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GOIL Granby Oil

62.25
0.00 (0.00%)
28 Mar 2024 - Closed
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Granby Oil LSE:GOIL London Ordinary Share GB00B085N744 ORD 0.5P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  0.00 0.00% 62.25 - 0.00 00:00:00
Industry Sector Turnover Profit EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap
0 0 N/A 0

Granby Oil & Gas Share Discussion Threads

Showing 801 to 824 of 1100 messages
Chat Pages: 44  43  42  41  40  39  38  37  36  35  34  33  Older
DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
20/11/2007
14:49
Des
Your theory on Monkwell sounds a possibility to me, what sort of terms do you imagine? Seem to recall their 9% stake was about 400 boepd?

Bought some more today at 56p, proceeds of FPM's good run, hoping theres something in the interims and like you say Tristan should be up and running soon if they dont sell it b4 then......

2jimmys
19/11/2007
15:13
Thks. I have always found management to be very responsive to shareholder enquiries.

Hopefully we'll get news that the Ensco 80 is scheduled on site at Tristan at some point in the next week or so.

Also some news on the third development project would be nice. I'm hoping it is a buy into Monkwell incl operatorship as this must now be well down DNX's list of priorities. A tidying up of this asset would benefit both parties so hopefully GOIL can get a majority stake at a good price. Now watch it turn out to be something else altogether !

I'm sort of hoping that they'll decide to pass on the Poland option but that won't be announced until after maturity (31 Dec). On the one hand they'll want to keep Gas Plus on side but on the other they'll want to focus their energy as productively as possible and maybe Poland won't achieve this IMO.

Otto Energy hold their AGM on 30 Nov and Galoc sale completion is scheduled for 14 Dec according to their press releases. Galoc drilling continues without hitch as of this morning's press release.

Des

deswalker
19/11/2007
14:54
I was getting impatient, so I phoned the company.

There is a board meeting Wednesday, I wonder if there wil be any other business, or if it is just to approve the interims.

rgds
lowerSharpnose

lowersharpnose
19/11/2007
14:50
Thks for the info. I was also expecting them this morning.
deswalker
19/11/2007
14:47
Interims will be out on Thursday. The website date of 19th Nov is incorrect.

rgds
lowerSharpnose

lowersharpnose
18/11/2007
13:15
DesWalker, thanks for your estimates on Burton Agnes.

From the company website, under Investor Relations->Financial Calendar, the interims are due out tomorrow.

rgds
lowerSharpnose

lowersharpnose
17/11/2007
20:42
lowerSharpnose, £5 per gassy boe looks a bit high to me but I haven't got any idea of a development scenario so it's difficult to estimate. I'd say this well is worth about 6-7p per share unrisked P50 and about a penny when risked. But it's currently in the price at less than zero.

Kim, I doubt we'll see any corporate action. Management own 35% of the shares and will be looking to grow the business for some years to come and not sell out at anywhere like this stage. I also gather that they're really into the UKCS and so I don't see them buying anyone and branching out geographically. Hopefully a mixture of innovative development projects adding incremental value alongside largely farmed-out explo drilling will be the way forward. Underpin the company with SNS cashflow and hope for the occasional CNS company-maker to come good IMO.

deswalker
17/11/2007
14:13
The Burton Agnes-1 well is targeting a (P50) 43 bcf gas prospect.

The question is what's it worth to GOIL, should it come in?

GOIL's 10% is 4.3bcf, 4,300,000,000 cf.

1 boe ~ 6000 cf. So, GOIL's 10% is 700,000 boe.

A finger in the air guess of £5 per gassy boe, would give £3.5m or about 10p a share.

How many mistakes have I made?

rgds
lowerSharpnose

lowersharpnose
16/11/2007
19:35
Last thing they need to do is blow their wad on more ill considered exploration prospects. Suspect there may be some internal debate on what to do with the loot. Safe investments or risky exploration...CEO (engineer) and CFO (non Oil Banker type) seem sensible types sure they understand that exploration is too risky at the moment, and they need some safe activity...trouble is safe activity tends to be less rewarding, may be a long haul and some of them may not have the patience to wait it through. I think they should try and consolidate now they have cash and some activity....but who with??

Any ideas..Chelsea you usually know who's who out there, who do you think should be in the frame either as acquirer or aquiree??
Kim

kim_clay
16/11/2007
10:48
baht ... yes they've been unlucky with the drillbit so far but I am more confident of management than ever in the light of the commercial deals done in the last twelve months. If they get noticed by the crowds then the share price should pick up. If they get a slice of luck with their drilling programme next year (please please let Anglessey come in :) then the share price would multibag.

Right now it's a very easy company to value. Cash is worth about 47p per share, I have Tristan and Monkwell at a combined 22p per share. The rest is priced at minus 12p including the Burton Agnes well which spudded yesterday according to today's RNS.

It's been very frustrating for the last couple of years but I'm more optimistic than ever that this company has a bright future.

IMO, DYOR

deswalker
16/11/2007
09:56
Des your post 804 is very up beat, which I'm glad to hear as I am still sitting on a sizeable paper loss here at present. However am I right in remembering that the last couple of test drill projects (apart from the Far East) by Goil have been no shows?

As you rightly point out there are similar businesses with similar assets or prospects but they seem to be valued far higher. Sometimes this is simply a result of better PR or over speculation/hype (eg White Nile) but often there is a good reason that is not yet known to a wide audience. You clearly believe that with GOIL the former rather than the latter applies.

baht
15/11/2007
19:19
Well I think management are great, seem to be well liked, and we just need 1 or 2 successes next year to rocket !!
dreggspicker
15/11/2007
19:09
Kim,

I'm curious what signal you're thinking of ? I just see this share as totally overlooked at the moment.

What are your thoughts on the acreage and management ? I know you know the North Sea business and so would appreciate your thoughts.

Des

deswalker
15/11/2007
18:37
Chelsea.

Mkt Cap £20mm
Cash: £17.5mm + Development and exploration carry.

Is the market sending them a signal??
Look into my eyes, look into my eyes...

kim_clay
13/11/2007
16:56
Well I've added again today. The valuation is insane IMO.

At 60p offered we have an EV of £4.9 mill post Galoc sale. The daily drilling reports show the Galoc 4 production leg started drilling on about 10 Nov and is scheduled to finish on 30 Nov (same day as Otto AGM to approve the deal). Everything is running smoothly according to the reports.

So for £4.9 mill one gets 54% of Tristan, 9% of Monkwell, the "third development project" soon to be announced, Burton Agnes free carry, Anglessey farmout, Poland onshore option and all the other UKCS explo plus new seismic and previously discovered oil/gas shows on quite a few of the blocks. This plus a team packed with expertise, planning a big UKCS explo programme next year and owning over 30% of the shares between them.

Interesting that everyone is getting excited about Encore but the numbers are nowhere near as attractive as here IMO. Ofcourse one gets the "Buzzard team" over there but reputation ain't gonna pay the bills come Q108 in contrast to Tristan. Loads of experience here and on a much smaller EV too.

Interims on Monday.

IMO, DYOR

deswalker
05/11/2007
08:42
10 Days until GOIL start drilling on Tristan and no news from GOIL ?
chelseapaul
03/11/2007
07:08
AGR snares Ensco 80 for Granby

2nd November 2007

Oilfield services player AGR Group is set to put the jack-up rig Ensco 80 to work on a 68-day single well management programme at the Tristan development for Granby Oil & Gas.

Work will start in the middle of this month.

The Ensco 80 will carry out the work after the Ensco 100 was delayed, AGR said.

AGR Petroleum Services' UK operations head Ian Burdis said: "We are very pleased to have been able to work closely with Granby and Ensco to secure the Ensco 80 to enable the client to meet their development requirements despite the delay in arrival of the Ensco 100."

chelseapaul
29/10/2007
16:37
Actually "not an efficient use of time or money" reminds me that my first impression from Nido's website was that they were a rampy load of whatsits.

I suppose it's quite feasible that the Galoc reality was not as rosy as the picture Nido like to paint.

rapier686
29/10/2007
15:56
A few comments from Nigel Burton ...



Granby finance director Nigel Burton said the cash would be directed "particularly towards UK North Sea and onshore UK developments". Granby is already negotiating the acquisition of further assets in the UK North Sea. He added that the Galoc field - Granby's only asset outside the North Sea - was "not an efficient use of time or money".

deswalker
29/10/2007
11:30
Hi Rapier,

It's hard to disagree with what you say.

I was certainly pricing the total asset at higher than the sale price mainly based on the Production Allowance tehnicality discussed before. However, in management's defence I'd say a few things ...

- I never saw any info expecting them to get the full Phase 1 2P figure out and the Phase 1 production profile signalled by Nido in numerous presentations always seemed to tail off at about 16-18 mill bbls in total.

- The Production Allowance was specific to this contract afaiaa and was agreed back in the late nineties when the POO was much lower. The risks you mentioned about a possible renegotiation may have had some weight ?

- As you say it is rather imprudent to start risking development projects at 100% (the same as Cash) when there's a lot that can go wrong. This is particularly true when the said project is a small company's major asset.

Nonetheless, when one feeds $90 per bbl through the Galoc Phase 1 PSC terms it does add up to quite a bit more than the sale price (I was using 18 mill barrels and $60 POO in my model for Phase 1 to get just about the exact sale price for both Phases 1 & 2).

However, I agree with you that they appear to know what they're doing and in times of $90 oil and cash strapped competitors it may just be that they see better NPVs elsewhere (this third development project for instance).

I think this is an instance where the spreadsheets says "why are they doing this" but the long term smell says "I like these guys, they seem to know what they're doing". I've relied on numbers too slavishly at times so I'm relaxed to discard them here and sit back for the ride.

Hopefully following this deal, anyone can see that an EV of less than £10 mill for this company is way too cheap whereas before it was only the nerdy PSC NAV modelling guys who were interested.

Des

deswalker
29/10/2007
10:47
I'm a bit disappointed on two fronts.

Firstly the MMs were willing to sell shares at 71p on Friday and I was planning to take them up on it today. Unlikely to be an option open to me now :-(

Secondly, the 2P 23.5mmbbl were all associated with phase 1 weren't they? After what I've learnt from you of the fiscal environment and the intent to extract them at warp speed, I have them around $20/bbl with WTI at $60 which comes to rather more than the sale price. On the one hand until oil's flowing to expectations, that still needs risking but on the other hand WTI is somewhat above $60 across the whole futures strip never mind the next 2-3 years. So the price disappoints me. And the residual exposure to the upside isn't particularly material – 5m shares's current market value is around £800k.

However I'm sure they know what they're doing with the sale, so either my expectations were unreasonably high – or they have an imminent opportunity for the cash which they expect to be rather more lucrative. (They weren't operator so I don't imagine Galoc was that demanding of management focus). The RNS (and yes their demeanour) suggests the latter. Hope so.

rapier686
29/10/2007
08:25
As an aside, I had about $26 mill in my spreadsheet for Galoc Phase 1 which is bang in line with the sale price.

I did have a fair chunk in for Phase 2 (risked at 60%) and a further small chunk for the Galoc Deep explo prospect that was very occasionally mentioned. These two chunks have now been replaced by the Otto shares and options so my NAV has taken a slight hit. However GOIL has retained some exposure to the upside and must have decided that this was preferable to negotiating and paying for Energy Searcher again (at less competitive day rates).

Also from a strategic point of view, oilcos need to leave something on the table for the next man and the sale allows them to refocus solely on their core area.

I'm very happy with this deal. My NAV takes a slight hit (altho Cash is always the best asset) but it gives me yet more confidence that this management team know what they're doing from a commercial point of view. Now they need to start hitting paydirt on the explo front too ...

deswalker
29/10/2007
08:06
Maybe Goil will start getting a bit more publicity.
hyper al
29/10/2007
07:59
Hi sranmal,

Yes I was thinking about something like that but was speculating about some form of swap giving DNX some Tristan % in return for a controlling stake in Monkwell. But maybe it's gonna be cash to DNX instead ?

From their RNS on 12th Oct (Polish licenses) ... [my bold]

Granby also has a 9.0% interest in the Monkwell gas field in UKCS Licence P.001, Block 42/29a.The field was discovered in 1989 by well 42/29-6, which produced gas at a rate of 26.8mmcfd from the Lower Leman Sandstone. The field was appraised by two further wells which also tested gas. Consideration is being given to drilling a new well in 2008 to further appraise the field.

and from today's RNS ... [my bold]

Granby has a 9.00% interest in the Monkwell gas field in UKCS Licence P.001, Block 42/29a. The field was discovered in 1989 by well 42/29-6, which produced gas at a rate of 26.8mmcfd from the Lower Leman Sandstone. The field was appraised by two further wells which also tested gas. A new well is planned for 2008 to further appraise the field and to enable a development decision to be made.

which is a clear change of emphasis. Now either DNX has made a decision in the last couple of weeks or some deal is in the pipeline with GOIL.

However to temper this speculation note that the planned well is only to appraise the discovery and they do mention their "third development" so maybe it's something other than Monkwell ??

The RNS is a little confusing about the terms but it appears to be $25.5mill cash (part of which will be in transferring loan obligations) leaving $19 mill over plus the shares and options on top of this figure.

Finally, Rapier686 you were right, Galoc really was on the back burner during your conversation. The North Sea is indeed where it's at from their point of view.

Exciting times ahead I think.

Des

deswalker
Chat Pages: 44  43  42  41  40  39  38  37  36  35  34  33  Older

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