Interactive Prospect Targeting Share Discussion Threads

[bluebelle] 29/3/2007 17:34

tOp

Quite agree. The likes of you, markie et al, but unlike ok, have no axe to grind : we have just given our honest opinions - with reasons - which just happen to have been quite close to the mark. That, to my mind, is what bulletin boards are for, and interesting when they are fostering genuine differences of opinion, rather than abusing anyone who disagrees with you which seems to be ok's position unfortunately.

[t0pgrader] 29/3/2007 17:29

BTW - I'm not shorter / deramper. I bt around 120 and sold around 210 and then watched the business and the share price decline.

Last winter Bluebelle called this right along with Markie and myself. You, Chiva, brenny and others are just dreamers but that's fine because it goes to make a market!!!

[ok,yah] 29/3/2007 16:35

Yes on that we are agreed. I have tried to give you the benefit of the doubt and be reasonable at the end of the day your posts speak for themselves - you do come across as rather stupid i'm afraid

[tipsheet] 29/3/2007 16:16

DJ Interactive Prospect Up To Buy From Hold At Canaccord >IPH.LN



(END) Dow Jones Newswires

March 29, 2007 11:05 ET (15:05 GMT)

[ok,yah] 29/3/2007 16:12

Whatevr bluebelle

You are naive if you believe bulletin boards dont influence some stocks..I have SEEN bulletin boards influence share price on volatile low volume stocks where retail punters are prime movers. Rumours can start on bulletin boards, insider information can be posted and all sorts of shennanigans go on. .

. I can see the risks of investing here hence I have never owned the shares and the points raised on the balance sheet are interesting but inconclusive. Can I ask you a straight question, do you believe or suspect there are accounting irregularities here?

i believe I have a good understanding of the way the market reacts after profit warnings after concentrating on this for a few years..the fear and greed equation is at its purest and there can be a great deal of money to be made on buying good stocks at these times because valuations become out of sync..

[brennymcl] 29/3/2007 16:12

I run a successful Internet business in the UK it is small but we spend over 250k a year on advertising on line. I have used IPH and they have performed and delivered well against all our metrics so I invested. The only other company that has been able to do that was Google and they are more than twice the cost per action. This means there is something of substance at IPT. I work on very tight margins and I am a repeat customer which is a big testament to the quality of the sales force who are consultative and smart but also to the quality of the underlying product.

They already have leading email technology and databases this will only continue to improve and so there are two good reasons why I have invested more money yesterday and today and held my existing investments.

1. The better they get at targeting their emails the more they will make because I will pay them more for a very well targeted lead than a less targeted one.
2. The more successful on line companies in the UK start to look for ROI outside paying Google the more new clients they will get.

It's worth noting that IPT gave us larger reach than MSN and Yahoo! combined in the UK and at a much more competitive price. This combined with the huge data asset they have of not just email lists but their recent behavior is whilst intangible hugely valuable.

To add to this I have direct experience of building email databases and so I know they are very good at it. That along with their technology to exploit them are both core assets and ones which should help them improve the French business as they continue with what already sounds like a successful acquisition and integration.

I obviously have invested so my judgment might be slightly coloured but I have seen less dramatic falls on gambling stocks that announce they no longer have access to the US market. Didn't IPH just report healthy growth if a little short of the estimates? This stock is well oversold and 100 is a good support in my view I expect to see a bounce in the other direction soon.

I think the key is to keep building on the technology so that they can better target customers and if they do that I think this could be the scalp of an inverse head and shoulders and we may see 200 very soon. Calls for more management are also wrong you need an entrepreneur and visionary for growth like they have and this is a growth stock they can put in more management when it stops growing but I think that is a few years off yet.

[masurenguy] 29/3/2007 15:39

Finally breached 100p with the last sell at 99.66p !

[bluebelle] 29/3/2007 15:38

Ok

When all else fails denigrate the posters who disagree with you eh ?

I suggest you back check this thread to December. I think you'll see some insight then, and not just from me, but from others who, unlike you, appear to understand problems inherent in valuing stocks like these in this sort of sector. Our caution has been amply justified.

Agenda ? Manipulative ? Do me a favour child. I post what I think. Simple as that. And if you think that I, or anyone, can move a share price - even if I wanted to - by posting on a bulletin board, you're even more naive than I thought. And that, and you clearly are.

[ok,yah] 29/3/2007 15:27

hmm - I can see the agenda here - touchingly naive? your posts, bluebelle are without substance and manipulative and, as I see, you cannot add anything meaningful to the debate - Its easy to scaremonger on a profit warning and equally easy to ramp a share after a long period of growth. What is your agenda here bluebelle?

Where were your, ahem, insightful posts when they were needed.. all you are doing is following the herd as you admit... I have no position and at present no agenda apart from trying to assess the risk reward ratio to decide whether its worth making an investment..

topgrader --- who says i believe anything... what do you mean 'my problem is'.. I am a successful investor.. I would appreciate some posts on the industry and players thanks although I can see that you arent looking for a balanced argument

[t0pgrader] 29/3/2007 15:11

ok,yah

Fact - the UK sector is maturing quite fast. Margins in the core business are in decline, new competitors are emerging and the mid -sized companies are consolidating.

Your problem is that you want to beliecve a story that isn't real. Secondly, you don't know the industry or the players. Get informed and then contribute

[bluebelle] 29/3/2007 15:10

ok

No problem. If you can't see it there's no point in repeating myself. Your posts really are touchingly naive. In disagreeing with them I am siding with Mr Market and he is currently telling me that today he will deal at roughly half the price for this stock that he would be prepared to deal at this time last week. He may be right. He may be wrong. But he is the guy you have to deal with if you want to buy OR sell and it is his valuation that counts. Not mine. Not yours.

[masurenguy] 29/3/2007 14:47

"If you can keep your head when all around are losing theirs....you probably haven't appreciated the full extent of the problem !"

LOL - I really like that one and very apt in this particular context too !

[bluebelle] 29/3/2007 14:07

ok
Headline operating margins mean very little with this type of company, certainly to investors like me : what is important is net profit and, even more important, net cash.

The jury is NOT out on cash generation as far as I'm concerned : there were some very good posts about this here (not by me I hasten to add) in, I think, December / January. I think the jury has delivered its verdict over the last few days.

You're right about investment in web sites, but that's just the problem some of us have been warning about for quite some time now. You can buy growth, either by acquisition or by investment, capitalise your investment and show the (notional) value of the acquisition as an asset, but unless those investments/assets are cash generating, you run the risk of basking in the warm cosy glow of an artificially inflated asset valuation, producing an asset price bubble (i.e. an over valued share price) which bursts on any negative news.

Like some other posters, I was also a bit surprised by, if my reading is correct, the rather complacent tone of the Chairman's comments. What's that quote ? If you can keep your head when all around are losing theirs....you probably haven't appreciated the full extent of the problem !

Time will tell but I think the only thing which will produce a material upward movement in share price post-bubble, if that's what it is, is cash inflow to underpin it. Markets (i.e. investors) don't like surprises, especially nasty ones, and the fact that the latest news was completely unexpected following the January (I think) trading statement makes me wonder about the positions of the Chairman and CEO. Do they now still have the credibility with investors so that the latter group will believe future trading statements and forecasts, or is there a need (if they can find one) to draft in a heavyweight figure to try and restore 'City credibility' ?

Each to his own, so by all means have your small punt, but this is not for me at the moment.

[ok,yah] 29/3/2007 13:36

topgrader

Headline operating margins increased to 20% in 2006 from 15% in 2005 - The jury is out on cash generation - They are investing in new websites and expanding into Europe which can credibly be argued to be taking up cash.

You are simply speculating on where and how future money can be raised for acquisitions, there may be no dilution - They may be able to raise money at a decent price if the share price recovers, they may be generating lots of cash.

As for an investment strategy - There are a lot of questions poised by the profit warning but the valuation looks quite generous a small punt at around a quid looks good to me - wouldnt put more in at this stage

[t0pgrader] 29/3/2007 13:07

ok, yah

You quite possibly have a case. The question you haven't addressed is by how much they can grow when their margins are under pressure, they aren't generating cash and their acquisition strategy will depend primarily upon share issues (at what discount?)for the foreseeable future.

So what's your investment startegy for IPH?

[ok,yah] 29/3/2007 12:24

The other side of the coin is that looking at year on year results this has got a fantastic record of growth. It is one of the prime movers in the rapidly growing sector of internet marketing and next years results are forecast to grow further. Of course an internet company will not have much in the way of tangible assets but that does not mean it will be any the less successful.. From the way people were talking you would have thought this was a basket case - Are some trying to force the price down for their own ends?

[t0pgrader] 29/3/2007 10:32

Bluebelle

Your argument is very succinctly put and a sound warning.

[bluebelle] 29/3/2007 09:44

tOp

I agree. re your last point, the difficulty I always find in assessing companies like this is finding out from the Rep & Accs exactly what the trading position really is. Because they can 'capitalise' almost everything, as long as they keep on the acquisition trail - preferably for them, paper based - everything in the garden looks lovely, but once top line growth slows (and a collapse in the value of their paper often has just that effect : I remember Sam Brittain's article on why share prices matter and that is one of the main reasons in this context!)things can unravel quite quickly.

The only thing that really matters long term is the extent to which cash flow is going to be positive or negative and how that translates into the usual valuation criteria - P/E etc. - going forward. Everything else is speculative froth based on 'market position' etc. I try and find growth companies in growth sectors which is how I began following this one in the first place, but as I posted some months ago, it met virtually none of my 'safety' criteria which, I've learned through bitter experience and Benjamin Graham, are a lot more important !

I agree with you about future financing, assuming it's necessary, which one must presume it will be if they keep on following their current strategy. This is not a bank proposition at all which leaves options such as a highly dilutive rights issue at a hefty discount even to the current market price (which could well fall further in anticipation of that) rather than a premium, or an institutional placing aimed primarily at current investors. Either way, 205 looks some way off.

They could, of course, try and sell certain of the operating companies, but that brings its own problems. In any event I can't help but feel that the outlook for PIs is a bit bleak for the foreseeable future, and certain tipsters have, on the basis of recent recommendations, a certain amount of egg on face !

[damo1979] 28/3/2007 18:52

This looks to be heading way south, I expect more bad news to follow on this co! I think 50p will be on the cards shortly.

[t0pgrader] 28/3/2007 18:14

Bluebelle

Glad to hear you followed your instincts. There will be a time to buy this back looking for the bid but I don't expect to touch it until there's a clear sign that it's saleable at a decent premium.

Furthermore, having raised equity in 06 at 205p that sets an exit threshold which any company (and especially their advisers) would want to cover.

The really interesting question is how an acquisition-driven business that is seemingly working capital negative-neutral can raise sufficient finance to fund its growth without resorting to shareholders who won't help and banks who will struggle to lend aginst a balance sheet that mainly compises goodwill.