Interactive Prospect Targeting Share Discussion Threads

[ok,yah] 27/3/2007 13:36

Sentiment wont improve overnight. It never does in a nasty surprise scenario like this as the shock value of the warning leads to mistrust. I can see further falls over the coming weeks as this stock had a premium rating for its growth and with that called into question there will be no hurry to buy. With the first 6 months income to actually decrease there is no rush.. Look at SMC and THN for recent examples of surprise profit warmings on highly rated small caps both are at close to half their price prior to the warning

[baheid101] 27/3/2007 13:33

Hi coolchilli

On debtors and creditors - I think that these will both rise in line with the business. I would think that this reflects the costs of acquiring data on one side - e.g referral payments to the partners that provide the 200k per month to myoffers.co.uk and the monetisation of that data on the other i.e. emailing on behalf of marketing clients.

What is of much more relevence I would argue is cashflow, which grew strongly.

Outlook and current trading extremely disappointing. Weak demand in mail marketing I can accept as this area is in terminal decline but 'sales execution' problems within the data business could do with some better explanation. A horribly opaque expression that does not help the market work out what went wrong.

BH

[masurenguy] 27/3/2007 13:29

This is really getting hammered now with sells going through at 132p.
Glad that this was only on my watchlist and that I had not previously invested.
Could be a buying opportunity when this bottoms out since it looks to me as though the sell off has been overdone !

[coolchilli] 27/3/2007 11:14

Robsy,

my concern is that goodwill aside- net assets have not increased in 12 months. i'm not saying that im an asset backer, but i do like there to be some substance in the companies i buy.

debtors and creditors- its not that they have increased, its that there is a massive swing. look at the debtor figure for 2005 and for 2006. the only explanation for this i can offer is that the businesses they bought had very different accountancy practices which they were not able to reconcile by year end.

you are correct about the cash-flow. ive noticed that the £11m raised by new shares issued is cancelled out by £11m for acquisitions. i dont remember iph paying £11m total cash consideration for smartquotes and directinet- maybe someone else can throw some light on this.

i dont think you can compare todays iph with that of may last year. those that paid 2.05 in may will be feeling pretty sick today unless of course they were able to sell at the 2.40 high. i dont think 1.50 is cheap if you look at fundamentals, and also factor in the fact that this is no longer a company riding high on confidence and bragging about its prospects for the future.

i've also heard today that they are moving offices in victoria later this year which is going to be a very expensive undertaking now they have 200+ staff, and which will plague productivity- unless of course they are masters of operational efficiency- which, from todays news and that leaking out over the lsat months, we know they are not.

imo, wait and see where the share price is when TMN announce results and then take a view of whether IPT is overvalued. i expect iph still has some way to fall this week.

[robsy2] 27/3/2007 10:50

coolchili
I don't disagree with the markets reaction to the results and it could still look a bit expensive even after the fall but to my eyes the accounts look reasonable.
* The goodwill issue, surely the types of businesses that they acquire will have lots of goodwill and few assets,that's normal.
*debtors and creditors have increased, but that will happen in a business that is twice as big as it was a year ago.
total creditors at 8.5m is not much more than the cash at 7.5m, thye also have 8.5m of debtors . Again I dont see these figures as being out of line.
* The cash flow is strong. net cash increased 2m over the year.
I don't see how cash has decresed by 3.5m?
I'm on the sidelines looking but it seems to me that if the institutions were happy to buy in at 2.05 last May then it could be cheap at 1.50 if you agree with the CEO who thanks the company will grow 40% this year.

[shanksaj] 27/3/2007 10:39

If your wrong, admit it quickly... I'm out as well. Double ouch.. once for the original, and again for the small add this am.

[jakleeds] 27/3/2007 10:13

Very well thanks Diogenes, expensive time to go skiing, but I suppose if you have kids there's not a lot you can do except pay up or take them out during term time.

Anyway, hope you get your stuff sorted, it's good to 'see' you again.

[pugugly] 27/3/2007 10:13

coolchilli:> Excellent analysis - You have put flesh on the bones of my worry. Given the rate of expansion via purchase and the swing in debtors/creditors that you have identified what do you think are the chances of an increase in bad debts which may have to be written off?

I have seen the problems of too rapid expansion in the communications/advertising/promotions industry too many times not to be worried.

[diogenesj] 27/3/2007 09:58

Well summed up, coolchilli. Wish I had your phone number. It would save me reading all these damned accounts myself. :-)

[diogenesj] 27/3/2007 09:55

Hi Jak. Might just as well have been - I've been swamped with legal problems to do with the protection of a vulnerable member of my extended family. Seems to have taken over my life for the moment. Off for a week's ski-ing from Friday, so I'm hoping to get a break from the lawyers and the markets. Hope you are doing well. :-)

[t0pgrader] 27/3/2007 09:52

months ago a few of us said this would happen but the dreamers kept hoping

[jakleeds] 27/3/2007 09:47

That explains the underperformance over the last few mionths I guess.

Morning Diogenes, you been away?

[diogenesj] 27/3/2007 09:45

Lousy results, well below forecasts, and extremely poor outlook statement. Management have promised much more than they could deliver. I'm out. Ouch.

[pugugly] 27/3/2007 09:10

Still looks pricy to me on historic earnings on basic eps of 8.4p - At 160p offer I make this a p/e of 19.1, far too high (imo) if company growth has substantially slowed.

any other views? As was interested as CL and I have crossed paths many times during our lives, but I suspect I have come too late to the party.

[zapa] 27/3/2007 08:56

Cross trade etarip.

[etarip] 27/3/2007 08:55

It was the 250,000 share sale at 145 that was moving the price down

[pugugly] 27/3/2007 08:54

A 2nd reason for fall could be that the results are significantly under brokers estimates. Investec were forecasting pre tax for 06 of £5.21M against £4.4M achieved. Couple this with the margin problems and slow down identified it looks as though growth rates are and could be in the future well under forecast. Next years consensus estimate of £7.47M will need revising- The question is by how much will it be downgraded.

[zapa] 27/3/2007 08:46

Well spotted Masurenguy.Wait for the bounce.

[etarip] 27/3/2007 08:42

I agree the reason for this is the Current Trading statement. Never-the-less the long term prospects look good to me.

[shanksaj] 27/3/2007 08:41

Basically good results, I've added a bit.

[masurenguy] 27/3/2007 08:40

Hmmm.......this must be the reason !

"However net income for the first half of 2007 is likely to be below that achieved in 2006. Margins in the first half have been adversely affected in two areas. Firstly a weak market in the UK postal area has adversely impacted sales in our postal business and secondly sales execution within the data business. However demand for our data remains strong and the Board remains confident for the rest of the year".

MMs have marked this down since share volume so far is comparatively low with the sell/buy ratio at 60/40.

[zapa] 27/3/2007 08:32

No reason for this Masurenguy.I'm in.