Hellenic Carr. Share Discussion Threads

[stemis] 06/6/2009 10:27

Baltic index seems to be recovering somewhat, unlike the share price here!

[lonrho] 02/6/2009 10:47

just bought some of these, with the baltic dry index on the up and globus maritime being rerated these should also recover but debt is a bit of a concern.

[stemis] 16/3/2009 08:50

Unexpected dividend for suffering shareholders!

[slapdash] 02/9/2008 10:02

strange to still have a far amount of selling here... I think it is just market conditions.... someone always looking to raise more cash.....

Slap

[ntv] 01/9/2008 15:32

interesting this one
bought a few today
hopefully they will fall back after going xd divi
admit i don't know much about the sector
so i will have to do some research
anyone any pointers?
tia

[meadow50] 01/9/2008 11:24

with the pound sliding against the dollar results are even better!

[slapdash] 01/9/2008 09:46

NTV - as measured by the BDI frieght rate have been a bit weak recently. See the GOC thread for the BDI chart. However, that shoudl be in context of being at all time highs recently too. In other words the BDI is very volatile and weakness or strength in one period shouldn't be interpreted as a strong positive or negative.

slap

[ntv] 01/9/2008 09:06

have freight rates fallen much lately?

[deadly] 01/9/2008 09:06

should be a big rise in Hellenic Sky charter rate from 23000$/day to about 70000, judging by Hellenic Breeze which was rechartered in June to this rate and is the same size and type but slightly older.

[stegrego] 01/9/2008 08:46

Glad to be holding here...

Pity no one seems to care / know about it.

[slapdash] 01/9/2008 08:42

what I like is that they are locking in forward periods so if someone says they can't keep the dividend etc well we can see that they should be able to for 2009 and 2010.... if we get a rebound in freight rates then they will lock in a further large proportion of both of these years....

Slap

[stemis] 01/9/2008 08:06

No real surprise in the results at all; slightly higher admin and management fees than I expected but immaterial in the context of the whole. Net debt of $114m roughly where I was forecasting. Increase in number of ships and higher charter rates will kick in in H2. Even so, on 2 x H1 we are on a P/E of under 5 which would equate to a yield of 10% (assuming 2 x dividend cover).

The key updates will be the recharter rate of M/V Hellenic Sky (ends 27 Nov) and that of the newly delivered M/V Furness Timika (15 Nov).

[slapdash] 31/8/2008 23:23

will be interesting to see how this reacts on Monday. Very illiqued and so could jump.... we shall see.... could be price momentum building in sector given GLBS and GPRT's results...

Slap

[deadly] 29/8/2008 17:13

There would be more buyers if you could get more than 250 shares for a quote. But have bought 4000 at 222 and 230 this week using limit orders. Here's hoping for Monday.

[stemis] 29/8/2008 16:47

Yes, it looks like there are one or two buyers ahead of the results.

[slapdash] 29/8/2008 16:15

last time I looked it was on about 2.9X P/E for 2009 but if we take off say a 12% dividend for this year then that falls to about 2.5X... so I think the cheapest of the bunch really

results on Monday which should inevitably be very strong.

As it is illiqued we could have a run up... we shall see....

Slap

[slapdash] 14/7/2008 21:34

SteMis - a positive then??? should make it be viewed as something of a growth company.... I am always cautious when a cyclical company uses debt for expansion but I think here the cash flow is so strong and the rates they recieve are locked in for such a period that it shouldn't be an issue..

Slap

[stemis] 14/7/2008 09:44

As I said in my post on 23 May, they put in place facilities to buy 2 additional ships for around $75m each, so its no real surprise.

It's bought charter free so it'll be an interesting test of the market to see what they get. The other Supramax they have, M/V Konstantinos D is chartered at $64,642 / day. Assuming daily operating expenses of, say, $5,000 and availability of 350 days pa, that's a contribution of $20.9m pa, so little over 3 years payback.

[slapdash] 14/7/2008 08:56

so this ship acquisition should boost EPS going forward however one could argue they are buying near the top of hte cycle??? hmmm... any thoughts anyone

Slap

[slapdash] 13/6/2008 10:08

SteMis - are they being clever buying new ships???? Hmmmm.... maybe not... unless they wait until the BDI is off a lot...

slap

[stemis] 23/5/2008 14:13

See announcement on 25 March



Hellenic Carriers Limited ('Hellenic' or the 'Company') (AIM: HCL), an international provider of marine transportation services for dry bulk cargoes, announces that it has entered into a new loan facility with Piraeus Bank S.A. of up to US$190 million (the 'Piraeus Facility') and has accepted an offer from the National Bank of Greece (the 'NBG Offer Letter') for a loan facility of up to US$120 million.

The Piraeus Facility is to be drawn in two advances of US$110 million and US$80
million respectively ...........the second advance of up to US$80 million is designed to provide the Company with a credit facility available until 31st December 2010 to be used in the purchase of additional dry bulk vessels between 40,000 and 75,000 dwt built after 1995.

The NBG Offer Letter is for a credit line up to US$70 million, which together with the refinancing of the Company's existing debt to the National Bank of Greece will result in a loan facility up to US$120 million in total...........to provide the Company with additional credit of up to $70 million to be used to finance up to 90% of the purchase price of a single dry bulk vessel between 18,000 and 93,000 dwt built after 1994.

It looks to me like they've put facilities ($150m) in place to buy another 2 ships. Since M/V Hellenic Wind (Panamax) cost $72m that seems about right.

Current average TCE is about $49,000 which should generate an ebitda of $80-90m according to my model. Annnual dividend cost at this level is about $30m and interest $10m. With no tax and no working capital that leaves about $40-50m to pay off debt which is currently about $140m.

If they can buy a vessel for $75m and get $54,000 TCE (which is what they got for Hellenic Wind), the ebitda from the one vessel alone is $25m pa.

Under the circumstances I'd rather they paid off the debt than paid it out as a dividend.

[slapdash] 23/5/2008 12:59

stegrego - I just imagine that analysts would be fairly conservative with regard to renewal rates and so HCL would beat them as frieght rates are very strong...

the issue is also one of what do they do with the 50% of profits they don't pay out as a dividend.... I think they should pay down debt....

That is something that surprises me about the whole sector... why does a cyclical sector have such a high level of debt????

Slap

[stegrego] 23/5/2008 12:46

I guess the problem (or not depending on the way you look at it) is that earnings are very predictable until the ships get re-leased.

Basically you now know what earnings for 08 will be and half of 09.

I suppose the problem (is it?) is that its difficult to suprise on earnings.

One lease coming up this year left, i guess announced around October and then nothing till mid 09 is expected.

Very tied into the Baltic and i suppose its going to be purely down to luck as to whether the Baltic is high or low at the time each renewal comes along.

Only other way to suprise is to buy more ships, but that means more debt too and i guess that now is not a great time to be buying ships as demand and prices are so high.

If you believe that Shipping rates are going to stay high or higher for years to come then this is really bargain of the century.