Hutchmed (china) Share Discussion Threads

[shampers] 11/1/2017 12:10

Whats up ?

[nerdofsteel] 04/1/2017 09:58

Hopefully will correct itself as it usually does over time, big material news on its way:-

Publishing data on 4 drug candidates in 5 Phase Ib-III studies:
Savolitinib Phase II data in PRCC.
Sulfatinib Phase II data in pancreatic and extra-pancreatic NET.
Fruquintinib Phase III top-line data in third-line or above colorectal cancer – potential NDA submission in mid-2017.

Likely to initiate three pivotal registration trials on two further drug candidates:
Savolitinib Phase III in c-Met-driven PRCC.
Epitinib Phase II/III in first-line patients with EGFR-mutant NSCLC with brain metastasis.
Savolitinib Phase III in combination with Tagrisso® (osimertinib) in second-line NSCLC (T790M-/c-Met+).

[steeplejack] 03/1/2017 21:07

Low volume in New York,but at current xrates,the AIM quote is currently standing at a discount to the NASDAQ price of over 5% .

[nerdofsteel] 22/12/2016 07:15

What ramp? There's no need for me to ramp the shares of any Company, especially this one.

[ionlypostafterbbms] 21/12/2016 11:29

In case any of you are thinkng about listening to Nerdofsteel's ramp be aware he was one of the main rampers supporting & urging people to buy Quindell.

It's all in his posting history.

HTH.

P.S. He also uses the ID daveycaferacer.

[nerdofsteel] 21/12/2016 11:23

slow in NA and slow in the UK, lowish volumes, very few Private Investorsm which is what I like after all the ramping/deramping manipulated nonsense with most AIM stocks. I'm in this for another 12 years....

[hamsterdam] 20/12/2016 12:02

Yeah, thought it would have moved the share price a little though

[nerdofsteel] 20/12/2016 11:40

Chairman continues to buy ADR's no doubt looking forward to be the explosive growth coming next year

[nerdofsteel] 14/12/2016 08:40

Our Chairman buys some ADRs at $14.18 - he certainly knows what is to come over the next few years when I believe the Company will be worth many many multiples of what it us today.........

[nerdofsteel] 11/12/2016 15:21

New updated note



Excellent valuation updates which will only increase more into next year with New Drug Applications

[nerdofsteel] 07/12/2016 10:11

The LSE share price tanked because the NASDAQ IPO (2 x ADR's per AIM Ordinary share) was priced below what was originally expected, presumably because the Institutions taking up the offer wouldn't pay the full price.

The effect was the London share price tanked overnight.

Now Institutions are starting to buy on NASDAQ, because they can see exactly how valuable the pipeline is and that this Company is unique in the Biotech space eg. it actually generates cash.

The bb is quiet because there are very very few Private Investors, most are instutions (it is Mark Slater's largest holding in his growth fund. CK Hutchison hold 60%.

IMO most private Investors do not invest because drug development is a very very long term game. However, after 14 years we have our first drugs coming to the market next year and these will be Blockbusters with peak annual sales potential of $100's millions

Looking at the sales forecasts, using standard valuations of P/E, P/S, nett margis etc it is my view we will have a mcap in excess of $10bn within the next 5-10 years

[nerdofsteel] 07/12/2016 07:10

I suspect Li Ka-Shing the richest man in Asia knows what he is doing and CK Hutchison have never sold any shares. They have diluted slightly by not taking part in the recent NASDAQ IPO but that's all. I think of them as a kind of Berkshire Hathaway of Asia really, although in this case they started the Company themselves prior to the 2006 London IPO.

The real value of the Company and it's deep and broad drug pipeline will start to come through over the next 5 years as we get multiple drugs with multiple targets being released. We now also have the cash where we no longer need to give away rights to the remaining wholly owned drugs to get cash.

A great example of a drug that was sold is Ibrutinib, which prompted Pharamcyclics to be bought by Abbvie for $21 billion in 2015. Ibrutinib was really their only asset of note, with forecast annual peak sales of $5 billion. We have more than one with forecasted similar sales, so you can see the kind of valuation we could get to.

[haydock] 06/12/2016 12:51

Many thanks for the update, it was the founders who always attracted my attention years ago.
Big names behind a small cap, & I was right, just attracted elsewhere too often.

[nerdofsteel] 06/12/2016 12:26

The one thing I've learned from investing in the Biotech sector is the difference in terminology:-

Short term = 5 - 10 years
Medium Term = 10 -15 years
Long term = 15 years+

Having spent 15 years developing these drug candidates we have the potential for 2 drugs - Savolitinib PRCC and Fruquintinib CRC to be submitted for NDA next year. These are both forecast for peak sales in the billions by the mid 2020's with more drugs to follow. The Company will become a large scale Biopharma.

I compare similar Companies (ahead in the development cycle) such as Genmab which was worth $220m mcap 5 years ago and is now worth $10bn. Our pipeline, revenues etc are similar to Genmab back then so you can see what could happen to HCM within the next 5 years

[haydock] 06/12/2016 11:18

You can tell I am a slow burner !
Thanks for the update, not a pharma person, but I know the charts on this one & the basic story from years back.
Had to bail from the interesting AVO & the time was right at last to come here, & hopefully stay a long time.

[nerdofsteel] 06/12/2016 07:25

Not too late if you plan to hold over the long term haydock. With 7 drugs in multiple studies and a mix of PI PII and PIII and Savolitinib and Frquintinib BT designation likely next year this will be a $10bn+ mcap company in the next 5 - 10 years IMO

[haydock] 05/12/2016 12:42

Well having tracked this since it was @ 250p years ago, I have finally found a way in!!
Bit late, but better late than never.
Have spent years tracking this on :

hxxp://www.ichimokutrader.com/

Maybe a little too late to catch the full bullish run since Nov 8th, but hoping for a merry Christmas.
Cheers Hay.

[nerdofsteel] 04/12/2016 18:12

indeed davey but look at it now, 4 years later it's gone from 450p to 2240p but hold because we have seen nothing yet

[nerdofsteel] 04/12/2016 16:41

Thanks Steeplejack, I noticed that

I have a model which uses a range of criteria to value the Company based on blended Biotech and Pharmaceutical averages of P/E, P/S and nett margins, amongst other metrics.

Based in what is a very conservative revenue number of $657m, which assumes Savolitinib and Frquinitinib get BT for certain targets and only achieve 50% of forecast peak sales my valuation figures are:-

2020
Revs $657,000,000
EPS $1.56
P/S 10.92
mcap $5,902,845,408
ADR Price $48.66
Ordinary share price £76.63 (2 x ADR)

Moving from 2020 towards 2025 and 2030 the figures become even more interesting.

The only thing that may hold back some U.S. Institutional Investors is that there's little if any chance of the Company being taken over, unlike small U.S Biotech's that often get a single drug or a couple of drugs to market then get swallowed up by a major player (Baxalta is a great example)

[steeplejack] 02/12/2016 10:52

Written up in latest IC -In our view, the high potential of the clinical pipeline makes Chi-Med a very attractive investment proposition and recent share price weakness offers an excellent entry point. Plus, as the group closes in on commercial launch it is likely to grab the attention of more biotech-savvy US investors and that could drive the price up further. Buy.Investors Chronicle 2 Dec

[nerdofsteel] 30/11/2016 15:21

Options purchased at 153.5p could easily be disposed of for circa 2000p but Doctor Weiguo has decided to retain them.

I wonder why. Could it be he knows what is coming over the next few years as Blockbuster drugs such as Savolitinib for PRCC and Fruquintinib + 5 others start to come to the market.

The real value of this Company is in the tens of $billions over the next 5 - 10 years. You only have to look at smaller competitors with smaller pipelines and no cash generative commercial platform to see that.

2025 valuation = circa $10 billion if new drugs get released on schedule and they build towards peak sales as forecast

[steeplejack] 30/11/2016 14:36

To remind of the obvious,the price in New York has just ticked through $13-50 which was the price level of the March placing.Our £ price is that much higher than Marchs's courtesy of Brexit inspired sterling weakness.

[sspurt] 30/11/2016 13:53

just in time for the 2016 sharepick results - been heavily under water most of the year :(

[nerdofsteel] 28/11/2016 17:06

Nice long awaited uplift on AIM shares and ADR price today............after many weeks of stagnation - lots of news due