[hamhamham1] 10/2/2022 14:15

It's better that a rival operator bids, rather than a Private Equity firm, a rival will pay market value (or more) to gain market share, PE will want to pay under market value so they can spin it off at a later date for a juicy profit.

[sikhthetech] 10/2/2022 14:08

Mammy,

"I'm not sure that £6 would persuade the BoD - if they genuinely believe their EBITDA forecast then £6 still implies only a 7x multiple."

In any negotiation, any company's BoD would say their business is worth more than any bid. The risk is if the BoD's expectation is too high then the bidder will walk.


PE may show an interest but they are there to make money so wouldn't pay anywhere near 'full value'.

If the BoD's valuation was credible then the share price would already be around 700-800p, as their figures are already in the public domain.

[archy147] 10/2/2022 14:07

mammyoko - if that was a credible forecast then the market would believe it and we'd be at £7 now?

[aishah] 10/2/2022 14:02

Bid defence presentation:

[qs99] 10/2/2022 14:01

MMs played a blinder, dropping price, weak sellers DYOR

[albanyvillas] 10/2/2022 13:59

Ahh soz mate
Nice way to quarantine with Menzies bid, you must have been jumping for joy

[dougmachin] 10/2/2022 13:57

ALBANYVILLAS ???

I'm talking about the increase of 50p extra per share.

That's 0.5 quid * 2.54 million shares = 1.27 million quid extra for 560p vs 510p.

I think... I have been in quarantine all week!

[hamhamham1] 10/2/2022 13:53

Once we get into the Spring, and Summer bookings for foreign holidays rack up, Menzies will be in a stronger position, so it would make sense for NAS to put in a full and final tasty bid to secure agreement from shareholders. Imagine they would want it out there and accepted by end of this month???

[george stobart] 10/2/2022 13:51

arabs likely to reduce their bid to 430p because they've just learned that Menzies runs a dodgy fishy business

[albanyvillas] 10/2/2022 13:51

dougmachin10 Feb '22 - 13:41 - 1986 of 1989
0 1 0
Philipp Joeinig has 2,541,379 shares.

So for him, a bid at 560p vs 510p is worth 1.27 million quid.



No! £12.7m