Hutchmed (china) Share Discussion Threads

[aim999] 01/6/2016 22:41

Creeping back up... Even on US listing

[nerdofsteel] 21/5/2016 14:00

Also to add, the Mitsui situation had a major impact on skewing negatively the EPS numbers, which will now be corrected from FY16 onwards

[nerdofsteel] 21/5/2016 13:58

I agree the heavily discounted NASDAQ IPO was not good and Shareholders at the AGM made that point to the Board.

As an Investor who bought a large amount at circa 250p and sold at circa 450p I am now heavily invested again, with a 12 year timeframe.

I am particularly interested in the drug pipeline, especially the unpartnered drugs such as Sulfatinib, which alone has a peak sales forecast of $750m and HMPL523 at $1.5bn

Currently the Company's market capitalization values the Innovation part of the business at Zero, which makes no sense.

[steeplejack] 18/5/2016 11:55

Well,rather than calculate the PE multiple which is scarily high until it falls to around 12 in 2019,we would do best to concentrate on the PEG which is a respectable 1.This got heavily pumped ahead of the NASDAQ listing.We better not leave the EU because if sterling did plummet,we'd probably see a price in the UK down in the low teens.Afterall,this company isn't going to get taken over.This is a good operation with good prospects but it got lifted with the biotech bubble ,the highs of which the management only narrowly missed with the much heralded listing.Then they had their placing,which truly stuffed UK holders,when it was rolled out at a substantial discount.I sold some stock here the other day partially out of irritation at having been suckered.

[reptile3] 18/5/2016 11:05

I came across this and thought it interesting. Apologies if you are all aware of it.
Consensus EPS forecast for HCM:

Fiscal year end Dec. 2016 $0.16 (no. of estimates 1)
" " " 2017 $0.18 ( " " 2)
" " " 2018 $0.53 ( " " 1)
" " " 2019 $1.12 ( " " 1)

link....

[thomasthetank1] 16/5/2016 12:56

Read Beaufort Securities's note on HUTCHISON CHINA MEDITECH LTD (HCM), out this morning, by visiting hxxps://www.research-tree.com/company/KYG4672N1016

"Chi-Med is making good progress with its FRESCO trial of fruquintinib, in line with their schedule. The Phase III FRESCO trial was following a 71-patient, randomised, double-blind Phase II trial of fruquintinib as a third-line (patients who have failed at least two prior systemic antineoplastic therapies, including fluoropyrimidine, oxaliplatin and irinotecan) treatment for metastatic CRC. The first patient was dosed on 12 December 2014. The study met its primary endpoint of progression free survival of 4.73 months for patients receiving fruquintinib (0.99 month for the placebo), with a hazard ratio of 0.30 (p < 0.001), and had no unexpected safety issues. We are encouraged by the progress made on FRESCO which is has large addressable market, as well as two ongoing studies of fruquintinib for non-small cell lung cancer and gastric cancer in the line. Colorectal cancer in 2012, stood at 10.3% (or 390,000 new patients diagnosed) of the total cancer in China, according to the Chinese Cancer Registry annual report 2012. The Group expect to publish Phase III top-line results at the end of 2016 or in early 2017..."

[steeplejack] 02/5/2016 16:03

Unfortunately,the I.Chronicle are simply reiterating a rather unsuccessful timed earlier buy recommendation.The price in the USA has now lost touch with the placing price,down to $12-80 offered and it's difficult to see what is going to break the trend.

The company and brokers were right to get the issue away when they could.The message was simple,$13-50 is as good as it gets.Should have sold these earlier but will hold for now and see if it turns.My gut feeling is that these could halve from the high which suggests perhaps £14.If so,the worst is behind us!Trouble is,when you've been caught in a manufactured bubble ahead of the placing,you begin to question why the hell the the shares went up so much in the first place and that assists the disaffection.

[nerdofsteel] 29/4/2016 16:05

excellent thankyou steeple, I will go to Smiths to have a read and spend the money I save on more HCM shares - continuing to stake build after stupidly selling at 450p

[steeplejack] 29/4/2016 07:44

Write up in today's Investors Chronicle AIM market company section.Recommendation is buy.

[nerdofsteel] 28/4/2016 14:18

I suspect the Company's view is that £17 and even £27 will be a distant memory in 3, 4 or 5 years time anyway. short term pain but it won't make much difference in a few years. I suspect the alternative was that they pulled the IPO altogether which could have resulted in them having to partner Sulfatinib or delay the NDA for Savolitnib. IMO

[nhb001] 28/4/2016 11:09

Someone should write to the company execs and remind them there are people out there suffering from their miscalculations.

[steeplejack] 28/4/2016 09:38

The ADS issue was done when xrate was £-$1-39.With the issue at $13-50 (ADS one half of ord) this gave sterling equivalent of £19-42.However,with the remain camp ahead in the polls,sterling is strengthening and at $1-46 the sterling quote has dropped by a pound to around £18.50 plus we have disinterest/small selling in the AIM market that has pushed us down a near another pound to the mid 1700s.All in all,this is a short term disaster.The stock is a third off its top in sterling terms.Oh it might all come right in the end but for now one could be forgiven for being very irritated with the defined intention to put NASDAQ and its funding opportunities first.Backfired for all of us AIM holders.

[nerdofsteel] 20/4/2016 18:46

We are due news on multiple drug candidates

[nerdofsteel] 20/4/2016 18:41

yes, interesting situation which surely must address itself at some point

Clearly the U.S. Investment Community still do not get this Company and just how big the prospects are, not just with partnered drugs but with the wholly owned ones.

HMPL-004 for example could be worth billions in peak sales if the next trials are successful (unlike the last one) and it eventually comes to market

We need independent or paid for Analysis ASAP. The longer it sticks at this low price the faster it could rise IMO

[steeplejack] 20/4/2016 14:54

Something of an arbitrage opportunity opening up here.With HCM offered in London at £18-20 that's the equivalent to buying in the US at $12-63 at current exchange rates,a discount of over 5% to the current offer price of $13-40 in New York.

[nerdofsteel] 18/4/2016 17:33

I was also here very early on at circa 250p but sold my entire holding at around 450p (not a good decision) and have bought in again for a very long term investment (10 years minimum).

The drug pipeline is becoming very valuable and if we get 2 or 3 candidates through approvals in the next 2 - 3 years we could become a $10bn or even $20bn Company IMO

[cisk] 18/4/2016 15:52

SJ I agree they probably have. I've been in this for ages since the £1-odd days, bought and sold many times since but always retained a holding.

I think the prospects are better than any time in the company's history, yes the price achieved was disappointing but has always been a company to tuck away and wait for it to be a $5bn + company.

Inevitably there will be disappointments along the way, it's unrealistic to expect the entire portfolio to come to market.

Ignore the volatility (apart from buying a few more on dips) and await the time when the market realises the full potential. Remember the shares are still somewhat illiquid - I think Hutchison still own around 60%?

[steeplejack] 18/4/2016 15:32

If the company had been 6 months earlier with the placing,then it could well have been done at around the £25 equivalent mark but the biotech sector took a turn for the worse and investor appetite can be fickle.The company was almost certainly advised by its brokers that,as things stood,the best placing price was $13-50 and with no indication that the biotech sector was immediately going to be back in fashion,HCM may as well get the placing done at an admittedly disappointing discount.Yet,in fairness to HCM,in the context of the sharp price gains of the last few years,a placing at around £20 equivalent is hardly a disaster and I don't suppose the company will see it as that.

The U.K. shareholders were compromised by the sizeable US placing discount but that's life.It doesn't meaningfully change the company's prospects and it establishes a NASDAQ listing as a format for equity placings in the future.A good product stream is the key.The yanks have probably got a bargain!

[nerdofsteel] 18/4/2016 15:02

interesting thankyou steeplejack, I need to get my questions ready for the AGM next week and the NASDAQ IPO is at the top of my list. Surely the Company must be disappointed by the reception so far.

Some updated research will be a help, the current Edison paper is way out of date ;o-)

[steeplejack] 18/4/2016 13:27

Ah but that would be something fundamental coming into play.The pure chartist simply interprets what the chart is telling him,he isn't required to look at the fundamentals.As things stand,the chart is bearish.Personally,I'm not that keen on charts but some are strongly influenced by them and it's probably wise to keep abreast of technical signals for no other reason than that.There's an inflection point here.If the stock can break through the placing price and sustain the recovery,it's likely the chart will turn positive.However,we know that the over-allotment was not fully taken up,it was exercised by something over 50% and that would suggest that US demand has been pretty fully satisfied short term.This placing has made long term holders of us all for now.The company has exercised its own little pump and dump here.

[nerdofsteel] 18/4/2016 11:12

Do technical mean much when we are so illiquid? I mean, what would happen if the Company suddenly announced the sale of say Sulfatinib for $1bn or that they have just applied for NDA via Breakthrough Therapy designation?

[bamboo2] 17/4/2016 22:26

Bear flag forms, target 1580's.
Dominant pattern is still the H&S, target 1320's.
Neckline retested and share price failed to close above.
Death cross on the sma's.
No position.

[kevlar131] 17/4/2016 19:50

I agree the directors do own a lot and have bought adr s
So hopefully the Americans will buy into HCM and with good newsflow (drug trials etc) then our share price will improve.
I cant really complain as its a 3 bagger for me even at this price but was just disappointed with the drop £27 to £18 being so big

[nerdofsteel] 17/4/2016 18:26

CEO - April 2014 - "We believe that the next 3, 4, 5 years are going to be transformational for us as a Company and that we will emerge as a truly global scale Biophamraceutical Company based in China"

link to NASDAQ interview is on Company website

I too feel the same Kevlar, however seeing as Directors are well invested I suspect they are a bit disappointed with the NASDAQ listing so far, but would counter that by saying this is a long term investment

Mr Hogg also states in the interview that they are trying to get US Analysts and BioPharma funds to fully appreciate what the company has here, which is significant.

He also says "We believe that the next 3, 4, 5 years are going to be transformational for us as a Company and that we will emerge as a truly global scale Biophamraceutical Company based in China" and "We want to do less partnerships in future, we want to retain the rights to our innovations"

The next 2 or 3 years is going to be extremely interesting to say the least IMO

[kevlar131] 14/4/2016 18:48

Why do I still feel like I've been shafted a bit