Ithaca Energy Share Discussion Threads

[whiskeyinthejar] 23/9/2016 14:22

Low volume here. I think the gamblers and t20 traders are playing elsewhere, so Id say most holding just now are longer term investors and understand that 3 months is just an estimate.

Id like an update because its boring waiting and Im impatient. But news isn't expected until early November when we should get a periodical update regardless of fpf1 status.

Other news becomes more likely now imo. With cash flow about to surge, anyone like Delek thinking of buying ithaca would see a return on their money rather sooner than if they were to buy Ithaca say last year. IMO the ceo of Delek isn't sitting on board of Ithaca for good of his health.

[bountyhunter] 23/9/2016 10:25

I agree that an update on progress would be good to see given that the last update was at sail-away (except for the half-year financial results). Re Petrofac they have a 20% working interest in GSA ( ) so I would expect that they would like to see first oil from Stella asap.

[fsawatcher] 23/9/2016 10:15

12 week from sailaway put it at nov 1st but it now over half way now

pmo solan woz good guide yet peeps got that wrong by about 5 weeks

problem with iae management is they bein in hands of petrofac

petrofac paid in oil so they gonna stretch it out , hopin oil get back above $55pb by time full production flows

they lost bonus payment deal months ago so no incentive remain for them to be fast

this drift down to high 50's if no news soon

mid 40's if they hit more delays

[bountyhunter] 22/9/2016 20:54

Yes doesn't take much to get a heated response over there! There are a few knowledgable posters though but also a couple of disruptive posters intent on destroying the board.
I see what you mean about the possible (IAE) RNS now; I agree there could well be an update on completion of the subsea work ahead of final commissioning and first oil.

[whiskeyinthejar] 22/9/2016 19:43

Their argument I think is that if iae have finished the subsea comissioning then that deserves an update.

So rns maybe describes two phases. Subsea and "thereafter":

"Following the tow the FPF-1 will be moored on location using twelve pre-installed anchor chains. The dynamic risers and umbilicals that connect the subsea infrastructure to the vessel will then be installed. Thereafter, commissioning of the various processing and utility systems that can only be undertaken on location with hydrocarbons from the field will be completed."

Reasonable question imo for Ithaca is not when they plan to update, but at what stage. Or just regular 3 monthly update beginning November.


Im not going to say much more on SOU board. I only had a sneaky trade to ride the bubble a bit and then exited. But after that I then got called a moron for pointing out obvious double top forming on SOU two days ago. Since then price has fallen by about 25%.

Im often wrong, but I try to use my own judgement and try to spread risk. Too many imo are putting trust in the board 'experts' to go all in with all their savings when these experts seem far too certain of situation when it still looks rather speculative to me.

Fwiw my judgement says SOU chart says 63p. And next well result could just be unclear, wouldn't necessarily need to be bad to cause another big fall. It happens. Some engineering problem maybe. Just my opinion and as I say, Im often wrong.

[bountyhunter] 22/9/2016 17:30

...that would be well ahead of time if it happens; probably some time for commissioning/testing first though?

thanks for the fed info, somehow I missed that yesterday, too focused on the day job!

...lots going on on the SOU bb today, fortunately I was on leave today or I wouldn't have been able to keep up with it!

[whiskeyinthejar] 22/9/2016 16:34

I think main thing is fed didn't alter interest rates and she didn't say anything unexpected .

Market was looking for clues on future interest rate decisions, but we already know I think recent US economic stats have softened and a rate change in November is unlikely with the election.

So its risk on today. And weaker dollar means higher poo because most of worlds oil is priced in dollars so it makes oil cheaper for buyers.

I read speculation on lse board that Ithaca have finished the hook up and subsea work as heavy ships and diving vessels have left fpf1 area. They are guessing an rns is due. I don't know, think we need to be patient

[bountyhunter] 22/9/2016 15:35

don't know what he said but couldn't have done any harm - nice gap up today for Brent on the chart above

[whiskeyinthejar] 21/9/2016 19:26

Fed helping too I think. Yellen is speaking now.

[bountyhunter] 21/9/2016 19:20

that explains today's change in direction for Brent...

[whiskeyinthejar] 21/9/2016 15:35

EIA report huge fall in crude inventory. 6.2 million draw when analysts expected large gain. Suggests market is too pessimistic on oil imo.

[bountyhunter] 20/9/2016 11:42

updated the header mini charts while all quiet here

[bountyhunter] 15/9/2016 07:40

interesting to note the ENQ announcement today that Delek and Enquest failed to reach an agreement...

"On 18 July 2016 EnQuest announced that it was in discussions with Delek Group Ltd ('Delek') with regard to the potential sale to Delek of an interest in the Kraken development. EnQuest and Delek have ultimately been unable to reach an agreement and those discussions have now terminated."

[ngms27] 15/9/2016 04:28

Trump wont win anyway if you study US demographics

[whiskeyinthejar] 14/9/2016 19:42

Oil fallen back a bit. Build in refined products weighing. Short term noise imo.

I think there will be enough going on with the US presidential election in early November. My guess is market will rally on getting it over with. Not sure what market makes of Trump though.

[bountyhunter] 14/9/2016 19:14

good point about the Petrofac (no) bonus;
a few weeks here or there now for final startup I think is tolerable at this late stage, the direction of the price of oil will be more significant (for the proportion of production not hedged);
also there's the pipeline in the pipeline :)

[fsawatcher] 14/9/2016 18:35

the company ave said first oil in November so that can mean first well online on Nov 30th

the company also said that Stella will come online in phases

wot they prob means is that 16kbopd not likely to be pumpin into iae's coffers until early 2017

if the do first oil in mid dec they only 2 weeks off guidance coz they state 'nov' as month for first oil

but they also say 3 month from rig sailaway

so that make it first week in nov

wot ever happen - petrofacs gettin no bonus

[whiskeyinthejar] 14/9/2016 15:48

Oil has bounced on inventory data again.

Inventory was expected to build this week after the huge fall last week.

The thinking I believe was the imports that had been unable to land with the bad weather would now land this week. But looks like these imports were cancelled rather than delayed as there was actually another fall in inventory reported this afternoon.

[lfdkmp] 13/9/2016 20:49

Thank you bountyhunter for reminding us of the guidance from the company of anticipated hydrocarbons from Stella around November.


ngms27

You imply first hydrocarbons between mid December and mid March 2017. What guidance has prompted you to make such an assertion?

[bountyhunter] 13/9/2016 19:19

FPF-1 Sail-Away
5 August 2016

Ithaca Energy Inc. (TSX: IAE, LSE AIM: IAE) announces that the "FPF-1" floating production facility has completed the final marine system trials as planned and has commenced sail-away to the Stella field. The anticipated period from sail-away to Stella first hydrocarbons is approximately three months.

[the monkster] 13/9/2016 19:02

Aye. Exactly. At least