Inland Homes Share Discussion Threads

[norbert colon] 15/4/2016 16:00

David - yes remember that well - lots a few quid when they went bust!

[davidosh] 15/4/2016 15:13

Oakdene Homes .....now there is a blast from the past ! They bought that site in 2008 and then went bust in 2009.

[dt1010] 12/4/2016 21:23

Haha there's nothing a brown envelope in the right hands won't solve!

[shanklin] 07/4/2016 12:40

These appear to be the conditions on the above permission.

[igbertsponk] 07/4/2016 12:36

They got the planning on that annoying pub site in Amersham, finally !

Reference
CH/2015/1742/FA

Application Validated
Wed 04 Nov 2015

Address
The Pheasant Public House 35 Plantation Road Amersham Buckinghamshire HP6 6HL

Proposal
Erection of five residential units, renovation and conversion of grade II listed former public house to provide a sixth residential unit and day nursery facility, associated landscaping access and parking

Status
Decided

Decision
Conditional permission

[sparkyhd] 06/4/2016 22:26

You've done so well recently to suppress your urges that I thought the therapy was working.

But you've started again DT1010.

[dt1010] 06/4/2016 21:27

Bought more.

Too cheap.

Nice.

[scottishfield] 06/4/2016 20:15

Tks Sogoesit

[sogoesit] 06/4/2016 18:50

ST in the Chronic Investor today re-iterates a target of 95p.

[cerrito] 26/3/2016 19:04

A bit of a delay for me to go through the figures as well as the pretty good presentation on the website. For me the robust outlook statement a plus.

Yes a good first half but inevitably could not match the second half of the previous FY ie theJan/June 2015 half. Operating profit was down from £32.4m to £25m with operating profit from Land Sales down from £17m to £6.3m counterbalanced by operating profit from house building going up from £3.2m to £7.3m. Land Sales will always be lumpy.
Need to work out why Receivables doubled in the six months but note that they are at levels comparable to 2013. Cash spent on investments was lower than in the previous two semesters with virtually no purchases of property but as noted in the statement there was cash outflow of £2.3m in loans to j/v’s.
Good that still on track to submit Wilton Park Planning Application in April. I guess we are still waiting for the planning decision on their Aston Clinton site, which will be important for them to meet the target they announced in the AGM statement to get approval of 1545 plots and 72.9k sqft of commercial space by end June 2016. And if they do get the 239 plots at Lily’s Walk, High Wycombe that will make it easier.(Slide 10 talks about 999 consents by end June so I am rather confused…and also when they refer to plots do they regard a flat as the same as a house..a question for the next AGM.)
I see from the slides that they are due to submit shortly an application for the Church Road Ashford site of ex Brooklands College; I googled around to see if there were a lot of articles on local opposition and could find none..perhaps because the application has not been submitted. Googled Lily’s Walk High Wycombe where there has been an application filed and could find no stories of local opposition. This seems to have been around for some time ie Helical Bar were looking at in 2007..perhaps it was a different part of the site.
Glad to see they raised the issue of increasing debt-and recognized the need to bring this down.

[dt1010] 22/3/2016 19:24

He's not 'out' but his positive commentary is!

Keep holding folks, keep buying :))) great news today :)))

[le4r] 22/3/2016 12:05

ST is out. 'Well worth holding on to' 'run profits' with a TP of 95p

[ramridge] 22/3/2016 08:33

Watch out for an analysis by Simon T of IC. He said yesterday that he is looking at INL and will be publishing an article "soon".

[wan] 22/3/2016 08:20

With the top end of the market slowing in London, I wonder if Inland would make a good route to diversifying that focus for say Berkeley Homes? It would not dilute attention on the South-East per se, but it would also add some interesting developments further south as well. Not that my rationale for owning Inland is based on a takeover as the management continue to do a very good job, and as highlighted by others, the NAV will not be static!

[ramridge] 22/3/2016 06:10

" Analysts at Stifel are forecasting full-year adjusted NAV of 93p at the end of June 2016, from 77p a year before." says IC
And as salchow says, the unrealised value within projects will increase as the work moves through the stages towards completion.

[salchow] 21/3/2016 17:31

winsome147 - The ERPNAV of 79p (after deducting deferred tax) reflects the increase in value relative to the stage that planning has achieved. It is not the full profit to be earned on completion of a development and as they are completed the figure will increase. Quite apart from that we are not looking at a company that is winding up. They have planning approval in respect of 1,146 plots but there are another 4,526 where they are seeking permission and no doubt more will be added on a regular basis.

[winsome147] 21/3/2016 17:00

PE is irrelevant when it comes to housebuilders. Its all about NAV IMO. A lot of people were touting 100p NAV per share for Inland but its way off. The steam has gone out of the housebuilding market. This is the first Jan-Mar quarter in years that housebuilders have not risen. The big ones are way above NAV at present but Inl is a tiddler and may not move much above NAV. Who will snap up INL when the ERPNAV of 79p after tax relates to value of assets once completed? There is no value in it for the big boys at current price. I've been a fan and have bought a few times on the lows and sold on highs but I think the party is over for a while.

[ramridge] 21/3/2016 11:28

With a prospective PE of around 7, the downside risk is limited, whilst the upside is really good. I have added to the limit of my portfolio exposure to the property market. I am awaiting to see what the brokers have to say.

[muffster] 21/3/2016 11:03

I agree Ram, had that figure too. Am busy buying

[ramridge] 21/3/2016 10:39

Hi IgbertSponk - I have looked at the report again and yes, you have pointed me in the right direction.
They have included the property revaluation in the income accounts , FY2015 report and in this report. But my error was not to adjust for the revaluation when calculating the full year income estimate. Sort of double counting. Comparing like with like and not double counting the revaluation, I now make a conservative estimate for full year eps to be 12-13. Still beating current broker forecast.
All IMO and DYOR

[igbertsponk] 21/3/2016 10:18

Difference is they've now managed to revalue the Beaconsfield houses held as investment properties. Previously they couldn't. So arguable just a one-off benefit and hence you shouldn't factor into PE multiples.

[ramridge] 21/3/2016 10:09

Guys - Can a bright spark tell me where I am going wrong?
Before today's results, Stocko showed a forecast FY2016 eps = 10, and MorningStar 5.7.
Never mind the huge discrepancy and let's take the best estimate to be 10.

Today's HY results show an eps = 9.4 for the half year.
Which means that we have already pretty much earned the whole of the eps that the brokers are forecasting ( and in the case of MorningStar data, a lot more).

So to my mind if 9.4 is in the bag, a forecast eps for FY16 of 15 is conservative.

On that basis and taking today's share price of 84, prospective PE comes to 84/15 = 5.6

So why is the share price languishing at 84 ? What am I missing? Is the second half eps going to go negative, i.e. INL is expected to make losses in the 2nd half 2016?