Investika Di Share Discussion Threads

[7kiwi] 29/2/2008 08:45

I think IVK has also bought some TMC shares. So, showing some confidence.

[strow] 29/2/2008 08:41

Now we know why oz sold down-thanks 7kiwi-very leaky if you ask me,but holding on still-chris is determined to make a success of this and i think he will

[7kiwi] 28/2/2008 23:56

Belitung up for sale. Most of it written down.

[7kiwi] 28/2/2008 23:48

Annual Report out in Oz:

[nghomi] 26/2/2008 08:34

yes, but it is catching up with London prices. (£1.12 * 2.15 = A$2.40)

[b2l] 26/2/2008 08:06

up in AUS 14% today ...

[strow] 17/2/2008 12:33

Good points,both of you and thank you for your replies-it just continues to am aze me how ridiculously cheap these are now-almost as if something is fundamentally horribly wrong.I think the recent patchy drilling results on belitung have knocked confidence a fair bit,and perhaps some people are viewing the reviewing of their previous models as a failure of this project.It always did seem a little odd that four previous companies had achieved good grades of both zinc and lead and did not subsequently proceed to take the project fowards-perhaps the patchiness of the mineralisation was known about,but not overtly disclosed ?Clearly there is high grade mineralisation present-i suppose the ultimate question is,is it so diffuse as to be uneconomic?
The thing that leads me to believe that this wont be the case is the fact that ck and the directors decided to purchase the remaining 51% of belitung that ivk did not already own,AFTER the first set of patchy drill results were known-why waste $5 million if it was likely to be going nowhere-it seems that they feel that the chances are that it is-well those are just my thoughts anyway-it never does any harm to reassess the geological model-it perhaps is a bit more complex than they first thought
Whatever the case,once they get the environmental permit on the copper project(hopefully soon),this will be woefully undervalued,and a very exciting prospect,no matter what happens with all of ivks other assets

[nghomi] 16/2/2008 19:32

strow, I do not know the financial muscles of CK but I would be surprised that he can afford buying IVK and also afford providing IVK's future funding requirements. Buying out IVK at a discount would only mean screwing the existing shareholders in my mind. By doing so, he has no other alternative but financing the LP after BFS and also Berong for VA and also zinc project etc. by his own money. NOBODY will offer him any sort of funding at any point in future if he screws them up by buying IVK at these prices. So I agree with david that CK's confidence in IVK can only be a good thing, imo.

One more point is that what would be CK's percentage of IVK in 10 years time? We would require a number of fund raising from now to then. I could see IVK's market cap of >£1B in 10 years time if all of these projects are successful. The chances are that even CK's holding would be diluted to less than 5% by then.

[david77] 16/2/2008 09:53

I filled my ISA with IVK recently. Directors' buying is usually seen as confidence from an insider, so I don't see CK's interests as a risk.

I agree that the recent fundraising was at a high price, but presumably agreed some time ago. African Copper ACU has recently raised cash @ 70p/share while the market price was 55p.

I guess that the institutions buying the new shares had been persuaded about the value of their investments.

[strow] 16/2/2008 09:44

Do people see it as a real risk,the fact that ck has such a large holding here??
I cant see that he could buy it out without the permission of the other holders,and perhaps he could not afford to anyway-im just aware that say with celtic resources for instance,that the russian company severstal that made a hostile bid had to build up their holding,i think it was to more than 29%,before they could make a bid
Im just not sure of cks intentions here and whether he intends to keep ivk in the public domain or not
Also,still cant understand why the latest tranche of fundraising for the remaining 100,000 was done at that silly high price,when they could have gone to market over say a week or so and bought in smaller tranches so as not to move the price too much,and it would have cost them almost half as much-it just doesnt make sense,unless they had to complete at the same price as was previously agreed on the rest?? views welcome please

[stemis] 13/2/2008 09:01

It is indeed a conundrum. I make the cash raised from the share placing and convertible to be worth about 43p a share (taking account of note conversion at 80% of current share price).

The value of quoted investments (TMC/TQN/UEP) adds another 36p.

That leaves 28p or £6.8m.

So that's 18.7% of Berong, 49% of Puquios (Las Pascualas) and 100% of Belitung Zinc.

On conversion of the note 38.1% of the shares will be held by parties in which CK has an interest.

[jtcod] 13/2/2008 08:23

Nobody can say that one was pre-arranged at the price. If ever a deal told the value story this one does imo.

[7kiwi] 13/2/2008 08:22

And they closed in Oz at about A$2.1. Go figure.

[david77] 13/2/2008 08:12

"13 February 2008

Further to the earlier announcements regarding the placement of 3,000,000 fully
paid ordinary shares at a price of A$4.30 per share, the Company has today
completed the issue and allotment of the outstanding balance of 100,000 shares"

A$4.3 = 198p

[nghomi] 03/2/2008 15:27

strow, the seller(s) must be desparate to sell at these prices. Has he finished selling though? As you mentioned it could be RAB or who knows any other financial company which is in trouble. Apparantly, 20000 city jobs are at risk according to the Sunday Telegraph. (Not sure it meant world wide or just in the UK). I'd rather start buying after he has offloaded all of his shares.

[strow] 03/2/2008 08:20

Reading between the lines,its quite possible those two 21k sells were delayed reported,but not more than the 3 days that they would have to label them as late "L",hence some of the quite severe drops over the last 3 days-quite frightening how illiquid this share is sometimes,but at some point it should also benefit from this to the upside-might be a little wait though-still a completely disproportionate markdown
Cant get my head round the new name for lp-enterprise value then £8m now,for all four projects!I do wish i had more cash

[strow] 01/2/2008 15:39

Yep-i agree-thereabouts-how many cos out there have more than half their m/c in cash at the moment-not many i think

[nghomi] 01/2/2008 15:21

strow,
Placing of 2.9m shares at $4.30 = $12.47m
convetatable bonds by CK = $9m

A$21.47m ~= £10m

[strow] 01/2/2008 15:13

As a matter of interest ng,where does your £10m cash come from ??

[strow] 01/2/2008 14:25

We can debate the exact levels of this-in my opinion we are there now re copper project-you are slightly lower-somewhere between here and your 90p lies ridiculousness,also given that we are not including the primary ore zone,which could/would as stated in the pfs double the life of the project and the npv

[nghomi] 01/2/2008 13:17

I would change my mind and buy some more IVK if it hits 90p on offer! At 90p, all projects but copper is valued at zero. We have £10m cash plus approximatley £8m value of LP project (considering TNQ market cap of £4.4m). Any upside on berong/tmc etc would be just a bonus!

[strow] 01/2/2008 11:00

Oh and just another point as it drops further,is that the 9 million tonnes is only the current jorc compliant resource from portions of the already awarded mpsa area at berong,so there is more ore in this mpsa area than this 9 million tonnes
If one was a cynic,one would almost think that as with tmc,the aim is to completely flush out all pis and just you watch at the bottom there will be big institutional buying which will take the price right back up to where it was-i keep wanting to buy more,but they keep taking it lower-problems problems :-)

[strow] 01/2/2008 10:20

Well all i can say is that despite the price slaughtering that has gone on here recently,im very glad that im only now in ivk and not tmc(the risks just seem to be getting greater there all the time)
I was hoping we might begin to get some movement between the two to ivks benefit of people looking for a safer(more diversified) haven with some of tmcs upside exposure retained-it doesnt seem to be happening yet,but think it will when the copper project develops further and if belitung doesnt turn out to have been a bad call-either way,this one is cks baby and i feel safer having my money here at present-my feeling is that tmc/berong and belitung have now been given a zero value in terms of ivks market capital,which perhaps is a safe way to look at it,but how can four different independent companies drilling belitung come up with similar results unless there was something there of real interest??

[kimboy2] 01/2/2008 09:51

Seems to be the logical result of this;