Hutchmed (china) Share Discussion Threads

[steeplejack] 30/11/2016 14:36

To remind of the obvious,the price in New York has just ticked through $13-50 which was the price level of the March placing.Our £ price is that much higher than Marchs's courtesy of Brexit inspired sterling weakness.

[sspurt] 30/11/2016 13:53

just in time for the 2016 sharepick results - been heavily under water most of the year :(

[nerdofsteel] 28/11/2016 17:06

Nice long awaited uplift on AIM shares and ADR price today............after many weeks of stagnation - lots of news due

[nerdofsteel] 23/11/2016 15:33

Keep the updates coming - excellent progress

[nerdofsteel] 21/11/2016 09:55

Fruquintinib - "potential NDA submission in mid-2017"

No slipping please, this is vital in order to get our valuation growth back on track

[nerdofsteel] 11/11/2016 12:22

What is due in the next 3-6 months?

Publishing data on 4 drug candidates in 5 Phase Ib-III studies:

Savolitinib Phase II data in PRCC.
Epitinib Phase Ib data in NSCLC with brain metastasis.
Fruquintinib Phase II data in third-line NSCLC.
Sulfatinib Phase II data in pancreatic and extra-pancreatic NET.
Fruquintinib Phase III top-line data in third-line or above colorectal cancer – potential NDA submission in mid-2017.

Likely to initiate three pivotal registration trials on two further drug candidates:

Savolitinib Phase III in c-Met-driven PRCC.
Epitinib Phase II/III in first-line patients with EGFR-mutant NSCLC with brain metastasis.
Savolitinib Phase III in combination with Tagrisso® (osimertinib) in second-line NSCLC (T790M-/c-Met+).

[nerdofsteel] 11/11/2016 07:14

I have a 10 year timeframe having bought at circa 300p and sold out at 450p, then bought a large holding a couple of years ago. I've done a lot of financial modelling on HCM based on forecast revenues and blended P/E, P/S and net margin numbers. I see a Company with a mcap of at least $10bn in the next 10 years....

[nerdofsteel] 07/11/2016 13:03

Still waiting, long term gains will be extremely high in my opinion

[nerdofsteel] 31/10/2016 08:14

Land compensation received

Now we need all the pipeline data

Savolitinib Phase II data in PRCC
Epitinib Phase Ib data in NSCLC with brain metastasis
Fruquintinib Phase II data in third-line NSCLC
Sulfatinib Phase II data in pancreatic and extra-pancreatic NET
Fruquintinib Phase III top-line data in third-line or above colorectal cancer
Savolitinib Phase III in c-Met-driven PRCC
Epitinib Phase II/III in first-line patients with EGFR-mutant NSCLC with brain metastasis
Savolitinib Phase III in combination with Tagrisso® (osimertinib) in second-line NSCLC (T790M-/c-Met+)

[nhb001] 28/10/2016 13:27

Seconded. Very interesting. Thanks for posting Nerdofsteel.

[reptile3] 28/10/2016 10:15

Nerdofsteel that interview was very, very good. Thank you.

[nerdofsteel] 28/10/2016 07:20

Great CEO interview

hxxp://www.panmure.com/features/meet-ceo/chi-med/

[nerdofsteel] 23/10/2016 18:49

Great point Reptile, thankyou. I was a holder in WCC and made a very good return, having sold just prior to the London de-listing. Also made a great investment in China Medical Systems Ltd. Call me mad but I can us with a market cap of $10bn revenues of $1bn and earnings of $200m by circa 2020 if we get New Drug Approvals for Savolitinib and Fruquintinib completed. Those numbers are based on our share of early, not peak sales.

As the second biggest Company on AIM someone did ask our CEO a question about moving to the Main List at the AGM in April but he said it wasn't something they have considered yet.

I've also observed there are many late stage Biotechs in the U.S. with smaller pipelines, smaller revenues and no earnings, but with much bigger market caps than ours......

[reptile3] 21/10/2016 19:28

Yes, it's £18 not £20.... my mistake.
I agree a move out of AIM is desirable but only after revenues have increased significantly. A listing on the main London Exchange would then be my preference but I wouldn't rule out a listing in Hong Kong (like West China Cement a few years ago where the share price really took off).

[nerdofsteel] 21/10/2016 09:19

The ADR's were given away, presumably based on the fact Investors were not prepared to pay what the Company wanted. AIM Shareholders were treated badly IMO although I suspect the Company is aware that a) there are very few Shareholders and b) people need to treat this as a very long term investment.

I'd be happy if we de-listed from AIM IF there was an appetite amongst U.S. Institutional Investors for our Company, which there isn't at the moment.

I suspect U.S. Investors are very wary about investing in a Chinese Biotech, even though its effectively majority owned and run by Hutchison Whampoa.

Having said all of that I can't see us staying at circa £1bn when we have revenues in the low $ billions and earnings in the hundreds of $ millions.

[steeplejack] 20/10/2016 19:08

I didn't predict any bounce in biotechs,I simply pointed out that the sector had enjoyed a recent rally in which HCM hadn't participated.Anyway,HCM isn't around £20,its 10% lower than that if ones going to scrutinise sector and stock.My annoyance lies in the fact that I got suckered into buying on the ADR ramp.I sold half of my holding months ago.I think there's every possibility that HCM will follow GWP and decamp from the AIM market.It costs about £250,000 a year to pay for an AIM listing plus all the trimmings.Why do they bother.Future funding will almost certainly be focused on the US.Don't pay any attention to me,I only wish to chastise myself for awful timing in buying this stock.

[reptile3] 20/10/2016 16:03

Hi steeplejack. You appear to be a little negative on hcm at the moment. In August you were saying how well the Nasdaq biotech index was doing and the article you posted was bullish for it's future. In fact it has dropped 10.8% since then. HCM has remained fairly level at around £20 over the past two months while the Nasdaq pharma index has dropped around 7.4%. And as for the 'pitiful AIM volumes' I don't see volumes on the Nasdaq anything to shout about. Happy to be corrected if I'm wrong.

[steeplejack] 20/10/2016 10:40

I see that GWP has announced its intent to abandon an AIM listing come December and concentrate on its NASDAQ listing.If this company considers doing the same(which I think it might given the pitiful AIM volumes)I fear Chi-Med might crystallise a capital loss for some......me included!They don't need listing in the UK by all accounts.The NASDAQ listing did UK holders a great disservice.If they abandon a UK listing,it'll be the nail in the coffin.

[steeplejack] 20/10/2016 09:43

And all those revenues and profits are only of interest if shareholders receive a dividend.....which they don't here.

[nerdofsteel] 18/10/2016 11:00

Despite that I assume when we have revenues in the billions and earnings in the hundreds of millions we will have a market cap many times of what it is today.

Jiangsu Hengrui is a reasonable Company to compare to.

[nerdofsteel] 18/10/2016 07:08

That is a very good pint steeplejack. Thank You.

[steeplejack] 17/10/2016 15:34

US institutions won't buy because one of the attractions of biotech is that if a company gets lucky and discovers something big,it will nine times out of ten get taken over!This stock is takeover proof.

[nerdofsteel] 13/10/2016 08:18

hmmmm yes!
He still has a large holding and maybe he sold to fund something such as a house purchase but the price drift is frustrating, especially the fact we are down 16% on NASDAQ since the IPO.

Almost no U.S. institutional Investors on board (similar to Beigene). My conclusion is the big U.S. Specialist Funds will not invest because we are a Chinese Company, albeit controlled by a Hong Kong conglomerate.

[steeplejack] 12/10/2016 13:53

Non- exec share sale.He's got bored like the rest of us.