Ithaca Energy Share Discussion Threads

[che7win] 04/10/2016 07:22

I'm new here from a week ago :-)

[whiskeyinthejar] 03/10/2016 23:21

It's nice to see new avatars here. ;) New to me anyway.

Should see nice big inventory draw this week thanks to Hurricane Matthew disruping tanker traffic in Carribean?

[zebbo] 03/10/2016 22:10

Quiet right WITJ, Ithaca are looking to spend to boost reserves, not looking for a deadline to pay back debt. Lol

Most companies run with dept as it can be tax effective and Im not just talking oilers

[whiskeyinthejar] 03/10/2016 21:26

They don't have to pay off all the 606m debt by 2018. There's no covenants, they just get new loans. They'll renegotiate on moving from reserves based lending to one based on cash flow after Stella starts up.

Its much easier to borrow based on income. Rather than reserves which aren't generating income. They should get better terms in fact to reflect the lower risk.

[fsawatcher] 03/10/2016 20:41

i see debt reducin like this

2017 debt go from 606m to 456m year end
2018 debt go from 456m to 256m

ithaca got to pay off all 606m by sept 2018

so that not gonna happen

they gotta renegotiate on at least 30% of the current debt

i include about $100million for capex over 2 years

wot worse is they burn thru 18mil in reserves in just 2 years

[7kiwi] 03/10/2016 15:31

WITJ,

You need to modify your calculations to take account of the large proportion of Stella production that will be gas.

Current gas price is less than 32p/therm ( ), which works out a bit above $25/boe. (1 mcf ~= 10.32 therms, 6 mcf ~= 1 boe, $1.30/£)

Prod costs for Stella are around $10-12/boe (from the half year results), so the gas portion will generate $13-15/boe operating cashflow. Oil will be more lucrative at around $37-39/bbl at current prices. COsts for the other fields likely to remain stable at around $25/boe.

[binarypilot] 03/10/2016 11:11

I did say "should" ngm. ;-) hee hee.

[ngms27] 03/10/2016 10:12

If only it worked like that!

[binarypilot] 03/10/2016 10:11

and 300 mill of the debt should put 300 mill on the mkt cap, all other things being equal.

[whiskeyinthejar] 02/10/2016 14:38

Post-Stella the break even here is only about $25 per barrel (with no hedges). Everything above that $25 is free cash.

Fag packet says they should be able to reduce debt by several hundred million in 2017. You can all check my maths:

$45 Brent:
$20 x 25,000 bpd x 365= $182 million.

$50 Brent:
$25 x 25,000 bpd x 365= $228 million.

$55 Brent:
$30 x 25,000 bpd x 365= $274 million.


Ithaca say hub will start up with five wells to add 16k bpd. So plan is extra 16k bpd in a few weeks time. And these five wells tested at 53k bpd. That's considerably more than that required to meet management forecasts:


"The five well Stella development drilling programme was successfully completed in April 2015. The wells have all been successfully cleaned up and suspended in a manner that allows production to commence without the requirement for any further intervention activity once the FPF-1 is on location and hooked up. In total the wells have achieved a combined maximum flow test rate during clean-up operations of over 53,000 boepd (100%). This well capacity significantly de-risks the initial annualised production forecast for the GSA hub of approximately 30,000 boepd (100%), 16,000 boepd net to Ithaca."

I don't think we know the capacity of Fpf1. Must be higher than 30k bpd to allow for some downtime.

[georgie pie] 02/10/2016 13:01

Fsa watcher....if u want to de ramp by bringing in the year averages then go ahead but the fact remains that the current output is around 9kbpd...FPF1 has been brought it to take it to 25 and possibly more so just sit back and relax chap...the debt is coming down as you know and as oil rises back to 60 bucks by end of year they reduce it even quicker. Even at 68p its still a solid play.

[bountyhunter] 02/10/2016 11:12

gp - you may well be right on the timeline especially as this can be a stormy time of year, so it would have been wise to allow some slack

[fsawatcher] 02/10/2016 09:54

doublin or treblin production in few weeks?

wot planet are u on? plantet ramptastic?

they wont be doin 27kbopd anytime soon

you be lucky if they exit 2016 at 15k average

best number in 2017 will be 25kbopd but i not see that happen

I see 2017 ave 20kbopd as other producin assets tail off

they ave about 9k hedged thru to june 2017

they will ave 16kbopd not hedged

that a prob goin forward if poo stay low

they gotta pay down $600million of debt with wot ? $10pb profit per barrel ??/

lotta better value company out there.

ithaca woz good at 30p but it more than double now already

[georgie pie] 01/10/2016 19:14

bountyhunter....I know it seems a fair bit earlier than the "3 months till first hydrocarbons" statement the company put out.... but my guess is that the original timeline gave them plenty of slack in case of any minor problems so we may well be ahead of schedule and only a week or two away presuming all has gone well.

Exciting times are close I feel, doubling or possibly trebling of production in few weeks combined with rising Oil price is making IAE look like a solid bet for considerable near term upside imho.

Looking forward to Monday!

[flyingbull] 01/10/2016 17:13

The monthly oil stock challenge is still on! A test for your oil stock picking ability. Deadline for entries is this Sunday 2 October 2016.

[bountyhunter] 01/10/2016 14:23

well spotted again gf, should be there by now then, that's the second tanker visit in a few days so I wonder what's going on ...part of the final commissioning/testing perhaps, or producing already (but that would be around a month earlier than the most recent prediction)?

[guy_fawkes] 01/10/2016 08:43

Navion Oslo oil products tanker on its way to Stella O/F ETA 2016-10-01 06:00

[che7win] 29/9/2016 14:38

It sure is, plenty to go for.

[chester] 29/9/2016 13:10

Starting to get going here...

[bountyhunter] 29/9/2016 09:47

well spotted gf, ETA@FPF-1: 2016-09-30 06:00

[guy_fawkes] 29/9/2016 09:28

Orelia diving support vessel is on its way to the FPF-1.

[bountyhunter] 28/9/2016 19:49

...and IAE rising nicely in Toronto this evening

[whiskeyinthejar] 28/9/2016 19:38

Oil Spikes After OPEC Announces It Has "Reached A Deal To Limit Oil Production"; Execution To Take Place In November

[fsawatcher] 28/9/2016 16:17

iran gonna need another 3 month before they get up to 4m bopd

saudi and russia jus keep pumpin addin 800kbopd in last 8 week

that alright coz libya and nigeria down by 700kbopd

big trouble ahead thou coz libya and nigeria gonna be back in market in 2 month

market will be 1.5mbopd over supplied

that take PoO back down to $35pb

opec ave to to come out with deal plans today or PoO is goin down fast