Fisher (james) & Sons Share Discussion Threads

[redartbmud] 03/9/2015 16:19

rivaldo

I do like people who look on the bright side.

red

[roddiemac2] 03/9/2015 16:14

??? You might get lucky rivaldo. you might not.

[rivaldo] 03/9/2015 11:40

FSJ have now been dropped out of the FTSE250 following last night's FTSE rejig after the poor results:



And Canaccord have dropped their price target to 1050p:



The latest broker forecasts from Singer and Canaccord are for around 66p EPS this year and 66p-69p EPS next year.

I'd say a price of around 900p-1000p would be fair value at present given the above.

[bouleversee] 26/8/2015 14:30

In today's Times, Tempus is advising "Hold for the yield". LOL.

Had intended to buy today but no time this morning and with such a jump will wait to see if there is a set back.

[tintin82] 26/8/2015 10:57

Phillis, calm down, settle pettle, we are all friends here looking to make money. My FSJ trades as you ask11/13 buy 10.8006/14 sell 13.4011/14 buy 10.9003/15 sell 12.4008/15 buy 10.00All the best, good luck

[phillis] 26/8/2015 10:34

take a jump roddie please
and take of the rose tinted spectacles
ok value at current levels

you might wants to analyse the ROCE over time

Lots of acquisitons and reduced earnings

[redartbmud] 25/8/2015 21:49

illis

A good analysis, very insightful. I agree that it is reasonable value at these levels. Roll on better times.

red

[illiswilgig] 25/8/2015 21:10

Using the ratio of post tax diluted 'Statutory' 2014 EPS H1 to H2 (not underlying) I get an annualised EPS of 74p - this is lower than the 77.4p still being shown on Digital look - so some downgrade for the full year to be expected? Or not? Be interesting to see if this does happen?

At the closing price of 982p gives an P/E of 13.2

Using underlying diluted 2014 EPS reduces the annual outturn to 69p (underlying) a current underlying P/E of around 14.2

Mr Spock (1506) excellent calculation averages the last three years outcome to give us a P/E of 15.4 - with H1 at 46% of annual profit.

A range of P/E from 13.2 to 15.4 depending upon how you calculate it. Take your pick?

Directors outlook statement - 'We expect to see a stronger second half with good trading continuing in Specialist Technical and Tankships, reinforced by a resumption of growth in Marine Support.'

54% of the profit does indeed rate as a stronger second half - though only just and I think we're being steered towards a better result than that with growth in three divisions and the offshore oil division stabilised.

No big deal either way - right now I reckon it's reasonably valued as it is. But in the long term its undervalued and FSJ could be rerated on its longterm prospects once again. When? Well I'd be rich if I knew that,

cheers

[redartbmud] 25/8/2015 19:29

Filter button Phyllis!

[roddiemac2] 25/8/2015 19:07

Phillis,

We are used to friendly discussion on this board. Rudeness and boasting is not welcome here.
You might like to consider that many of the posters here have been in this stock since the shares traded at less than a pound. The dividend payout now , expressed as a percentage of their original capital outlay makes up for any relatively short term downward price movements .The real money is always made long term.

Be polite , or don`t post here.

[phillis] 25/8/2015 17:01

tin head

a reasonable business model but simply overvalued

began selling down between £13-14

How about you?

[peterbill] 25/8/2015 17:00

Last full year divi (2014) was 22p and with the share price just under a tenner - a yield of 2.2% looks about right if they are able to keep it the same as last year.

Takes a few minutes to plot a graph of divis over the years from 1998 - 3.2p to 2014 - 22p

Divi growth is in double figures for most years - increasing all the time.

[wolf of wall street] 25/8/2015 16:46

shame we didnt get into positive ground today.

[tintin82] 25/8/2015 16:44

Thanks Phillis for that very informative and well thought out post. You have clearly researched FSJ thoroughly as your words are truly compelling and really challenge the bull case on all levels. Bravo. Please let us know any other nuggets of indispensable information that you may share with us, as I think all will agree this is wonderful.

[phillis] 25/8/2015 16:39

still well overvalued at 60p EPS annualised

[roddiemac2] 25/8/2015 16:04

Many stocks I am watching are up between 3 and 5% today after recent falls: little logic in that ; I have seen it all before . This sort of short term volatility enables the small investor to buy appreciable amounts of stock relative to their overall worth, when institutions are not able to do the same .

FSJ still looks like a company to hold for life . having top lopped or added several times since first investing , my stance is unchanged ---HOLD .

[mr_spock] 25/8/2015 15:11

This is a business with a great niche and barriers to entry and I've been waiting to get back in here, but quick calculation based on average of underlying diluted eps for H1 2012/13/14 implies H1 accounts for 46% of full year eps.
So best guess for full year eps (H1 29.5p) could be around 63.8p?
At a price of 985p this would equate to a PE of 15.4.
Maybe not a massive bargain given the current unpredictable situation in oil.

Accept this is a share for the long term. It's just a matter of timing.

[apad] 25/8/2015 14:29

Compare the graphs of FSj and HTG over different portions of the last year, b.
I reckon it's 'cos FSJ has been holding up better than other (perceived) O&G service stocks.
apad

[bouleversee] 25/8/2015 14:23

Why do you suppose many/most other shares have gone up today but Fisher has gone further down?

[bouleversee] 25/8/2015 12:19

Well done on both counts, Roddiemac. Two thousand shares is quite a lot to add wshen already overweight. Shows great confidence. Might add a few more myself. Also overweight as a family so a big drop on paper for us. The ones I gave my grandchildren are well under water.

[roddiemac2] 25/8/2015 12:02

Up late this morning ---Involved in saving someone`s life last night.

I am overweight in these , but have added two thousand a few minutes ago. Markets are seldom logical. Our own ideas are often the best.

[illiswilgig] 25/8/2015 10:12

I agree, good results under the circumstances.

I like the way that they continue to make targetted acquisitions in a distressed market - in the long term they are preparing for future growth.

Very good result from Tankships,

I have enough of these already but I bought a few more for the longer term this morning.

[apad] 25/8/2015 08:57

I've just taken the acquisition out of the cashflow statement and now I don't understand the market reaction to the results. We're all holders, I guess, so who can explain the reaction?
I'd be choosing to add if I had free funds but the market response might put me off.
Divvy increase and an attractive PER. Puzzling.
apad