Interactive Prospect Targeting Share Discussion Threads

[bluebelle] 02/4/2007 09:01

t0pgrader - 31 Mar'07 - 16:20 - 315 of 323
If Ok has reported me / you then that's absolutely fine


tOp
He didn't do that : he posted unfounded and untrue allegations here to the effect that you and I were the same poster using different names, and that we had a 'shorting ' agenda, the usual rubbish that people post when a share price is falling and someone has called it right. It always amazes me that instead of people sending their allegations of multi-alias postings to advfn, who can check on that very quickly, they make accusations on the boards themselves, which it is very difficult for, in this case, you and I to disprove. Anyway, advfn removed it pretty much straight away so no harm done.

[t0pgrader] 01/4/2007 22:09

Look guys IMO this share price disaster was predictable without knowing anything about the quality of the management (which is of course critical). If you had done nothing else but read the 07 trading statement you would have noticed the difference in tone compared to the previous year and secondly it made no positive mention about the UK. Hang on - a trading statement that says NOTHING positive about the core market! What more information do you need FGS? Chiva, benny and the other dreamers simply chose to ignore the evidence and invest on the basis of hope. DYOR.

[pugugly] 01/4/2007 21:52

melody9999:> You are so right. The difficulty i find is to evaluate management. There is only so much one can do on the phone or at agm's/briefings. Have you any tips on what you have found are the most reliable indicators of quality mangement?

[melody9999] 01/4/2007 21:13

One of the consistent themes I find is that as well as finding a company with good products in a growing market, the quality of the management is vital. IPH might tick the boxes on the first 2 counts, but there are questions marks over the third . For that reason, as a Dragon might say ..... I will not be investing.

The good news is that as PIs we have so many companies to choose from - another reason that you do not need to take a risk here. All IMHO

[brennymcl] 01/4/2007 14:25

Thanks for the advice coolchilli would be intereted in any book recomendations.

[coolchilli] 01/4/2007 14:01

not one to blow my own trumpet, but:

coolchilli - 9 Jan'07 - 17:24 - 168 of 318 edit


Trading statement due in the next couple of days. Word on the street is that another acquisition on the cards v. soon...

That said, the people problems posted a while back scare me away from a buy position. While strong on sales, they seem to lack any operational experience.

The way to make money from IPH is to go short in my view. share price will be closer to 100p than 200p, mark my words.

jakleeds - 9 Jan'07 - 17:31 - 169 of 318


Oh, ok then.

Chiva20 - 9 Jan'07 - 22:05 - 170 of 318


Lol - well I'm selling my holding right away.


If you want my advice, brenny, i dont think you should hold on this one. believing in a company and blindly sitting there watching the share price fall is not a smart investment move. if you really believe in ipt and have some standing in the market, maybe take the ceo out for coffee to chat about strategy. i for one cannot see this share going anywhere near 200p again until some confidence is given to the market by a dramatic change in strategy/ exceptional results.

there has been a lot of ramping about this share over the last six months. you can spot who the rampers are (Chiva in particular) by their relative silence in the last week. i think the time for hype on iph is over, and its now time to apply serious investment strategies if you're going to make money on this share. i'm not holding any position (long or short) at the moment, as i cant decide which way the price is going to go, but my hunch is that its going to sit in a fairly tight range for the time.

lets see what the next statement says, and also what TMN say about results. If TMN announce that 2007 has been a quiet year, then maybe there will be a little more faith in IPH. if, on the other hand, and as I suspect TMN say that trading has been good in 2007- this could kill IPH even further.

p.s. brenny, if you're serious about investing- i'll recommend you some good books. let me know and i'll email your gmail account.

[markie7] 31/3/2007 20:14

haha. and there was me thinking this was a quality thread! presumably when you sell, you take the money off them? That would make life interesting.

For what it is worth - here is my view. This is an utter shambles. I read this statement from front to back. 6 pages in, it is still rambling on about how great the company is, then on the bottom of page 6 - THWACK! there it is - it has all slowed down, and trading is difficult. No wonder the stock has been punished - what a hopeless trading statement. Cannacord and Adventis (the well known blue chip advisors - "cough") should be shot for letting that go out.

If you have to do a profit warning, at least front it up and take it on the chin, and explain what the hell is going on in more than 2 sentences. Appalling statement if you think about it. Institutions paid 205p for this less than a year ago, you can be sure there is vitriol behind the scenes in little meeting rooms here.

I just wish I'd shorted this when I spotted it in December (check back) - all the warning signs were there

[t0pgrader] 31/3/2007 16:39

"I am giving them (IPT) some of my money to help because I think they can spend it better than I can and produce a higher return in the long term." Brenny

This is possibly one of the most stupid things ever said about any investment. Obviously it is absurd in the aftermath of the share price collapse but more worryingly the individual seems to think that the consideration for his share purchase goes to the company!

[t0pgrader] 31/3/2007 16:20

Bluebelle

Sorry - been away. If Ok has reported me / you then that's absolutely fine. Whatever accusation he made (other than predicting the share price collapse)is false and he's a double loser for thinking that anyone would waste that much time on a BB trying to explain why they called this stock correctly 5 months ago!!! Unbelievably stupid person. Thanks for sorting it.

brenny

I have no idea who you are so I have no intention of giving away my company's commercial secrets about how to internet market. If you spend £250,000 pa with IPT and believe that's the best value you can get in the market then be happy. I happen to believe otherwise, spotted a commercial weakness in their business, did my research and watched the share price and trade fall away during 06.

FWIW I'm no shorter - I made a decent profit on the upside (see previous post)and may buy back when the mists clear.

PS I'd love to know which business you run.

[bluebelle] 30/3/2007 13:41

brenny

I think we can just agree to differ on this one, not least on the question of what an operating profit is.

Believe me, I know all about the market opportunity and have investments, and businesses, in the sector in its broadest sense, although I am not invested in this company nor have I done business with it, as you have, so don't have that experience.

As I said earlier, this one's not for me at the moment, but best of luck with it anyway. I have no direct interest in it either way, but prefer seeing PIs making money rather than losing it.

[brennymcl] 30/3/2007 13:04

They are making an operating profit.

There is a huge market opportunity in the UK and Europe:



They want to 'seize' it. I want them to seize it.

They are using cash from investors to buy companies that will be earnings enhancing and allow them to extend the range of in house skill so they can grow.

They have successfully deployed that cash in their own opinion so far.

If they just made money hand over fist so they could afford to pay for acquisitions from profits they might as well be private and finance the acquisitions out of cash flow but they have larger growth ambitions and are asking for investor help.

I am giving them some of my money to help because I think they can spend it better than I can and produce a higher return in the long term.

The share price has disappointed me this week, I believe in the fundamentals with good reasons and I do agree this is a high risk play but one that could present a very attractive opportunity for capital growth in the next few years.

[bluebelle] 30/3/2007 12:17

brenny

AS I said, time will tell. I disagree with you about the bmw example. How do you know they make a good profit on sales ? Certainly the aggregate figures tell a different story. They might make a marginal profit on marginal sales, but once you take into account the true cost of building, financing and servicing and maintaining the business, unless I'm misinterpreting them, the figures are clear : they don't. I have organised enough meetings in which I have got my FD to tell my sales & marketing staff the difference between 'profit' in accounting terms, and cash flow, and that, it seems to me is what is at issue here.

I'm not saying the situation here is that dire - I simply don't know - but I have seen plenty of otherwise well run companies, with good products making decent marginal profits go under because they have run out of cash, partly as a result of having to service the cost of getting to the point where they could even make a marginal profit.

You clearly have a lot of faith in the company partly based on your starting point as a satisified customer, and I can understand this. All of the research I have done since I first started looking at this company tells me that it is high risk, and is always likely to be a heavy cash consumer.

Whether or not the fall has been overdone can only be a matter of opinion as, based on the recent announcements, I find it very difficult to forecast future metrics. My feeling however is that it will be some time before it gets back to the levels it was even a couple of weeks ago (although there will be some opportunistic PI buying which will cause it to fluctuate) and that there are better investments elsewhere.

As tOp said in an earlier post, it's differences in opinions that make markets !!!

[ok,yah] 30/3/2007 11:49

Got in at under 100p

[brennymcl] 30/3/2007 11:33

I agree that you have to keep the investment potential and customer experience separate. But you can only take that so far; after all investors interests are closely aligned to a customers interests as long as the company profits from more customers. I think this makes your example a bit silly; Why? Because IPT don't make a loss when they sell to us they make a profit, and a good one. BMW would have to make a loss like you said to put a smile on my face but IPT are managing that and making a good profit.

With regards to using investors money for acquisitions this is a great strategy for IPT for a few good reasons:

1. The have got the model working in the UK very well.
2. They still have room to grow market share in the UK and improve the model.
3. The market is expanding in the UK and elsewhere.
4. Some players in Europe are as big but are not making as much money yet.

I think they work things out carefully and I have confidence that if they are paying a higher multiple for something than I expected it is because they probably know something I don't which is how to grow that company quickly with their technology, sales process and experience and reduce the overall p/e from the transaction going forward.

My feeling from the quote "2006 has been a year of acquisitions" is that they will be focusing more on integrating and maximizing the income from last years acquisitions which if they are successful, and I am betting they will be, that should have a positive impact on H2 2007 and even more so going forward. To integrate a company the size of the one they have just integrated in such a short space of time and successfully is a major achievement all the while with a very tough growth estimate in the background and they hardly missed it by a mile!

My view is there should have been a fall because they didn't beat estimates but it shouldn't have been this severe and the company has consistently shown it can grow year after year so punishing it this much now is irrational and driven by weak and scared holders.

I have even further confidence that a entrepreneur who has proved himself is at the helm and owns over 10% of the equity another great reason to have faith.

[aleman] 30/3/2007 11:30

IBG seems to have bottomed with this inverted Empire State Building yesterday. Let's see if it is the same for IPH.

[johnv] 30/3/2007 11:16

I would not touch this company for a while, wait till things settle down. Just look at SMC it settle into a trading range and then wham fell further.

[bluebelle] 30/3/2007 10:15

brenny
Can only speak formyself but I'm happy to debate issues as long as people are constructive and don't throw their toys out the pram like okyah when someone disagrees with them, and it doesn't take up too much time.

My take on this is that,with respect, your conflating (if that's the right word!) two things which, as an investor, need to be kept separate.
i.e. Your experience as a customer and the investment potential of the stock.

As a customer you've had a good experience and you're happy which is great...up to a point. If BMW dropped the price of a Mini to £3000 and kept everything else unchanged, and I bought one, I'd be happy. But if, by doing that, they lose £7000 on every sale, they will run out of cash and the only thing up for debate is when, not if.

IPH is, IMHO, treading a well worn path of companies building massive, and costly, databases for which they need similarly large regular revenue streams to maintain and develop : before you know it, you're running very fast just to stand still. By capitalising the costs, and adopting a policy of aggressive acquisition, top line growth looks great, but ultimately the only thing that matters is cash.

The history of companies in this sector is one of continually going back to the market for money with a promise of jam tomorrow until the market has had enough and they end up being sold to one of the larger players for a fraction of their 'peak' value and a price related to net cash plus maybe a small premium for good will. Whether or not that happens to IPH remains to be seen.

As a customer, you may still be happy in three years time - after all if you're getting a good service it doesn't matter to you who owns it - but I suspect that your good service will be paid for by investors who, unless I'm very much mistaken and misreading these runes incorrectly, will be asked to dip into their pockets before then.

[brennymcl] 29/3/2007 19:32

What's that supposed to mean apart from you can't back your point up? If you don't back it up then people will assume you are a shorter / deramper even if you have made a clever call.

You probably don't run an online business in the UK because if you did then you would know there isn't an aweful lot more to running a successful one than appearing on Google well. Not that I want to talk them up even though I own their stock too and have done since they went public.

What I would say is this is precisely why companies like IPT are great because they increase the credible competition in a space which is monopolised by one player in the UK and I for one as a buyer of services like this want more competition.

I'm not saying they are the next Google but they have got a great position. Don't say I didn't warn you if you have a short position and get squeezed. I am going to bed to dream of a gap up and even if it doesn't happen tonight it will be very interesting to see where this stock is at in 3 years.

[t0pgrader] 29/3/2007 19:09

There's more to life than Google. Let's leave it there.

[brennymcl] 29/3/2007 18:50

I haven't found a better priced alternative for the quality of leads in either the email or search space and I have done business with all the major players in both spaces. Google, Inc is the only company that comes close in terms of delivering volume and reach which is larger than IPT in my experience but IPT has the price advantage on Google when I translate the services they have provided to cost for an action.

[t0pgrader] 29/3/2007 18:45

brenny

You run a business using IPT so you should know how much you pay for your services. Could you buy cheaper elsewhere? How does the quality compare?

[brennymcl] 29/3/2007 17:49

t0p

I am very interested to know what has gone downhill in the business since you sold apart from the SP?

I haven't got an axe to grind either if I knew something that fundementally changed my opinion of the business then I would sell too, even with a big loss I am currently sitting on, but I don't. All I see is a high growth online media stock now with a p/e of 12 that is generating more and more cash year after year and is a leader in its sector, what is declining there?

I think things are about to go up if they can open up to mid and small businesses more and broaden the client base from mainly blue chip they are sitting on a data goldmine and they know how to use it.