Hml Share Discussion Threads

[graham1ty] 29/3/2017 09:05

Rivaldo, forecasts raised to 4.3p and target price to 48p. All pretty conservative. During the period 2010-2015 HML were very good at slowly increasing forecasts during the course of the year, and then beating them. The extra costs in 2015-16 reversed that and they became serial disappointers !! Let us hope that reverses and 4.3p is just the start of the upgrades. I will send you the latest note by email

[rivaldo] 29/3/2017 08:39

The market is evidently highly impressed :o))

Forecasts for the year about to start are already 4p EPS. With that number not having been adjusted yet for the two previous acquisitions either, I'd imagine EPS forecasts will rise to at least 4.5p+.

I suppose Finncap may wait until the 31/3 year end trading update to change those forecasts.

[rivaldo] 29/3/2017 07:18

RNS - we have the next acquisition. It's a biggie as predicted, with £2.3m paid for £0.4m PBT and immediately earnings-enhancing. London-based too - looks a good one to me:



I imagine forecasts will have to be raised now.

[mw8156] 08/3/2017 10:05

problem is with small cos like HML that managers and employees are all incentivised with share options well below the market price so other holders are routinely diluted all the time...

[cockerhoop] 08/3/2017 08:40

In the last 10 years the company has spent approx £14m on acquisitions. In 2007 the mrk cap was circa £4m, it's now £18m and the shares in issue have multiplied 3.5 times. I just don't see where the long term added value has been created.

[stemis] 02/3/2017 13:58

It is expected that G&CPCL will be earnings enhancing once it has been fully integrated into HML.

If that means it'll generate more profit than the interest on £1m it's not exactly saying a lot...

To fund these acquisitions HMLH issued shares at 37p a share. Prior to that HMLH was generating earnings of 4.1p per share. To avoid dilution then this acquisition (and the previous one, taken together) will need to produce earnings on £1.317m of £146,000 or £199,000 if the 'retention' payments of £0.48m are paid (or more if 'pipeline management instructions valued at £0.4 million' do 'enhance the purchase price').

That's a post tax margin of 11.1% compared to the current 7.8%. So we should be seeing margin enhancement as well as bottom line growth.

[rivaldo] 02/3/2017 11:41

Finncap have left their forecasts unchanged, along with their 45p target price.

They've done this for both the recent acquisitions. Either there could well be a nice earnings-beating surprise next time, or Finncap will wait for the next and third acquisition to complete before increasing their forecasts and target price.

[rivaldo] 02/3/2017 07:06

Another acquisition today - this time for £1m in cash. Earnings-enhancing once integrated, and still more acquisition news likely soon if the third of the three mooted acquisitions comes through:

[b3842517] 02/2/2017 08:55

Bit underwhelmed by this. Small, and only earnings enhancing once fully integrated into the group. Let's hope the other 2 forthcoming acquisitions are a little more exciting.

[rivaldo] 02/2/2017 08:53

Finncap today point out that this is just the first of three potential acquisitions referred to in the December statement.

Their forecasts are unchanged at 3.8p EPS for the year ending next month, and 4p EPS for the coming year, with 0.4p dividends in each year.

[rivaldo] 02/2/2017 07:08

Good to see another earnings-enhancing acquisition today - small, but they all count in bulking up the business and there are likely to be decent synergies in terms of admin cost-cutting:

[chinahere] 25/1/2017 09:30

Moving up nicely. Will be good to hear more about the acquisitions.

[graham1ty] 12/1/2017 08:09

Rivaldo, after hours reported 25,000 at 41.25p. Hope this can now break free from 40p

[rivaldo] 11/1/2017 15:15

Indeed. Great to see the bid up to 40p now. Not a single trade today AFAICS, so presumably there's background demand for shares?

[igoe104] 11/1/2017 09:11

I expect more of a rise too come, as the expected acquisitions start being individually announced.

[rivaldo] 09/1/2017 13:29

Five small buy trades today have widened the published spread to a ridiculous 5p.

But online you can sell at least 30,000 at a premium at 39p, whilst you can only buy a maximum 3k at 43p, so I think any buying would cause a decent move upwards.

[rivaldo] 03/1/2017 09:56

Happy New Year HMLH'ers.

Yet another 25k buy this morning, resulting in a further move up.

[rivaldo] 29/12/2016 12:19

A 25k buy at 39.7p today is the 7th 25k or just above buy in the last 4 trading days (I'm assuming the 38.5p trades were buys). Perhaps some stakebuilding going on.

[rivaldo] 22/12/2016 09:25

Another RNS, this time showing that Oryx have bought another 3m+ shares since their last holdings RNS and now have 4.26m, or 9.55%:



Looks like Oryx and the Business Growth Fund took almost the entire 5.5m placing shares between them short of 1m shares or so.

[buffetteer] 22/12/2016 07:37

I hope that if they buy bigger competitors it will lead to increased margins - the one thing that's been distinctly missing over past couple of years.

[rp19] 21/12/2016 21:46

I know of a few successful business growth fund investments which have coincided with significantly increased share prices; STY (I hold) and Victoria PLC (no position). So hopefully the bgf investment bodes well here.

[igoe104] 21/12/2016 09:28

Hopefully when the 3 possible acquisitions are bedded in these will be knocking on the door of 50p this time next year?

[rivaldo] 21/12/2016 09:22

RNS - the Business Growth Fund have increased to above 8% with 3.79m shares. They've bought over 1.5m more shares, presumably in the placing. A good show of confidence in what is still only a £15m or so m/cap company:

[rivaldo] 16/12/2016 10:37

Cheers Graham. Finncap rightly leaving their forecasts at 3.8p EPS and 4p EPS for this and next year for the moment, but we should hopefully see a decent uplift to that 4p EPS to March'18 on completion.

[graham1ty] 16/12/2016 10:09

Rivaldo, check yr email