Hurricane Energy Share Discussion Threads

[bloodhound] 29/3/2017 12:02

Fair comment Tournesol. We have been taking it one step at a time though. Lincoln; success, Halifax huge success, Lancaster "Should be a fantastic producer" Halifax / Lancaster one giant field which extrapolating Dr T's Lancaster comment should make it "A fantastic producer"

For sure you never really know (how can you) but the runes are looking good.

BH

[pauliewonder] 29/3/2017 11:58

Bit of momentum this morning, time for another leg up.

[cinques] 29/3/2017 11:56

Testing yesterday morning's resistance at 59p

[chickenrun1] 29/3/2017 11:53

Bid for HUR ?

A larger north sea co is going to take these out for sure now they have all that oil is the smart thinking.

Might come soon.

[thegreatgeraldo] 29/3/2017 11:46

Worth mentioning on the CPR front, that the EPS is "only" targetting around 60mmbbls

[gregpeck7] 29/3/2017 11:42

CA finished selling

[ngms27] 29/3/2017 11:41

tournesol, I think we are talking contingent barrels hence 2C and 3C recoverable barrels.

I'd think it difficult for a CPR to have 2P at this point though may elude to barrels moving to 2P following FID and fund raising.

Given the deepened OWC since the 2013 CPR which suggested 200m barrels 2C with OWC at 1597m, HUR calculated 333m barrels 2C with an OWC at 1620m using the same parameters.

They now put the OWC at 1678m. So it's not difficult to see the new CPR suggesting 400m 2C.

Now if they do agree with Hurricane around the recovery factor following the additional wells then my 500m 2C is firmly in play.

[che7win] 29/3/2017 11:27

Market turned now weak holders out, should move up to 60p quickly.

[rayrac] 29/3/2017 11:22

Yes lazer and what with? Peanuts?

[pounddreamer] 29/3/2017 11:20

I have been scratching my head since Monday and still scratching it now.
I suppose from a technical perspective the Hal well was a duster but the company claimed a success with compelling evidence. If this was a run of the mill drill by a major would they have stuck with it given the same circumstances? How often does this happen? This has given the analysts, etc a problem as they do not have the customary full data set to work with (no real oil data and flow rates, etc) so they are not sure on how to respond and so far we have seen status quo. If memory serves the CoS of the Hal well was given at 30%. I guess when they re-visit it will be 99% but when this will be is currently unknown. Absolute 100% is not available and therefore analysts calculations will need to take this into account in some way. The CPR will help a lot. For me its a "no brainer".
We have over 1bill barrels and likely 3to4 billion. In time this value will be realised.
I expect a gradual rise until the CPR.
Also the RNS confirmed additional CPR for Lincoln and Halifax towards end of 2017.

[laserdisc] 29/3/2017 11:13

possibly looking at whirlwind for the next drilling campaign (when it happens) as its connected to Lancaster ? or should I say likely to be charged from the same source

[gisjob2] 29/3/2017 10:59

Tournesol, HUR have been clear when talking about Lancaster, Lincoln etc and have always talk of recoverable barrels, anything else doesn't matter. Based initially on 19% recoverable on Lancaster but now expected to be nearer 29% recoverable, hence the upgrade in barrel numbers.

The only figures that matter are the ones from HUR management !

[kandymans1] 29/3/2017 10:55

So CA think 1.5 billion. This includes whirlwind. Why include this and what barrels does whirlwind hold and when did we drill.? Sorry as not that long holding and forgot whirlwind. Strange he mentioned whirlwind and not lincoln warrick. Now the 1.5 billion surely go up to 2.5 billion if lincoln warrick linked. Anyway im rambling. GlK

[jacks13] 29/3/2017 10:54

That's true Bloodhound, and maybe they will exercise the warrants. But they do have three years to exercise and a takeover would deliver them the payout anyway so I can't see them exercising just yet, and perhaps never. It's a handy little stash for them to have; off the radar. If they were to have a lean year they could exercise, sell and add a bit of profit to the fund.

[tournesol] 29/3/2017 10:46

There is an important point being overlooked in much of the discussion.

The next operational step is an EPS which is primarily aimed at proof of concept - ie validating the ability to produce, the rate of production and the rate of decline.

Only when the EPS has achieved success can the overall project be regarded as proven beyond reasonable doubt.

So any third party which farms in before then is not going to treat the total potential of the whole asset portfolio or individual assets as being a cast iron certainty. There will remain a perception of very significant risk. That will tilt the balance of power in the negotiations towards the farminee and away from Hur. Of course there might be a competition amongst rival farminees which will help to redress the balance, but that is an unknown right now.

Bottom line - it strikes me as much too premature to be focussed on the ultimate potential - the critical thing is the next few steps. Let's walk before we start running.

Also it seems to me that people are throwing out figures in a rather inconsistent manner. Are we talking OOIP or oil that is producible? Are we talking resources or reserves? 1P, 2P, 3P

[buffythebuffoon] 29/3/2017 10:46

Sorry Kandymans, just saw your post!

Buffy

[bloodhound] 29/3/2017 10:40

"Regardless, we do know from their rnss that CA have reduced from a high of 180,560,255 in early December to a latest reported figure of 156,149,010 shares in late January."

Jacks13 - Don't forget CA have 23m option shares (at 20p per share) add 23m to 156m and what do you get 180m back to their original holding.

BH

[ngms27] 29/3/2017 10:37

km,

Lincoln / Warwick is likely to be a similar size to Lancaster / Halifax IMHO give or take a few hundred million barrels (Wow that slipped off the tongue far too easily!)

I'm certain the Lancaster CPR wont increase the recovery factor from 19% to 30% though I do expect a modest increase. Which is why I think < 500m yet CA think 600m.

We shall soon know :)

[ileeman] 29/3/2017 10:34

Added another 10k. Probably over exposed here but a gift at these prices.

[ileeman] 29/3/2017 10:33

Richard Bernstein‏ @CrystalAmberRB1 32m32 minutes ago
More
We believe Lancaster could be 600m barrels recoverable oil.
Together with Halifax and Whirlwind, that could take the figure to 1.4 billion.

[kandymans1] 29/3/2017 10:28

NgmsLets not forget lincoln warrick. AS said in podcast i believe that due to lower water level on lincoln drill than previous thought, RF changes from 19 percent to 30 percent resulting in lincoln recoverable barrels increasing significantly. These will increase further due to lincoln and warrick being one field also. These figures will come in next CPR also. Know you already know this. Feel free if im incorrect with my thoughts Km