Hydrodec Share Discussion Threads

[hatey] 26/10/2016 10:52

If there is a big overhang then the mm is playing a canny game of hiding because I'm getting just 50k max.

Been buying in little amounts, like a overhang play and near 2p is a fair price considering it jumped over 4p a few months ago

[chorister] 26/10/2016 09:43

I think I am right in saying that most of HYR's net income is in US$ and its borrowings are in sterling. I think that means it is a big beneficiary of the lower exchange rate and the debt will become easier to service.

[the shuffle man] 26/10/2016 09:18

Problem is we seem to have two institutions, Royal London and Aviva who have been selling which is leading to a massive overhang of stock so any other sellers are just pushing the price down.

My worry is if the share price stays this low for much longer and with the weak Pound I wouldn't be surprised if an overseas buyer makes an opportunistic bid for the company at this low level.

[kendonagasaki] 26/10/2016 08:34

HSCB GLOBAL are continuing to dump here....?Looks like they have given up.

[capricious] 17/10/2016 14:19

That was a delayed transaction, which can disguise the trade

[cyberbub] 17/10/2016 13:59

Is that another 500k dumped by Aviva? The overhang might last for another 6 or 9 months at this rate!!

[capricious] 17/10/2016 10:23

Without checking those sells look like buys, I don't see much movement but we might recover a little*. The first transaction of the morning got clobbered a bit but then that's why I usually stay clear of Monday morning transactions.


* Also as far as I can tell, there is no mention of the news by the usual suspects online. Ok it's not earth shattering but should filter through later

[capricious] 17/10/2016 10:15

So we have the answer to the G&S investment.

I had to re-read that, I thought it meant they have over time been supplying feedstock and reached the stated amount, meaning that dividend so to speak, has already been accounted for. I'm pretty sure that's not the case at all and the whole new consideration adds nicely to the cash flow situation.

Good news in my book, as we head into the last quarter of 2016 and into Q1 of 2017

[the shuffle man] 15/10/2016 09:23

I don't know but I'm sure if they had finished selling we would get a strong bounce so still believe there is a big overhang to clear.

[cyberbub] 15/10/2016 08:53

How do you know they are selling out the lot, Shuffle Man?

[the shuffle man] 11/10/2016 13:35

They are depressing the current share price. For long termers an opportunity to add here. Once they have been cleared out we should move a lot higher.

[the shuffle man] 11/10/2016 13:01

only another 89m shares to go !

[capricious] 11/10/2016 12:35

As The Shuffle Man pointed out, Aviva has been offloading, each time the price has risen that offloading seems to hit more.

[capricious] 05/10/2016 12:28

A small improvement and higher volume, not sure whether that is just a simple reaction to Saudi's capitulation on prices, or the selling mentioned by The Shuffle Man, has stopped, or something in the wind...

[capricious] 28/9/2016 09:12

Good post 1gw

That's how I see it. Tight but doable, especially if they are yet to receive the money from G&S. If at the end of the report they are talking about eyeing further expansion opportunities, that doesn't seem like they are worried. Besides I believe they would have to highlight problems of a serious nature as part of the fiduciary duty, unless that is only true for the final accounts.

[1gw] 27/9/2016 22:31

Hmmm. If you look at the detail though they reported:

$2.0m operating cash outflow
$2.4m working capital outflow
$1.7m cash inflows from disposal
$2.5m cash inflows from financing (mainly proceeds from loans & borrowings)

So net $0.2m out, but clearly the disposal proceeds and financing inflows are not sustainable in the long term.

$0.6m cash on the balance sheet and $1.4m headroom for wc vs operating cash outflow in the first half of $2.0m and $2.4m wc outflow.

So if they can get to "profitability" in 2H hopefully the operating cash outflow stops and they still have some wc headroom to expand the business.

But it all looks pretty tight in my opinion and they can't afford too much going wrong on the cashflow front in 2H.

Still, I think perhaps that's why the shares are at such a low price and I feel comfortable adding at this price, given the recent run of relatively positive news.

[napoleon 14th] 27/9/2016 15:11

From unaudited interims:
"Operating cash outflow (before working capital movements) reduced to US$2.0 million (H1 2015: US$5.8 million). The improved EBITDA performance resulted in lower working capital outflows which reduced from $3.0 million to $2.4 million. Total net cash expended in the first six months of 2016 was US$0.2 million compared to a US$12.6 million outflow in the prior year comparable period. Overall, the Group held US$0.6 million in cash on its balance sheet at the end of the period and retained approximately US$1.4 million headroom under its working capital facilities provided by Andrew Black, a Director and the Company's largest shareholder. "

So, if cashflow doesn't improve (which would surprise me) we have 18 months
of immediate funds to spare, and three & a half years if Andrew Black is called
on to the full.

As HYR are constantly improving their figures, I can't say I'm loosing sleep over this.

[1gw] 27/9/2016 10:44

Still like this one, although I admit the cash situation is a bit precarious at the moment.

Bought some more at 2.7p.

[capricious] 19/9/2016 15:43

Ah thought so, thanks Shuffle Man

[the shuffle man] 19/9/2016 14:24

Hi Cap

Haven't seen that receipt mentioned anywhere.

[capricious] 19/9/2016 14:11

@TheShuffleMan,


I haven't seen but may have missed it, has G&S paid their next tranche yet? If not and presumably they will as it's part of the contract, then that would provide a well deserved cash injection.

[the shuffle man] 19/9/2016 10:30

The company is in the best shape it has ever been and looks like it is now profitable.

Problem we have short term is that it seems like Aviva are offloading so there could be a large overhang for a considerable time.

[dreamtwister] 19/9/2016 10:06

so forrest yump... why are you left holding the baby ?

[yump] 19/9/2016 07:30

Nobody asked for your opinion and we know it in advance anyway, its pretty predictable.