Granby Oil & Gas Share Discussion Threads

[lowersharpnose] 27/1/2008 23:30

At the investor meeting at Granby last week, reference was often made to a set of posters around the room. These posters had info on a variety of prospects on Granby's acreage. They were prepared for a prospect fair to attract farm-in partners.

flyingbull on TMF has since uploaded all of them from memory stick to mediafire...

File name: Granby Key Facts 21 Jan 2008.pdf: 0.7Mb
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File name: GOG Presentation January 2008.pdf: 2.7Mb
Download link:

File name: Tristan NW & Monkwell Gas Projects.pdf: 10.8Mb
Download link:

File name: 13_25 Fatcat.pdf: 4Mb
Download link:

File name: 16_3 Oakleighpdf: 5.6Mb
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File name: 47_18 & 23b Whalebone.pdf: 5.9Mb
Download link:

File name: 9_22 & 23 14_9a & 14b Globe Roebuck & Anglesey.pdf: 5.9Mb
Download link:

File name: 15_13b Eagle.pdf: 3.2Mb
Download link:

File name: Poland Blocks 106 & 107.pdf: 4.7Mb
Download link:

File name: GranbyAnnualReport2007.pdf: 1.6Mb
Download link:


lsn

[dreggspicker] 25/1/2008 18:47

Thanks, Aim_Trader,
Put them on favs, obviously any thing you read has to be taken with a pinch of salt, but they do seem rather good, I will be looking on that site in future; Thanks,
dreggs

[dreggspicker] 24/1/2008 20:00

Andy, that proactive site is good, never seen it before, thanks.
How impartial do you recon they are, or do you think they are paid by the firms they are talking about?
Regards, dreggs

[deswalker] 24/1/2008 16:50

Thks Rapier

[rapier686] 24/1/2008 16:45

Kerloch,
They weren't saying – though in general I'd imagine not as expected is not a good thing. Brent sequences were encountered higher than expected, but contrary to expectation the upper sands were dry. Nevertheless 116' in the Ness is a good intersection. Granby's predrill expectation of structure size was 23mmbbl.

Burton Agnes,
They didn't hit the structure high, maybe they can sidetrack off the existing well to hit the high at low cost. But it strikes me:
a) Burton Agnes wasn't a big deal in the first place; a nice to have freebie.
b) With the primary target being unsuccessful at the drill location, the P50 must have shrunk a whole lot. Although said target was lower than expected.
So I'm not really bothered if it's a complete write off or there's some small hope left.

[deswalker] 24/1/2008 16:24

A couple of quiestions if I may ...

The Kerloch geology wasn't as expected. Any indications whether or not this is a good thing ?

Burton-Agnes 1 is still a possibility. Any more info there on what's next there ?

Many thanks,

Des

[andy] 24/1/2008 10:28

Proactiveinvestors.com have written an article on GOIL, which will be of interest to holders here IMO.

[deswalker] 24/1/2008 08:03

Many thks to lsn and Rapier for the updates. Everything seems nicely on track. Fat Cat and Whalebone both look much more interesting than I currently have in my model and the NPV(%5 I guess ?) for Tristan is better than I expected particularly as there is confirmation that it's after tax which wasn't made clear in the Dec presentation.

Still worth far more than the current share price and nice to see yesterday's rise. Now that it has a higher profile I'm hopeful we'll see a rerating.

Des

[stevemarkus] 23/1/2008 13:52

Yes, my thanks too. Nice to see the price moving up a little with a few buys.

Steve.

[sranmal] 23/1/2008 11:54

Many thanks lsn. With Tristan likely to be nearing TD, could be a tranformational time for the company.

[lowersharpnose] 23/1/2008 11:42

Also, Burton Agnes is not dead yet. They are re-mappimng the data, over what is a gassy area.

They are still interested in North Africa and have contacts.

rgds
lsn

[stevemarkus] 23/1/2008 09:08

Hi lsn (Jon).

I'd be interested in your thoughts on yesterday's meeting as well. Grateful for any feedback, as I have started buying here over the last couple of days.

Cheers,
Steve.

[lowersharpnose] 22/1/2008 18:24

Des,

I've just got back. I will write up some notes, probably tomorrow. It was a good meeting.

Tristan in particular is going to throw off cash during its five year life. In year one it will payback all borrowing and deliver 1m to the P&L. In years 2-5 it will deliver £10m a year of profit.

rgds
lsn

[deswalker] 22/1/2008 17:59

Hi from Cape Town ...

Anyone there to give a quick feedback on yesterday's meeting. Clearly no one was rushing to buy today :-) Any brief thoughts gratefully received.

Des

[bomfin] 17/1/2008 12:38

Certainly is! but I got in at 56p and had over 30% profit. Already wiped out by DNX and VPC falls. They must surely be reaching ultra cheap territory?? IMHO DYOR

[deswalker] 17/1/2008 11:40

bomfin .. it was about DNX's fall and GKA. I wanted to run my numbers by you in this backwater but I've now posted on the DNX thread. I'd appreciate your thoughts on GKA production in H207 if possible.

You're a brave man topsplicing and trading here. The spread's a killer !!

[bomfin] 17/1/2008 11:29

Des,

I top sliced half near the recent top and got stopped out of the rest a couple of days ago. Waiting to get back in. Can't believe the current market and GOIL looks very cheap but waiting. This really is the proverbial potential multi bagger! Taken quite a big hit on my DNX though which I'll hold through thick and thin!! So waiting to get back into GOIL. Also tried to bottom pick VPC around the 730 mark. That's cost me!!

[deswalker] 17/1/2008 11:17

bomfin ... are you around ?

[dreggspicker] 16/1/2008 16:19

Must say with all the up coming news and what appears to be a well liked management, judging by the amount of farming they have done in the last year, and despite current market conditions, I have added more this pm.

it should drop some more now; dreggs

[deswalker] 16/1/2008 11:21

BTW I have a 33.34% stake in Anglesey at £4.64 per share unrisked. These sort of numbers make the risk-reward at 70p even more appealing when one realises that the shares are worth well over a quid even if Anglesey comes in dry.

Ofcourse one could try and buy in after a successful Anglesey (and I will be trying to do that too should it work out), but the shares are so tightly held that it could gap up a quid following the RNS.

GOIL is a genuine Value Share in a sector where virtually all small-caps are priced for growth IMO.

[dreggspicker] 16/1/2008 11:16

Des, many thanks, you obviously delve far deeper than I do,(& I must mend my ways) with my limited Brian power, I just think this one is way undervalued and that's enough for me; I just hope it will do well this year in the nicky frazers share comp for this year, my pick for last year was 4th, and I was about 20th the year before. I always pick something I have a large holding in. Fingers crossed!!

dreggs

[deswalker] 16/1/2008 11:07

dreggs ... My current Core NAV (Cash, ASX:OEL shares, Trist, Monk, Kerl) adds up to £1 which is already 30p higher than the current share price Hence all the explo stuff is currently valued by the market at minus 30p (70p - 100p).

Then I've got 13p risked for Globe or 36p risked for Roebuck (whichever they choose to drill). This well is fully farmed out and a rig has been contracted for this year.

Then I've got £1 risked for Anglesey (based on no further dilution) where a rig is already contracted for this year.

So my current risked NAV solely for these projects is £1 + 13p (or 36p) + £1 = £2.13 (or £2.36) or over three times the current share price

Then there are the wells they are targetting a bit further out (Oakleigh, Fat Cat) but which may well get drilled this year too (see Dec presentation).

My calcuations are based on active development projects or near term explo plans. It's not one of those NAVs where every last little project is included (that might never and probably won't ever be drilled).

I'd be interested to hear from others on their numbers.

Des

[dreggspicker] 16/1/2008 11:06

Right, thanks lsn, I can see what Des was getting at now, I don't have a hard nav for goil, but I do have a hopeful price which is far higher than 130p, but of course this could happen;

1. they waste the cash
2. we get too many dusters (see 1)
3. a collapse of oil & gas prices
4. they have some sort of expensive disaster
dreggs