Hydrodec Share Discussion Threads

[kendonagasaki] 18/9/2016 04:04

Looks like it's hanging on a thread on life support.Any further cash burn with no profits and they will be need refinancing at a 1p if this keeps up.Caution advised here IMO.?

[capricious] 16/9/2016 11:24

Is there a name for this alternate reality you live in, or do you take something extra with your morning Weetabix?

[dreamtwister] 16/9/2016 10:25

kendo you called it right !......breaking news.......hyr.......will be recycling push bike oil...due to the surge of the green revoulution.......on yer bike cap

[capricious] 16/9/2016 08:48

I suspect today's movement is that cash is still tight, although they still have 1.4million in working capital reserve from Andrew and 0.6m in the bank.


I haven't as yet found out if G&S have paid the next tranche that is owed as part of the agreement.


I'd be surprised if the CEO is talking about watching for further business expansion opportunities, if there were concerns.


Another point, Canaccord would've had greater details than we further in advance, and they recently upped the target price to 7p.


*Right thought the spread hadn't updated, the recent surge were buys but marked as sells. We might get a recovery later on, the latest RNS was never about reporting a profit as such, I think expectations need to be tempered by the fact that 2016 is about setting the stage for profitability going forward. Maybe it isn't quick enough for some.

[capricious] 16/9/2016 08:33

Be surprised if we see the market reward Hydrodec with a significant movement up (and the evidence so far isn't stellar... and at the time of writing, it's just dropped back again), as we knew some of the details already, and that H1 would still be impacted by the poor start to the year.

[capricious] 16/9/2016 08:19

On initial reading, the interim results are very encouraging. I thought the price movement of the past week or so, was a little strange, we had a relatively quick fall below 3p and some bigger trades that were clearly buys but disguised by delayed entries.


The RNS backs up my assumption that 2016 is (and setting expectations) all about recovery and creating the platform for 2017.

[capricious] 12/9/2016 08:10

The Paris climate conference outlined some further details on the carbon market


Although like the previous conferences, action must actually follow mere words but there was some interesting titbits.

===
Since January 2015, the California and Québec markets have been linked, and the two have held 12 joint carbon auctions to date. Ontario has signalled its intent to join this carbon market ‘club’ and Manitoba, Washington, and Oregon are also exploring the feasibility of joining;

The People’s Republic of China announced its plans for a national ETS to start in 2017;

Korea launched a national ETS in 2015, becoming the first nation-wide trading programme in Asia
===

With other countries pursing similar programmes at different times, with links between the clubs. There is also some pressure to increase the floor of carbon pricing in a upward trend.


Now these facts don't have much for medium term but of interest is China and Korea starting their markets, and presumably providing further motivation for such technology and knowledge that Hydrodec posses. The expanding Californian market is also encouraging.



Paris carbon pricing summary, posted here for brevity ( not reguired reading! )
hxxp://www.ieta.org/resources/Resources/Reports/Carbon_Pricing_The_Paris_Agreements_Key_Ingredient.pdf

[capricious] 08/9/2016 09:10

No this is absolutely brilliant, been waiting for this for a long time. Yes although in the immediate period the sums are nominal the longer term monitisation is material, and another revenue stream to offset against debt/general investment.


And as you say, it's more than the sums involved, it was always (at least for me) about the indirect benefit. They now have a very strong card that no other transformer oil supplier can bring to the negotiating stage. In today's climate (no pun intended) this sustainable oil story is compelling. I hope they manage to generate some media coverage, it's the first of it's kind in their market.


Well done once again.



I'd be interested on their thoughts about licensing their tech (with all new reactor designs, proven track record, and now approved by the ACR) to other international zones (China/India/Mexico etc). Probably too early as they would need 2017 under their belt with a proper full year of solid production but surely other major oil related companies would've taken notice of something like this.

[capricious] 06/9/2016 13:55

Canaccord Genuity upped their price target to 7.00p... all seems to be going in the right direction.

[1gw] 24/8/2016 13:47

That's me buying some more at 3.5p, taking advantage of the reduced spread. I like the last couple of updates and hope the company really is on the road to profitability and renewed growth now.

[capricious] 18/8/2016 14:47

3 Sept? I missed that date.


Certainly over a full year of (80%ish utilisation) operation, there looks to be a significant improvement over previous years, even before the annus horribilis... or two! For me, expectations for 2016 are all about recovery and setting a platform for 2017. If the numbers tell me that (and that debt can be serviced) I'll be pleased

[chickenrun1] 18/8/2016 14:15

Just logged in to see the news. Selling lots of oil then.

Results on Sep 3 will be looked forward to.

[capricious] 18/8/2016 09:40

It's almost as if my post and this latest note were choreographed.


Focusing on Hydrodec's core strength is showing clear signs of being rewarded.


In Chris's understated style, the company has posted a number of notes that all show continued improvements. As to my point about competing purely on merits, rather than some green fad that (supposedly has been overtaken by mythical, and as yet to be defined, new tech...according to some). Hydrodec's final product is industry leading.


Well done guys

[capricious] 16/8/2016 14:01

In a simplified response; the type of quality transformer oil that Hydrodec produces, remains by a long long way, the required cooling lubricant, whatever the power generation. That's coal, gas, nuclear, wind, wave, large scale solar etc etc.


Transformers have maintenance cycles that must be adhered to, I guess there might be some flexibility in the schedule, so purchases could be put off but that's also the point. Everyone thinks high oil prices are a good thing. In Hydrodec's case, that is not always a given. Very high crude prices can create bad problems in sourcing feedstock, including increased competition, although the partnership with G&S mitigates past problems.


Granted, higher prices to a point do provide incentives for re-refining and generally greater room for improved margins but Hydrodec is not just selling their product as a green alternative, it now competes as a recognised premium producer. It took many years to turn the monolithic industry to recognising that re-refined could compete and exceed virgin based products.


The global economy might not be going gangbusters but as far as I can tell from the data, it still seems to be moving along adequately. The US (China/India/UK et al) is building homes, businesses, factories... so they all require power, and currently transformers, and therefore transformer oil.


Again in simplistic terms, the key to long term profitability for Hydrodec is no more business stopping bad luck (touch wood), utilisation, demand, scale. (with all the other things like cost control etc)


Utilisation: the new reactors are reaching optimal rates, producing 500hr oil.

Demand: currently looks to be healthy & with a 'normalising' oil market, margins are starting to improve.

Scale. With the upgrade in the US and the move in Australia, the scale is now at a level where profitability can be achieved. We still need further scale expansion as Hydrodec refocuses towards their core strengths, and penetrates further into the US market.

[duncan doughnut] 06/8/2016 17:29

You better tell those crazy directors buying loads of shares just 6 weeks ago dreamtwister, they obviously don't know the business as well as you do.

[dreamtwister] 06/8/2016 12:26

hyr are generated by the price of oil & if it rise`s or drops in reflection the sp
follows !the mug punters reading your dribble average down without doing due dilligence & generate volume for the mm`s (which they get a cut) rightly so !

the director smale never brought into hyr as being a x bp boff he done his dd !

cap you once declared you have no holding`s in hyr ? did you have inside info ?

hyr have had no new contracts for year`s as the transformer market is drying up as new technology is replacing fossil fuels !hyr have missed the trip...lol

with hyr having all thier eggs in one basket the share price has cracked !

[capricious] 06/8/2016 10:05

Which bit were you referring to as tosh, your comments on poo or the fact that the MMs do all they can to generate volume (which they get a cut of) whilst providing liquidity & managing their risk?

[dreamtwister] 05/8/2016 16:44

what a load of old tosh....poo drops....hyr drops....poo rise`s.... hyr.... % rise`s

[capricious] 05/8/2016 16:26

I think the MMs know their business, the recent share price uptick had gone about as far as it was for the time being, the share price then is dropped more than current fundamentals would suggest, cue a rush in buying volume to generate those healthy commissions.

[eclair] 05/8/2016 09:30

Nice flurry of buying this morning.

[capricious] 25/7/2016 18:21

Saboteur!!


Hopefully this is a new range, ready for next progress. The spread is nearly back to the norm for Hydrodec. Although having a small spread on a share is good, in the current circumstance, it was a bad thing.

[kendonagasaki] 25/7/2016 14:46

Spoke to soon ....,,,ah well!