Hellenic Carr. Share Discussion Threads

[kmann] 19/11/2012 19:14

Could be a bargain buy if from a distressed seller. Also suggests they have a contract to fullfill. More forward thinking, china probably planning more infrastructure projects.

Yupa, market cap here is equal to the cost of one ship plus good cash plus at absolute low. Will recover with world economy. Very good upside, worth the wait.

[yupawiese2010] 19/11/2012 18:22

Im expecting an RNS in about 2 - 3 weeks, confirming purchase, dont forget B2V over at the TMF announced the sale of MV Hellenic Sea,several weeks before Hellenic issued an RNS informing us of its sale.

[diku] 19/11/2012 18:01

Any news around on that rumours?....

[yupawiese2010] 16/11/2012 17:36

Poster on TMF ( B2V ) who works within the shipping sector ( does know what he is talking about) confirms rumours that Hellanic have purchased a 2003 Supramax tanker on the secondhand market.

No position but looking for an entry point within the next 9 months, with freight rates hopefully starting to firm

[hugepants] 17/10/2012 18:37

BDIY up 4% today but still down 56% from a year ago!

Motley Fool thread.

[kmann] 16/10/2012 11:27

The charts in the heading need updating, Baltic dry index now up over 40% from recent low of 660, now 940.


Should lift the whole sector.

[kmann] 09/10/2012 18:27

What would a "buy out to take hcl private" scenario play out like? I remember Globus Maritine did it and the price rose significantly,. Now on nasdq oddly

[stemis] 09/10/2012 09:47

Yes but the Karamanlis's own 70% of the shares. Why would they sell for less than the current depressed second hand value of the boats and let the buyer have the upside?

[diku] 09/10/2012 08:54

When money talks anything can be up for sale as long as the price is right....

[stemis] 09/10/2012 08:49

They can't buy HCL. It's not for sale.

[diku] 08/10/2012 18:31

Why would a competitor buy a new boat when they can just buy HCL with their 2 new boats sometime next year....

[kmann] 05/10/2012 13:42

Looks undervalued and a good recovery play, nav @120, 3 vessels + 2 on order must be worth 3 times market cap, plus decent cash position.
And a decent forward looking strategy

[diku] 04/10/2012 10:43

Notice the header BDI chart turning up since hitting lows for the second time this year...

[hugepants] 04/10/2012 09:01

Pretty good article here. Hellenic gets a few mentions and tipped as an "outsider".

Investors Chronicle 02 October 2012
Shipping not sunk yet


It's more than four years since the shipping bubble burst, heralding the industry's worst crisis in a generation. It was largely self-inflicted - a huge number of vessels were ordered during the boom times and that excess tonnage is still working its way through the system. It will take time, but experts think they have a clearer idea of when the recovery will begin and, when it does, there are few better industries to be in.

"No business generates cash like shipping when it's rolling. Currently, it's just rolling in the wrong direction," quipped one delegate at Capital Link's annual international shipping and marine services conference in London last month. That's true. A very large crude carrier (VLCC) bought for $55m (£34m) in 2002 would have been worth $222m six years later. Even after the Lehman collapse, Goldenport (GPRT) paid $10.5m for a Japanese vessel that's now worth near $20m....

[scburbs] 06/9/2012 12:41

Thanks SteMiS. I didn't realise they hadn't already funded their cash obligations for the new boats. That gives them much greater leeway to operate with negative cashflow for a few years (depending on how much they spend on the second hand boats) and significantly improves the risk/reward balance.

[stemis] 06/9/2012 12:34

The two boats cost $34.2m each; $68.4m in total. The company has debt funding of 65% of the total up to a maximum of $44.2m. This will be drawn down on delivery. HCL have already paid the deposits of $28.1m from cash, so they'll get $3.9m or so back when the boats are delivered.

If anything that will increase the current cash balance of $37.1m not decrease it.

Loan repayments for 2012 and 2013 amount to $10.3m in total.

[scburbs] 06/9/2012 12:24

HP,

I was looking at operating cashflow of $466k less interest payments of $2.797m, so negative $2.3m for H1. If the new ships are EBITDA neutral then cashflow will get worse when the new debt is taken on.

It is undoubtably a very large discount to NAV. To get the true discount to NAV you need to know whether the $68m of new ships are still worth $68m. If they have fallen in value then NAV will be overstated. Either way its likely that the discount to NAV will still be exceptionally high.

I don't think gearing can really be described as comfortably low as the business doesn't (in current market conditions) generate enough cash to service the interest. Also the business plan is set to massively increase the gearing of the business through the contracted purchases and the intention to use disposal cash for purchases rather than debt repayment.

Increasing the gearing and expanding could be a great strategy provided we are at or near the bottom.

[hugepants] 06/9/2012 11:06

With no remaining EBITDA they look like they are going heavily cash flow negative

Will they be heavily cash-flow negative? They still look underlying cash-flow positive before debt repayments. Maybe $4M cash flow negative after debt repayments for the full year?


Ive rarely seen a discount to NAV this big unless its some large real estate development project like Hirco or Dolphin which require lots of cash just to keep going. The gearing here looks comfortably low and they wouldn't be buying more boats if they thought they'd have a problem meeting debt repayments. Theres no way it would be worth the risk.

[stemis] 06/9/2012 09:01

Your right. Just did it quickly.

[hugepants] 06/9/2012 08:52

I make it 120p. I think you are using $ instead of £

[stemis] 06/9/2012 08:47

Marginally ebitda positive and net debt down. No sign of financial distress.

tNAV is now 185p a share compared to share price of 20p.