Hml Share Discussion Threads

[igoe104] 25/7/2016 16:03

I topped up today, a small amount from divi payments. via my isa and sip account, £663 worth at 33.4p. fill your boots gents whilst they are cheap as chips.

[shanklin] 12/7/2016 12:38

Lots of trades going through at 33p. Currently possible to buy at that level.

[rp19] 02/7/2016 00:26

Thanks for that. I agree, plenty of scope for exceeding forecasts. I previously used Morningstar to obtain broker forecasts but this free service no longer appears to be available.

[buffetteer] 01/7/2016 22:13

Finncap 3.4p - that's prudent and will be beaten IMHO. There have been some one - off costs last year that shouldn't be repeated . There are lots of acquisition opportunities too which should add to the earnings in due course. As regulation comes into force many small agencies can't /won't afford the extra costs required so look to sell . There lies the opportunity.

[rp19] 01/7/2016 20:59

Does anyone have broker forecasts that they would be willing to share?

[rivaldo] 28/6/2016 11:06

Cheers davidosh, that's useful info.

Finncap have a 45p target here:

[davidosh] 28/6/2016 09:54

Revenue growth is really gaining momentum now. Note the two large acquisitions which brought in 3000 properties were in the second half of the year just ended so add little to the top line but do add to year end props under management. They also bought another three companies since the year end so must be at about 64,000 by now and with new builds coming in from that new team on top. They should reach 70,000 this year but we need to know how these economies of scale can really deliver for shareholders.

I am expecting revenue to hit £20.5m and possibly £21m this year with that big growth in acquisition activity late in the year and very early in this financial year. So based on their own valuation method the target share price should be at least 60p per share if using the 1.25x revenues model to value the group as a whole with a bit on top for doing all the work having put the group together. Then a bit more for the economies which should now begin to come through after all the investment in systems and people.

[mcfly79] 28/6/2016 07:59

Thanks rivaldo,Nicely ahead of expectations as you say.

[shanklin] 28/6/2016 07:22

Agreed, all looks fine at HMLH. Suspect they need to correct the dividend dates provided at the foot of the RNS.

[rivaldo] 28/6/2016 07:12

Results out - looks to me like the adjusted EPS is nicely ahead of expectations (though as usual HMLH have left us to work it out for ourselves).

HMLH made 3.76p adjusted EPS if you add back the £390k amortisation and £22k share-based expenses. This compares to the 3.3p forecast.

The 0.33p dividend is a full 10% ahead of the 0.3p forecast.

Confident comments about growing organically and via acquisition, though no specific outlook comments.

Pretty good then overall at first glance.

[mcfly79] 09/6/2016 13:46

Thanks for the posts Graham1TY,Do you know if the company looks at many potential acquisition targets that are more sizeable than the recent acquisitions?When I spoke to Robert Plumb some time ago he suggested that Barclay's were keen to lend to HMLH and imo it makes sense to debt finance a large acquisition if the price was right.You'd think that the company should be able to borrow at least £3m (perhaps substantially more) at a fairly low rate. A long term revolving facility may best meet the company's needs and allow flexibility on negotiations.A company I track called Adept Telecom negotiated a £15m revolving facilty last year and used a large chunk to fund a sizeable acquisition. The share price has done very well since the acquisition was announced. Adept are about 4 times the market cap of HMLH and are in a completely different sector but have some similarities in that they convert almost all of their earnings into cash and had been using that cash to fund smaller acquisitions.Adept pay 2.3% above libor for drawn funds on the facility and 0.9% for the undrawn element. Very cheap money!

[rivaldo] 08/6/2016 09:25

Three small buys totalling £7k have sent the price up another 1p.

Looking strong now in the run-up to the results later this month

[stemis] 07/6/2016 17:42

I think it's worth bearing in mind that some of the intangible amortisation is of software which is an ongoing expense of the business. I don't think it would be appropriate to add that back.

[shanklin] 07/6/2016 13:42

I guess it has the benefit of suppressing the share price!!

[briangeeee] 07/6/2016 13:17

Personally, am quite happy with how the numbers are reported currently.

[rivaldo] 07/6/2016 12:07

Looking forward to your report Graham1TY - I second Shanklin's request that they display the adjusted EPS prominently, if only as an easy comparison tool against market forecasts.

Good to see just a 4k buy causing another tick up today.

[shanklin] 07/6/2016 06:54

Hello Graham1TY

Interesting post, thank you.

When you see HMLH, please could you suggest to them that they provide adjusted PBT and EPS numbers. I am all for prudence but HMLH's current approach to these numbers significantly understates the profitability being achieved. All IMHO.

Cheers, Martin

[adamb1978] 05/6/2016 22:44

Bought into these for the first time last week. Good to see some knowledgeable poster here too

[buffetteer] 03/6/2016 13:10

personally id rather they acquire because they will be a much larger more valuable enterprise than if they didn't .I don't want divis from a tiny company who can grow at 10-15% per annum .I think the reason the margin hasn't grown is because of the upfront investment in efficiency

[cockerhoop] 03/6/2016 11:06

If they manage to improve margins to 15% then everybody's happy and the cost of acquisitions is justified and my comments irrelevant but I imagine even the most bullish doesn't see that happening short term.

My (perhaps limited) understanding of the acquired companies are that often they're struggling under the weight of increased regulation and are willing sellers - so why the need to pay higher multiples than HMLH's own?

You say it doesn't matter but if they paid less they could expand more quickly with further acquisitions, up the dividend or invest in efficiency measures eg. systems upgrade etc