Hml Share Discussion Threads

[shanklin] 18/5/2016 09:08

Mmm, have added a few HMLH. Might have saved a few pennies by buying them before writing to the CFO not afterwards.

[shanklin] 18/5/2016 08:49

rivaldo

As per your suggestion I have just used the HMLH's web-site "Contact Us" facility to make that very proposal.

Cheers, Martin

[rivaldo] 18/5/2016 08:32

Indeed GrahamITY - hopefully the tick up means any overhang has cleared, since we now know the results will be good.

As you imply, more acquisitions are also likely.

Shanklin, why not quickly email the company (preferably the FD) and suggest they highlight the adjusted EPS - it's worked for me before with other companies.

[shanklin] 18/5/2016 07:48

Yes, a very decent underlying business here.

It is a real shame HMLH do not provide an adjusted EPS number when reporting results.

[graham1ty] 18/5/2016 07:32

Rivaldo, that is the fourth acquisition since the Finals last June ( one had no RNS). Units managed are up from 51,000 to today's 60,000. Forecasts are for revenue growth of 7%, yet that looks more like 15% to me. I hope that the "fear" that has been hanging over the share price now lifts and that they have got something up their sleeve for the Finals this year

[rivaldo] 18/5/2016 07:29

Excellent - (1) the year end update confirms trading is in line with 3.3p EPS (and 0.3p dividend) expectations, and (2) another small earnings-enhancing acquisition:



Looks like the market got this one wrong. Back to 40p-45p pronto hopefully.

[b3842517] 08/4/2016 15:08

Topped up this afternoon. I never seem to time these things well, so expect a further fall imminently!

[igoe104] 06/4/2016 14:49

Can`t understand it myself, this looks a safe investment, from where I`m looking.

Maybe a lack of news and investor boredom are bringing this down.

[blueliner] 06/4/2016 10:15

Well this fall has crept up on me, almost going down like a risky mining stock.
Well underwater now.

[chinahere] 05/3/2016 10:54

Anyone got a reason not to buy more?

[igoe104] 29/2/2016 16:04

General market sentiment, if a company isn`t announcing anything positive, stocks seems to be sliding.

There certainly a lack of patience in the market from PIs at the moment.

They seem to be more and more trader type investors at the moment, like market sniper, who show up after a good announcement who ramp for a few days then disappear.

[rivaldo] 29/2/2016 15:22

HMLH holding at these levels, but still on a single-figure P/E.

Anyone any thoughts on why the share price has slipped? I'd have thought the housing market would be pretty busy in advance of the stamp duty increases coming in (on 1st April from memory?).

[rivaldo] 25/1/2016 09:12

Looks like I topped up a little early :o((

Must be a bargain at these levels? The only comfort is that volumes are absolutely tiny, so hopefully these are just typical movements of an illiquid stock affected by a few small transactions.

[fozzie] 14/1/2016 15:07

And getting cheaper by the day. This has just fallen off a cliff ffs

[shanklin] 05/1/2016 11:02

fozzie,

The share price may be unchanged but it is presumably somewhat cheaper now on a valuation basis.

[fozzie] 05/1/2016 10:58

Well a near 2 year hold for me and I'm virtually back where I started with this one.

[rivaldo] 05/1/2016 10:56

Picked up a few more on the dip at 36.8p.

Hopefully HMLH will bounce back to 42p-43p short/medium-term, whilst I can't see much if any downside.

[graham1ty] 16/12/2015 10:00

Another good add on acquisition. With Castle Wildish that adds almost £1m of revenue which is about 6%. With organic growth, that brings an easy 10% of topline growth.

[rp19] 26/11/2015 20:09

Thanks for the info Rivaldo. Based on your figures, a P/E of around 10 for next year seems pretty undemanding.

[rivaldo] 26/11/2015 13:37

For the record, I note that Finncap's forecasts have been slightly reduced post-interims. They're now 3.3p EPS this year and 3.5p EPS, with 0.3 and 0.4p dividends respectively.

Given 1.7p adjusted EPS by my calculations (on fully diluted shares in issue) in H1, I'd have thought there's a good chance HMLH will meet or exceed expectations.

[rivaldo] 16/11/2015 14:15

Agreed Shanklin - when the forecasts in the market are based on adjusted EPS why on earth do HMLH undersell themselves and report only the basic EPS?

HMLH made 1.7p EPS in H1 after adjusting for amortisation and share-based payments (as per the usual basis of calculation) and based on fully diluted shares. Full year forecasts of 3.6p EPS should therefore be achievable.

However, H1 was indeed a curate's egg as SteMis says. The lower sales volumes leading up to the election will have increased as most others in the sector have reported (I think) and as HMLH themselves say today, and the restructuring costs are now finished.

So hopefully HMLH will resume its slow and steady upwards progress. Does anyone know if there are comparable listed businesses, and if so are they on similar or higher P/E's?

[shanklin] 16/11/2015 10:11

They should also provide adjusted P/L and adjusted EPS, as per almost every other listed company, albeit one can calculate them.

[stemis] 16/11/2015 10:08

The results are something of a curate's egg. It would have been helpful to quantify the restructuring costs. Current full year forecast seems to be - EBIT £1.7m (H1 £815k). Might just squeak it, but I doubt there'll be any upgrades.