Hydrodec Share Discussion Threads

[cyfran101] 23/9/2015 23:27

I'm attracted to the ideals of this business but the reality is not proving so attractive.

Australia appears to only aim for producing a small profit, the delays in US don't give me any trust that October full production will be achieved and even when it does achieve that target all monies will be consumed by the UK money pit.

I can see the ultimate business model for the UK and they have built up good feedstock sources however they have admitted that they cannot use the Hydrodec tech to produce top quality recycled oil but instead have to use a lesser technology as a stop gap.

The delays in US and the challenging UK environment they are expanding in are real concerns for when they will make a profit. 5 years?

[caradog] 23/9/2015 10:25

The reduction from 19 to 10 million could also be expressed as a delay of a few weeks in reaching full production - not that significant in the long term. Having to sell pfo to Europe because of falling UK demand is more of a concern. Ah well, at least I'm hedged against an oil price rebound!

[luminoso] 23/9/2015 10:10

I think 'not particularly upbeat' is a bit of an understatement. At the AGM, Canton was forecast to produce 19m litres in 2015. Then in August, the update said it would not achieve that, but gave no forecast. Now we are told it will be 10m litres, nearly halving expectations since June. Cash seems uncomfortably low.
This will turn around, because the management are doing what they should. Cost cutting is impressive. Its a grim reality that they have basically been hammered by events outside their control. All IMO.

[spike_1] 23/9/2015 09:23

well, I've taken the opportunity to top up my holding.
Edit: before the price went up ;0)
Best wishes - Mike

[caradog] 23/9/2015 08:03

I have to agree. Canton up and running at design spec in a month or so, Australia coming on stream after reorganisation, but UK business struggling with low oil prices.
When cereal prices fall, farmers expect an immediate drop in the price of feed, when cereal prices rise they expect a delay in feed price increases as increased raw material costs work through the system. I expect that Hydrodec's margins are suffering from the same syndrome, but will improve as the market settles down at the new oil price.

[1gw] 23/9/2015 07:05

Those results are not particularly upbeat I have to say.

[mortimer7] 14/9/2015 15:29

Not long now till update:
A further update on expected production (Canton) for the year will be provided with the publication of the 2015 interim results on the 23 September 2015.

[luminoso] 08/9/2015 17:15

Interesting 15 percent rise today.

[capricious] 03/9/2015 10:17

Two years ago Kendonagasaki was haranguing Hydrodec, two years later, we get more of the same.... +8 years ago Barclays was near £7, it's now £2.6... it's not all up and up.

[kendonagasaki] 03/9/2015 09:12

Two years ago we were at 8p.Two years later we are at 6.75pGreat company going nowhere.Jam,Jam,Jam tomorrow......730 days later....still waiting for more Jam?

[yump] 25/8/2015 21:10

What conclusion is reasonable, when there is bad news around, but a share doesn't drop any further when its already dropped a lot ?

Opposite of when there is good news around, its risen a lot and it doesn't keep rising ?

This will be a good test. Second lot of 'bad' news on Canton, plus market corrects quite drastically but HYD stays the same 'ish.

[finraj] 25/8/2015 19:14

Last week was a good opportunity. With management having confirmed that they are pursuing debt/asset based financing, don't know what is holding this stock back

[capricious] 25/8/2015 16:55

But the share price remains exactly where it has been for a long while now. The global sell off was typical over-reaction, money rushing out, then rushing back in. Although crude prices are soft, I'm not sure fundamentally the market has changed much.

China's stock market might be all over the place with policy makers, removing support (hence maybe the panic sell off) then bringing it back again etc... but they are still buying up crude.

August is a quite month for oil, lets hope things pick up a little as the year progresses.

[luminoso] 25/8/2015 14:42

The sell off yesterday included Oil and sadly, wrongly one could say, the market in HYR seems to track the Oil price these days. Technical problems at Canton not helping.

[capricious] 21/8/2015 10:18

I think the drop has a lot to do with the global sell off, rather than Hydrodec itself.


The fact that they've produced Superfine and in large quantities means there isn't a major issue. I think from previous RNS, they usually tweak the reactors continuously to improve performance over the years. For whatever reason the heat exchanger units were not constructed with the tolerances that Hydrodec spec'd, and are not optimal.

[stevedd] 20/8/2015 10:17

I agree, if I'd had the funds ready I would probably have topped up this morning.

[mortimer7] 20/8/2015 09:21

Looks like MMs messed up this morning by overdoing the drop at opening. Misinterpreting what looks like a report of a relatively minor obstacle.

[yump] 20/8/2015 09:12

They're probably custom-built, so until you run them at full tilt you don't know if any mods. are needed.

Loads of companies that make them. Absolute guarantees on capacity are needed, so every detail needs to be covered. I can't imagine there is anything odd about the liquids involved that is causing a challenge, so any company making the heat exchanger should be able to modify anything that will ensure reliable full capacity.

[eclair] 20/8/2015 09:06

Well done Spike. I had some broadband problems this morning and missed the opportunity. Still, I may get another chance.

[spike_1] 20/8/2015 08:33

Alan, it hasn't failed. Heat exchangers (which are not rocket science) are not running optimally and need modifying. Probably not a big deal, but has delayed HY reaching their target production quite so soon.

Best wishes - Mike

[spike_1] 20/8/2015 08:29

A really good buying opportunity first thing - and I did ;0)

[alanrussell] 20/8/2015 08:29

Worrying. I know little of what is involved but are we looking at a process that operates at such pressures/temperatures that it is always going to liable to failure?

[stevedd] 20/8/2015 08:04

Wow, expected a drop on this RNS but not 20%!

[spike_1] 20/8/2015 07:39

Also no word on trains 3 - 6, which - I'm guessing - will be modded prior to start up.

Ho hum ;0(

Best wishes - Mike