Investika Di Share Discussion Threads

[7kiwi] 01/2/2008 09:42

Difficult to judge at this distance whether it is very serious or local posturing to improve the welfare systems TMC/MacroAsia would intend to put in place.

Many of these people live on subsistence farming, and the mine coudl bring additional jobs to improve their lot. Berong has been put forward as a model of community improvement.

[konil] 01/2/2008 09:32

fyi, as posted on tmc thread


unionhall - 1 Feb'08 - 09:14 - 36380 of 36380


Those pesky locals......

[kimboy2] 01/2/2008 09:11

The figures I have, which I think were from a presentation in October are;

2007 2008 2009 2010
Berong 1 0.62 1.5 1.5 1.5
Berong 2 0.5 1.5 1.5
Moorsom 1 0.5 1.5
Moorsom 2 0.5 1.5
Long Pt 1 0.5 1.5
Long Pt 2 0.5 1.5
Ipilan 1 0.5 1.5
Ipilan 2 1.5

Total 0.62 2.0 5.50 12.0

LME price 33k 32k 32k 18k
Moisture 32% 32% 32% 32%
Ni Grade 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%
%LME 15% 15% 15% 15%

Rev $/wmt 50.49 48.96 48.96 27.54
Costs $/wmt 20 17 15 12

This would give a profit on these figures of;

Berong TMC 56.1% IVK 18.7%
2007 - $18,9 $10.6m $3.5m
2008 - $63.92 $35.85m $11.95m
2009 - $186.78 $104.7m $34.92m
2010 - $186.48 $104.6m $34.87m

The figures look highly unlikely now because of production problems, permit delays and a lower nickel price.

[jtcod] 01/2/2008 08:38

Yep.

I also contacted atlas/TMC management and they said no restrictions on increasing volume, only logistics issues (like the road permit etc). Which of course is the current sticking point.

IMO the story has not changed in Berong. Merely delayed because of bad weather and permit delays for the road. You have to remember that the government were rather preocupied in H1 with electioneering and greasing palms. Things will settle now they have another term.

As ever all imho and DYOR of course.

[strow] 01/2/2008 08:05

So with 9 million tonnes of ore from current granted mpsa area,this should cover ivks current market capital,even if nothing else in terms of permits was granted?

[jtcod] 31/1/2008 12:19

I think 3m wmt's in 2010 is possible from Berong. At $26k/tonne ni (if the price is still there in 2 years,) should deliver approx. £7m net profit pa after tax to IVK.


FOB deal:
1 wmt x 1.5% x 70% (net of moisture content) x $26,000 x 15% payment at 10x ni grade x 3m wmt's x 25% IVK cut of project x 50% after tax x ($2 = £1) = £7.68m less some central costs leaves say approx. £7m pa in cash.

[strow] 31/1/2008 11:37

7kiwi-yes there was,but this was all assuming permits were granted etc-without them it is not achieveable (and as we all know there is also some doubt about celestial,which was as jt says incorporated into this plan) and they will have to stick with the 280hectare mpsa area that they have already secured-everything depends on permits-with them the plan could have been executed,without them there is no chance

[7kiwi] 31/1/2008 10:34

Tony, JT. I think ng is right. There is a presentation dated 18/7/7 which suggests that they will get to 9m tonnes p.a. by the end of 2009, inclusing Berong, Moorson and Long Point. DSO only.

Perosnally I think that is very optimistic, but they have said it.

Can't find the document on the website; but I could send it to anyone who posts up their address.

[grimbo] 31/1/2008 09:22

As a former holder who was stopped out some time ago - I have to say these are getting to outrageous bargain territory now. It is true that institutions are not so keen on holdings where one person virtually has control of the company but.....well I'm looking for the right entry point.

[jtcod] 31/1/2008 09:07

Yes Tony it was.

[strow] 31/1/2008 08:15

Just looking at the trades on the asx -over the last 5 or so trading days,ivk has lost 31.56% of its value,akin to almost £5m with share sales outweighing buys by a value of approx £32,000-what does that tell you???
It tells me that people generally are still very confident about ivks future and that the value is still very much there only based on the copper project-what amazes me,is if it carried on at that rate,then we would only need another £64,000 worth of share sales from here for ivk to have a value of zero-reverse gearing at its best-the shorters if there are any will have done very well-also prooves my point ng about how much of a bargain it is now,although i can completely understand your approach at the moment-probably a very sensible one

[tonystringy] 30/1/2008 19:01

ng and JT,

Also, if my memory serves, wasn't it a spokesman from Atlas who made that statement in an interview? I don't recall reading it in any RNS's.

[jtcod] 30/1/2008 13:17

ng
I think that was 2011 and included 2 other sites.

I sold TMC and retained IVK for the same reasons.

[nghomi] 30/1/2008 13:15

I am actually sitting on more cash than shares at the moment. Bargian or not, I will not be adding any more until I get a clearer idea where Puquios is heading to. To me TMC/Berong is more a potlitical risk than viability of the project or Ni prices. Unlike Puquios, it seems that Berong progress has been delayed because of political pressure. I thought the company was talking about 9 to 12 m tones of DSO by 2009. Surely, even the most optimistic person on this planet would not beleive these figures.

No matter how much I am disillusioned, I am not selling either because I trust CK's ability in recognising an outstanding long term oppurtunity here. I also believe that China has not even started to consume base metals. Just imagine if they have one car for every 2 Chinese citizens?

[jtcod] 30/1/2008 13:06

ng
700,000 wmt's still delivers almost £2m cash profit to IVK net of 50% tax. That's based upon $26k/tonne ni and 1.5% ni content. I think people forget the economics of that project. The original figures were almost embarrassing when ni hit $50k.

Don't forget also that the management intend to ramp up production significantly above 1.5m wmt pa over the next 3 years. Infrastructure approval is the only thing holding those plans back. As strow says, this is just a game of patience.

[strow] 30/1/2008 12:55

No idea ng,but my shares are like my own endowment if you like-you seem very disillusioned again-suprised in a way you are still holding as you seem to be constantly expressing the doubts at the moment-us recession or not ivks value will be known with time-it is purely a market timing thing for me re further purchases-granted there are a lot of questions still to be answered here at the moment,but i feel you are expressing what the market is expressing at the moment-very low sentiment and fear-those with the longer term outlook are the best times to buy
Re 20 years-what i am trying to say and i think you know is that this is not a short term investment-i get the feeling that you like me do not have any more cash to take advantage of these lower prices?

[nghomi] 30/1/2008 12:32

"purely based on las pasculas which should easily treble ones money from this point-i just think peoples timescales are unrealistic-mine is 20 years"

Surely, your money would easily treble in 20 years time if you put it in a building society! Doesn't look like very optimistic statement :-(

It is true that AIM sales are pitiful but there is absolutely no buyers even at a pitiful quantity. As you say this is certainly a long term investment and one has to forget about his money for at least 2 years but more realistically five years! Who would take such a position when we might be heading to a minimum US recession?

[strow] 30/1/2008 10:02

Not great,although not a disaster-shipments are still happening and i think realism needs to kick in again re tmc-it is high risk(thats why im not holding tmc directly),although the highest risk is still the permitting-having said that,if they dump the worlds 4th largest laterite resource,they might as well wave goodbye to mining investment in the phillipines,so there is a balance somewhere to be had
This is as far as i can see a very good price if you are a new buyer of ivk,purely based on las pasculas which should easily treble ones money from this point-i just think peoples timescales are unrealistic-mine is 20 years
Another point is the aim sales of ivk have been pitiful and it has on this basis been marked down very hard,so not too worried longer term-i will be buying more when i have some cash

[nghomi] 30/1/2008 09:45

strow, I cannot see a good year for TMC as Dangla Road is getting delayed. We could export 700k tones of ore at most. With this year's Ni's prices, I fear that TMC share prices would go a lot lower than current price. What is your view on TMC report?

[strow] 30/1/2008 08:45

No value in this for anything other than tmc at the moment-that will change with time-i think anyone left with spread bets must be hurting like hell here
Looks like they are still looking for "opportunities" though,so clearly this is a long term ambition of cks-im sure he will make it a success-he has to-he must have most of his money riding on it
Still dont think they would have purchased more of belitung if they thought it was going nowhere

[nghomi] 30/1/2008 07:39

We wonder why CK is putting more money of his own in Chile!

"Exploration continued in the vicinity, and at Las Nipas a significant
copper-molybdenum-gold geochemical anomaly was located, detailed geological
mapping was completed and drill sites prepared for a drilling programme to
commence in March."

[nghomi] 29/1/2008 20:25

Another all-time high for CRC today! It is ironic that it seems that we are heading to an all-time low (at least on AIM market) for IVK soon.

[nghomi] 28/1/2008 20:32

Tiggy2101,
We would probably get a quarterly update this week. It is probably a ASX requirement as IVK publishes the financial reports and operating updates on a three-month basis.

Kimboy2 -
The point I am tying to make is that if you look at Ni players on AIM with similar market cap, you probably cannot find any stock which is as consistent as CRC which is only focused on copper. I am happy to be corrected but it seems that Ni players have had a boom-bust cycle ( in terms of share prices - mostly head and shoulder TA!) in the last 12 months. However, CRC keeps hitting all-time high.

[kimboy2] 27/1/2008 23:21

CRC is based in the DRC and have had a bid and lots of peculiar things have been going on.