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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Stock Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gulf Marine Services Plc | GMS | London | Ordinary Share |
| Price Change | Price Change % | Share Price | Last Trade
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.70 | 3.40% | 21.30 | 16:35:06 |
| Open Price | Low Price | High Price | Close Price | Previous Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21.00 | 21.00 | 21.50 | 21.30 | 20.60 |
| Industry Sector |
|---|
| AEROSPACE & DEFENCE |
| Top Posts |
|---|
Posted at 04/4/2024 10:06 by hpcg A lot of the highlights are highlighted, so everyone will have seen already. A few more buried nuggets I found of interest, with my comments in braces:* Recently approved by the Board, our residual dividend policy seeks to strike a balance between investing in the business and providing returns to shareholders. {They alluded to dividends in the last RNS. I am not a big fan, but they are required to attract a certain type of investor, and income funds.} * The Group is in the process of refinancing its term facility in advance of the bullet payment becoming due in June 2025. Management's ongoing discussions with various lending entities are aimed at securing terms that align with our long-term strategic objectives, ensuring continued financial stability. We are optimistic about the outcome of these negotiations and will keep shareholders updated as we navigate this pivotal phase in our financial planning. The Board expresses confidence in our ability to secure favourable terms that will contribute to the sustained success and growth. {We should be able to get a reduced interest rate margin from current 310 bps IMO} * The Group improved its Lost Time Injury Rate (LTIR) going from 0.1 in 2022 to zero in 2023. However, two medical treatment cases were recorded taking the Total Recordable Injury Rate (TRIR) from 0.1 in 2022 to 0.18 in 2023. These levels continue to be below industry average. {Good safety goes hand in hand with good operations, and 0 is the only acceptable number of LTIs - the treatment trend needs reversing. Safety can get compromised under tight financial conditions, a false economy. Glad to see that is not the case.} * Average day rates across the fleet increased by 10% to US$ 30.3k compared to the previous year's US$ 27.5k with improvements across all vessel classes, particularly for E-Class whereby, the day rates improved by 17% to US$ 41.4k (2022: US$ 35.4k). K-Class and S-Class rates increased by 7% and 5%, respectively. {There is below a table of revenue and operating profit per class. S-class, thankfully the smallest segment, saw profit decline marginally as rate increases did not keep up with inflation. Note that part of the thesis here is that debts are inflated away; inflation so long as rates keep up and margins are maintained enhance absolute cash available for debt repayment.} * Reported general and administrative expenses amounted to US$14.6 million, up from US$13.2 million in 2022, driven by increased staff costs and professional fees. {Basically 10% inflation, but they say there are fees around reporting commitments to lenders, and we can expect come of those to drop out, see below.} * Key benefits of being below 4:1 times is it allows GMS to meet its covenants, to pay dividends and to cut some debt monitoring fees. * The Group's capital expenditure relating to drydocking and improvements of the vessels increased to US$ 11.3 million, 2022: US$ 9.1 million. {Money is still being spent on maintaining the assets.} * Net bank debt reduced to US$ 267.3 million (2022: US$ 315.8 million). This was a result of management's commitment to accelerate deleveraging. The Group repaid US$ 56.2 million (2022: US$ 51.4 million) towards its term loan, of which, US$ 26.2 million (2022: US$ 3.8 million) were over and above its contractual obligation for 2023. A total of US$ 33.7 million (2022: US$ 3.8 million) was prepaid during 2023. {$56mn taken off debt whilst also paying $31mn in interest. That collectively is funds available to shareholders in a debt free world, minus taxes. £67mn at 1.3 exchange rate. Should be higher in 2024 as rates have firmed.} |
Posted at 11/3/2024 15:27 by hpcg catsick - r.e. 2280. I've had asset value down as a hump point for share turnover for a long time. Traditional value investors might see the discount unwind as a reason to leave. I have them slated to be replaced by income seekers with likely a modest debt free PE. This is a while off though. In the mean time any write-downs, which if I remember correctly where not very large, should be written back. |
Posted at 28/2/2024 10:04 by hpcg I have bought several times on the way up, and added another spread bet this morning. I think in the range 30-32p rather than 28-30p come the end of 2024. Rates are still in the sweet spot of decent revenues but not anywhere close to justify new building.Its going to be slower moving than we have seen, about a penny per month, and perhaps people see more explosive opportunities, but 60% over 10 months is fine by me. After 2024 results the balance sheet will look safe, and come 2025 the 5 year track record will be clean. These and dividends and or buybacks will attract a different kind of investor. |
Posted at 26/2/2024 08:12 by wigwammer The biggest mistake investors have made over the last 12 months is evidently not owning more 12 months ago. |
Posted at 10/2/2024 15:52 by hpcg From HL:1 week 6.77% 1 month 16.44% 3 months 39.92% 6 months 115.53% 1 year 275.14% 2 years 191.11% 3 years 144.37% 5 years -21.14% The biggest mistake investors have made in the last 12 months has been to sell shares rather than buy more. The biggest mistake they made 5 years ago was holding on after the (month long) recovery from 10p -> 22p stalled out. A little easter egg, a near 45 year old jack up has just completed its latest job of the UAE: |
Posted at 08/2/2024 17:53 by hpcg Very strong. Can see 'panic selling' around macro noise when bidders ease off the pressure, but ultimately investors just want to buy. |
Posted at 15/1/2024 17:52 by hpcg This is why I never use automatic stops on investment position outside of known events. I should imagine the price will rebound substantially, probably not all the way, and those stopped out will be cursing. Speed of the rebound will depend on if the company releases an RNS and what it says. As the company probably can't speculate on reasons why people choose to sell it would have to be a vanilla "know no reason", and some investors are for whatever reason reluctant to take those at face value. |
Posted at 15/12/2023 12:33 by hpcg Today Simon Thompson writes up GMS in his Small Companies column in the Investors' Chronicle. It is the bumper new year / xmas edition. The headline is the 54% discount to 2024 NAV (@ 13.2p). I think a lot of investors have clocked off, despite a full week left, so whilst there will be some action today as a result I doubt too much. The holiday issue should see more eyes. Small Caps very likely to rebound in 2024 and that ought to mean money coming back to the market. |
Posted at 29/11/2023 09:41 by hpcg Back above 13. This is how it will be, a slow and bumpy grind higher as news is sold by those cashing in gains while longer term investors grind through the supply. |
Posted at 10/11/2023 13:12 by hpcg Simon Thompson in the Investors Chronicle now has it on his coverage list - looks like he started on their premium service in the middle of September and in the magazine today. This should help liquidity though possibly at the cost of volatility. That said the market cap is probably too large for him to make a meaningful difference. The share buyers I should imagine are predominantly US contrarian, deep value and situational funds; think like Kuppy's Praetorian Capital, though not literally in his case (June 13F filing ). There have been no holding RNS for 12 months.He laid out NAV targets from Zeus Capital: 25.8p 2023, 29.1p in 2024 and 33p in 2025. I don't expect to see the NAV discount narrow too much in the next few months, but as the leverage ratio takes steps down the discount should (sensibly) close in lock step. If it doesn't then someone is going to make an offer. Any IT that has a company of this size in its remit should really be looking to deploy money here as the ratio of the certainty of profit to the magnitude of the profit is surely attractive. The slowish grind up will put off the more excitable investors. The ideal scenario is decently profitable contracts for the sector, but not any thing close to bubbly that might tempt some moron to build new. |
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