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Hellenic Carr. Share Discussion Threads
Showing 626 to 649 of 650 messages
|Recommended offer of 3.5p today by the chief exec. Very generous!|
|The BDI appears to have risen from its low point - not a perfect indicator of course!
Both CKN and BMS seem to be reasonable buys for anyone interested in possible sector recovery. (I bought BMS last week.)|
|this looks as if it is finished?|
|The key if you're interested is to find something which will survive the rout, any ideas?|
|FastFT, at about 15:45 today:
Another day, another record low for the Baltic Dry Index, which tells you a lot about shipping but not much about anything else. (No, the world isn't going to end.)
The index, which tracks the price of shipping bulk commodities like coal and iron ore, is falling for the 21st straight day, writes Joel Lewin.
It has dropped below the 500 mark for the first since it started in 1985, shining a light on the relentless pain of the dry bulk shipping industry, which has been rocked by overcapacity and the slowdown in the Chinese economy.
The index used to be brandished as a proxy for global trade growth, but the problem of dry bulk overcapacity is currently severe enough to outweigh any acceleration in trade.
Chinese growth has slowed this year, with the third quarter slipping to its weakest in six years. This has sapped the key source of demand for dry bulk ships.
But while demand has ebbed, supply has continued to surge. Ships ordered several years ago, when China's economy was growing at breakneck pace, are only just coming onto the market.
Noah Parquette at JPMorgan says:
As a highly levered play on Chinese commodity demand, dry bulk has been laid bare by Beijing's shift away from an investment-led growth model. At the same time, the oversupply of ships seems to be a persistent issue. We expect 2016 could even be worse than a historically bad 2015
The industry is potentially facing another squeeze from the Brazilian mining disaster, which has led to the shut down of a large iron ore mine after a dam burst at the start of November.
Mr Parquette warns this could hurt dry bulk rates, because disrupted Brazilian exports to China could be replaced by Australian exports. The journey is much shorter, and would therefore free up extra capacity in an already heavily oversupplied market.|
|diku - yes, "another" Greek company, but I would think an honest one caught up in global forces. (Not globo forces.)
Lots of news reports (FT, Bloomberg) about new low for BDI.|
|Is this kaput?....isn't this another Greek company...|
|They don't often come back after this kind of treatment, do they?|
|Must be finished|
Thank you for that useful link. I still havnt had time to do my homework here and have not invested at yet. I see the cfo bought shares at 27p last december.
I suspect at these really low levels they would have either done an opportunistic take private or alternatively bought a large chunk of shares if there was any value here,|
|The ship value at 30 June was 9% down from 6 months earlier, and another 9% by 31/12 would take it pretty close. There are (undisclosed) covenants.
They seem to need to make principal payments on their debt so they have to keep trading, even at a loss, to generate cash. I think your scenario would only work if the business were put into liquidation and the ships realised book value.
I'd be looking for signs of pick up in world trade, but I think conditions in HCL's market have deteriorated in the second half - see para 2 here, for example:
On my reading of the accounts there should be enough there to have at least one ship debt free.
I think the only way forward is to go and meet the company before investing.|
|Yup, but "debt free" is the killer.
From what I see, debt is secured on ship value and there are probably covenants which would trigger repayment/liquidation of assets. And if voyages are unprofitable, cash will flow out and vessel values drop.
A value trap, I think here.|
|still falling. Only worth 3.6m now. Surely one of the ships debt free is worth that?|
|OK reckon a lot of homework is necessary. If I do it, I'll let you know|
|Nothing!...ships that go from A to B collecting and delivering stuff!!....they also charter out their big boats/ships!....|
I am following this. I have not invested as yet. Share price has been here before.
There is no doubt that if the market turns potential for a decent gain is good.
Do you know anything about shipping.|
|Is this kaput with high debts?....|
|Onassis springs to mind. I recall he bought up all the idle surplus carriers for a song when the world was about to end.|
|Something going on here....|
|Has the ship left the docks?...|
|Shipping is a notoriously cyclical business. At it's peak in 2008 the company was earning 40p per share (on the same shares as now and with higher net debt). The secret is to survive the down cycle and be ready for the upswing. Last year they were broadly cash neutral (excluding release of restricted cash and purchase of new vessels). At some point these will be over £1 again. Unfortunately I can't say when that'll be......|
|Debt is enormous - I don't normally touch highly-geared companies.|