Hurricane Energy Share Discussion Threads

[cashandcard] 29/3/2017 10:14

CA, potentially 1.4billion recoverable acoss GLA!

That's more than Buzzard and at the top end of Johan Sverdrup recoverable reserve numbers (approx 1.5bln). Interestingly, Johan Sverdrup oil in place is 3bln albeit in a different reservoir.


Cash

[ngms27] 29/3/2017 10:13

I believe CA are out for several reasons:

1) I don't believe Lancaster will be 600m, personally I'm going for 500m max if the CPR increases the recovery factor a little

2) My rough calculation based on units of area of the ridge is that a combined Lancaster / Halifax will be approximately 3 times the size of Lancaster with a common OWC

3) The OWC is tilted and currently averages a further 150m plus of ODT over the ridge at the widest part of the ridge. This must add another 500m barrels.

Therefore when we finally get the Halifax CPR in H2 I'm going for 1.5b plus 500m i.e. 2 billion barrels.

However the CPR on Lancaster may adjust my thoughts materially either way, the recovery factor will be the biggest issue.

[rayrac] 29/3/2017 10:08

A mystery! Been better in mtr.

[mrwaite] 29/3/2017 10:05

CA estimate "We believe Lancaster could be 600m barrels recoverable oil.
Together with Halifax and Whirlwind, that could take the figure to 1.4 billion."

[cashandcard] 29/3/2017 09:57

ngms27,


CPR's are used by companies with an eye to valuation metrics if they are considering corporate activity. But yes, more important for funders.


Cash

[davidblack] 29/3/2017 09:56

Getting a friendly seat at the table by buying into the project is the lower risk alternative.

A hostile bid for HUR runs the risk that you get nothing after being outbid.

[rayrac] 29/3/2017 09:53

Quite honestly, I can't see a partner buying in at HUR...just a straight buyout or a big cash raise by HUR. Take your pick. Bwdik

[jacks13] 29/3/2017 09:52

What I am suggesting that is that the word 'fund' implies a plurality of investments and therefore there will be rules governing the maximum proportions that can be held in a fund. Whether CA have been selling for that sort of reason I don't know with certainty but I've been one of those who has said as much in earlier postings.
It seems a compelling reason to me but I would have to try to dig out CA's rules and any regulatory rules that apply and I'm not that enthused to make the effort. Regardless, we do know from their rnss that CA have reduced from a high of 180,560,255 in early December to a latest reported figure of 156,149,010 shares in late January. We've heard of no further reported sales but that might be because they have not been required to be reported.

[mrwaite] 29/3/2017 09:47

Farmscan. Nobody outside will see the CPR until it is released. Any potential farm in partner at this stage won't be willing to finalise a deal until they have analysed the raw data themselves anyway. Imo that will be well after the CPR, but not solely reliant on it.

[leeson31] 29/3/2017 09:46

chestnuts: agree, they did a placing at ~15p when the share price was 10p ! also, diff reason for placing/cash raise this time ie not explo but development/partnering.. wouldnt be surprised at all if a placing was at a premium, and HUR are in a very strong position; on a personal note, id like to see lock-ins on any participants, at least 18 months...

imo, they only need to raise ~£100m, because out of the ~£340 needed, the rest will come in from the major..... for a stake in the asset. i actually think HUR could get the like sof BP. to put in all capex, AND pay HUR cash, in return for a % stake...

if GLA has say ~3billion barrels on 2C resource, valued at ~$2/b, then why not HUR sell half for $3b cash, then go halves on GLA ie 50/50 on capex, when HUR would have ~$3b cash but 50pc on the asset remaining, and partnered with Bp !??!

[davidblack] 29/3/2017 09:43

The very heavy volume of the last two days is easing. My call is once the last of the short term and forced sellers are gone we should start to see the stock move up gently as there is fairly relentless steady buying on the bid to match those sales. My guess is at close we will be up a penny or more.

CA shiould then then announce and hopefully they will be down to around 10%?

[farmscan] 29/3/2017 09:41

Jacks. If that is the case, would you not think that a potential partner would already have some insight into to content of the CPR? I'm not sure how these things work, is the info 'tight' until it is officially released?

[ngms27] 29/3/2017 09:39

A potential partner wont take any notice of the CPR, they will analyze the raw data themselves.

CPRs are aimed at Finance Houses and PI's for share price support rather than their own industry.

[gary38] 29/3/2017 09:39

2 days left for CPR release hopefully it will be great news to end Q1.Hats of to Doc and team for their hard work .

[jacks13] 29/3/2017 09:37

As I see it Farmscan, the CPR has the potential to unlock any corporate action that is being held in abeyance. A potential partner might be insisting on seeing the report before signing on the dotted line.

[chestnuts] 29/3/2017 09:36

If there is going to be a placing it could be at a higher price than the current sp, as HUR as some thing quite amazing.

[gary38] 29/3/2017 09:34

Potential short term target at the upper trend line of 80p on the daily chart .Malcy mentions CPR in with couple weeks which l think he made a mistake and time will show that he is not as well informed as some think.

[fatnacker] 29/3/2017 09:34

jacks not sure how you come by that conclusion, by value yes but the mandate doesn't dictate their top prospect is sold down simply to reduce its value, that would be ludicrous.

[farmscan] 29/3/2017 09:30

Is the general feeling that the CPR, as and when it is released, is going to have a dramatic effect on the SP?
My concern is that whilst it will, to a degree, 'firm up' Lancaster, it's not new news. I felt that the big news was going to be the Halifax result, but it seems that the share price will soon be knocked back to c54-55p.

[fatnacker] 29/3/2017 09:29

second best chart I've seen in a long while, I'll double up if we see 54.5p.

[jacks13] 29/3/2017 09:28

Taking that line to its logical conclusion fatnacker, someone investing in one of CA's funds could find themselves invested in just one company. I bet that would come as a bit of a surprise to them.

[ngms27] 29/3/2017 09:26

Malcy said in the next two weeks after speaking to the good Doctor. I'd put money on him being correct.

[garymegson] 29/3/2017 09:25

Tweet 1h ago.

Richard Bernstein@CrystalAmberRB1

"Our oil team is updating its resource estimate.
More shortly."

[cashandcard] 29/3/2017 09:25

jacks13,

I think when using the word imminent, I don't think Hurricane should be held in the same regard as that Tanzanian explorer (or for that matter the Irish explorer run by Jnr) Lol!


Cash

[lfdkmp] 29/3/2017 09:24

Do I hear echoes of Jay at AEX, jacks!:-)