Ithaca Energy Share Discussion Threads

[frazboy] 14/11/2016 21:42

It's been a long time since IAE have shown their expected production profile for the next 2 years. It's long overdue

[cfccfc1970] 14/11/2016 18:45

I have to say, I was most impressed with this update.
Building on very solid foundations.
Market will catch up in due course.
Very pleased!!!

[fsawatcher] 14/11/2016 15:39

why malcy not say how much debt is expected to fall and by when?

he jus say "revenues are set to rise sharply thus bringing down debt at the same time"

at same time as wot Malcy?

even if they clear $27pb pure free cash flow from 25kbopd, it only gonna deliver $250m per year. Likely Capex of circa $70m. They gonna exit 2017 with 430m debt
and exit 2018 with 160m debt

but by year 3 stella virtually drained dry.

by time they paid off all debt, they ave no reserves left

ithaca jus like enquest and pmo - kept alive to jus pay down debt but nuffin much left for shareholders on books when it all done

[whiskeyinthejar] 14/11/2016 14:38

Malcys Blog

Results today from Ithaca and a conference call at noon, after which I will publish the blog. Ithaca is up there amongst the very best in the sector and has fully justified its place in the bucket list having risen 400% so far this year. Production is ahead of the 9/- guidance at 9,585 boe/d and opex is also better than expectations at $23 pb against thoughts of $25. The company continue to hedge, now out until the end of 2017 with 7,800 barrels hedged at an average floor of $52 and some exposure up to $60.

With Stella due onstream very soon, thus providing total production of 20-25/- b/d and with it a reduction of opex to below $20, revenues are set to rise sharply thus bringing down debt at the same time. Next year costs will fall again as IAE switches from tanker loading to the pipeline and with acquisitions being made in the Greater Stella hub and satellite portfolio. The management of Ithaca is concentrating on all the right things at the moment, the hedging enables it to concentrate on growing production and deleveraging the business and the costs are falling across the board.

[binarypilot] 14/11/2016 14:21

This company looks set to survive, and any surviving oil company will be gold dust in 18 months time....

[bountyhunter] 14/11/2016 14:11

oil is down today but IAE is still up, partly due to 2016 production exceeding expectations, Stella on track, the new pipeline ahead of schedule, debt down and cost of production also decreasing, but also down to their prudent hedging strategy

[fsawatcher] 14/11/2016 14:02

yep all perfect here .... not one person posts about stella first oil bein delayed

i bet they don't produce one drop of oil in Nov

you be lucky if they produce in dec

this over priced

back to 70's

[scrutable] 14/11/2016 09:21

Is this not,arguably, the best improving performance of any company in the UK?. Cost of production down by 23% since beginning of 2016 ie down $6.9/b on the previous $30/b and scheduled to fall still by a further 8% on hook up with new production from Stella, in a fortnight. On production figures of 9585 bopd that's a cost reduction of £53,000/day or £19m/pa straight to the bottom line.

Operating cash flow of £94m for the three quarters of 2016, annualised to £125m means that the shares can be bought for just x3.5 times op.cashflow, achieved of course by clever hedging, but achieved all the same.

And all this about to be dramatically improved in December by the doubling of production, slowly ramping up further in January.

The share price should be much much higher around the time of the FY results in March.

[whiskeyinthejar] 14/11/2016 08:16

Theyve actually rather prudently EXTENDED their 2017 hedging.

Previously hedges ended in mid 2017. They now have hedging in place until December 2017.

Your quote says:

"the Company has 7,800 boepd hedged at an average floor price of $52/boe for the 15 months to December 2017."

RNS explains :

"Hedging

During the recent pick-up in Brent prices the Company extended its commodity hedging position by a further 1.5 million barrels of 2017 oil production.Of this volume half has been hedged using collars with a floor price of $46/bbl and a celling price of $60/bbl and the other half has been hedged using put options with a floor price of $53/bbl.

Taking into account the additional volumes, the Company now has 7,800 boepd (71% oil) hedged at an average floor price of $52/boe for the 15 months to December 2017. Full commodity price upside exposure has been retained on 50% of the volumes hedged and upside exposure to $60/boe has been retained on a further 20%"

[kaytom] 14/11/2016 08:07

As a Holder I'm very happy with the results, Solid and everything on track for first oil on FPF-1 very soon.

Looks like the market likes it as well.

[fsawatcher] 14/11/2016 07:58

i read jus ok

how do you read this

Incorporating the new hedging with the Company's existing position at the end of the quarter, the Company has 7,800 boepd hedged at an average floor price of $52/boe for the 15 months to December 2017.

I tell ya how it reads

it says we realised all our hedges to mid 2017 in this quarter to make our rev numbers look better than they really are

we then did new hedges at $52pb when market allowed us jus a month ago

this company now ave no major hedges in place and now gonna react to oil price moves jus like premier oil or enquest

they not gonna see a penny from stella until Dec or even Jan

[whiskeyinthejar] 14/11/2016 07:50

FSA, your reading comprehension is even poorer than your writing skills.

Updates clearly explain that forward looking statements are not "promises", they are estimates.

Management never said first oil in 12 weeks. In August, they said about 3 months. So that was saying around November. Then in October update they stated November for first oil and today they still say around end of November.

[o1lman] 14/11/2016 07:39

Greater Stella Area Development

Significant progress has been made on the final stages of the Stella development programme since the FPF-1 floating production facility departed Poland in August 2016. The FPF-1 was safely towed to the field, moored on location and the dynamic risers and umbilical connecting the subsea infrastructure to the vessel installed. The subsea commissioning programme has recently been completed by Technip, with all the infield flowlines flushed and ready for the start-up of production. Connection and operational trials for the "Single Anchor Loading" system have also been completed for the fleet of shuttle tankers that are available for oil exports from the FPF-1.

The FPF-1 offshore commissioning programme is on-going, involving preparation of the topsides processing and utility systems for the introduction of hydrocarbons. This work is well advanced, with the operations team focused on completing the required inspections and associated readiness activities required to enable a safe and efficient start-up of the wells. It is anticipated that this work will be completed around the end of this month and enable start-up of Stella production.

As previously reported, significant progress has also been made during the Quarter on the work programme associated with switching from tanker loading to oil pipeline exports for the Greater Stella Area in 2017. Following installation of a connection point on the Norpipe system in summer 2016, a 44 kilometre spurline from the FPF-1 to the Norpipe system was successfully installed in September 2016. The key outstanding activities that now remain to be completed are the manufacture and installation of pipeline export pumps on the FPF-1 and the final subsea connections that need undertaking immediately prior to the switchover.

[fsawatcher] 14/11/2016 07:24

ha ha - i told ya they wouldn't do first oil in Nov

this update reads poorly

they don't tell ya headline number on oil hedge coz it droppin

last quarter they pay off 24m in debt , this quarter jus 8mil

they said first oil from sail away would be 12 weeks

it goin to be 16 weeks and more

this goin down today

[steve73] 14/11/2016 07:17

Q3 results out...

FPF first production confirmed before end Nov.
Production ytd more than 5% above guidance.
Debt reduced. & strong hedging position for 2017.

Looks good on a brief skim through..

[sludgesurfer] 09/11/2016 19:17

Fascinating insight there...

[fsawatcher] 09/11/2016 14:28

wot if they say stella first oil now expected in Dec?

they might not do first oil in nov as promised

that be another missed target

[steve73] 08/11/2016 11:00

Q3 results due out next week (14th). Be good to get an update on FPF as we must be approaching the estimated first oil window.

[bountyhunter] 08/11/2016 10:35

Hur is on my watch list, Sou is another interesting one.
Q3-2016 financial results due here for IAE on 14 November 2016 (end of header) so may get some share price action then especially if we get first oil from Stella at the same time! :-)

[laserdisc] 08/11/2016 10:01

Thanks bountyhunter all those links are vey good , I am a patient investor and still in Ithaca, I have a bigger holding though in Hur,that share has plenty happening on the boat scene with the new Lincoln drill expected to spud very soon

[bountyhunter] 08/11/2016 09:54

laserdisc - I've added the Kingfisher link towards the end of the header - it seems ok now although was filtered out a while ago further up the header where it still says Kingfisher in red but has lost the link.
Cheers, bh

[bountyhunter] 07/11/2016 12:24

Hi laserdisc, yes I did have that link in the header but became filtered out by ADVFN; I'll try again when I get a chance but may need to be an pre-approved advfn link to include in the header.