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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Type | Share ISIN | Share Description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Granby Oil | LSE:GOIL | London | Ordinary Share | GB00B085N744 | ORD 0.5P |
| Price Change | % Change | Share Price | Shares Traded | Last Trade
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | 0.00% | 62.25 | 0.00 | 01:00:00 |
| Bid Price | Offer Price | High Price | Low Price | Open Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Sector | Turnover | Profit | EPS - Basic | PE Ratio | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| - |
| Last Trade Time | Trade Type | Trade Size | Trade Price | Currency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| - | O | 0 | 62.25 | GBX |
Granby Oil & Gas (GOIL) Share Charts1 Year Granby Oil & Gas Chart |
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1 Month Granby Oil & Gas Chart |
Intraday Granby Oil & Gas Chart |
| Date | Time | Title | Posts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/8/2008 | 07:52 | Granby Oil & Gas | 1,094 |
| Trade Time | Trade Price | Trade Size | Trade Value | Trade Type |
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| Top Posts |
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Posted at 04/8/2008 07:52 by mjcrockett etc, Re IGP - I agree an interesting company. However, the share price is quite high. The market cap is four times last year's turnover. IGP gets a mention in this month's Aimzine - free to register at The IGP piece is in the article on Directors buying shares.MJ |
Posted at 10/4/2008 23:31 by deswalker chelsea ... I hear what you're saying about position sizeing. With hindsight I owned a few too many of these but everything looked rosy until pretty recently and one has to bet big to win big. I'm not going to be quite as aggressive with similar companies going forward though.I've always been biased against EO. for some reason. I looked at it time and time again before the Gas Storage story emerged when it was 18p but always came to the conclusion that GOIL was much more undervalued as an E&P company. I completely missed the Gas Storage angle and still don't understand it, I must have been on holiday or something. Hopefully it will work out for holders but I feel like I've missed that train and I don't assign much value to the E&P prospects as a back-up, though I'm probably wrong. HAWK is one that I've looked at a bit and quite like but it's gas and the returns just aren't the same as oil. I've decided to pass again for now. Its the same reason that I can't get excited about AEX, so much of it is gas :-) Made a nice profit on VPC last year. Picked up some cheap Wham after the takeover was announced which legged me into VPC at a very good level which I then sold for a nice profit. But I've gone off the N Sea and especially gas so I doubt I'll revisit. I've got a few DNX but I'm close to the exit there. sranmal, I don't like MTA and know nothing about EEN and even less about LDP. Will check them out. Thks. My three small cap oilcos were GOIL, GED and WTE in that order. Since GOIL is no more I've added a fair few more funds to GED. To be honest I think it's much cheaper than GOIL ever was but I've decided to not bet quite so big this time. WTE is a low-risk wind-up play. It's simply made up of cash, shares in SEY, DES and an unquoted company called Eclipse. With Eclipse valued at the Book Value of the last private equity funding round a couple of years ago, WTE trades at over a 20% discount to its NAV. However Eclipse looks set to come to market within twelve months and ought to be worth a multiple (2-3 times) its current book value. This implies WTE trades 40-50% below NAV. They have also stated that they're going to wind everything up (cash plus three quoted companies) and return everything to shareholders. No new investments to worry about so hopefully cash out within 18 months. DYOR. I'm also spending more time looking at traditional small-cap value investments. Some are looking much more attractive than many small AIM-listed oilcos/miners IMO. Many of these are getting found out, that their projects are actually getting more marginal at $100 oil, $900 gold, and not more profitable. This shows just how much costs have increased. The charts of companies such as SRB & MCR tell a story IMO. Right, back to the golf... |
Posted at 17/3/2008 08:45 by deswalker This look like an excellent RNS to me but the market panics.Firstly, before the extra 10.3% they are in much better shape than I was expecting after allowing for rig costs and pressure concerns. Secondly, the Mosaic (I guess ?) deal looks good to me. They need £1.9m and GOIL steps in and gets an NPV worth 14.2/0.54*.103 = £2.71m. Nice business if you can get it. Rapier, you were right they like to go in for loan sharking :-) True that some parts of the drilling programme might be put back a bit but I see absolutely no need for a placing (whether written in capitals or not). The management team own 35% of the company. They are hardly going to dilute themselves away and I suspect they don't have the money or desire to increase their holdings. They're just taking the long view for the company. chelsea, you've now joined Norm on my list of people who I beleive are trying to talk the share price down. Hopefully others will be able to help with your questions in future because I won't bother. Des |
Posted at 04/3/2008 22:47 by normannumpty "He gave no indication at all that there was a problem"..hardly likely to say otherwise on an email to a PI is he, Nigels too smart for that.How about some hard facts (theirs not mine) rather than 'speculation and presumption'. The P50 reserves (14.7bcf net) were booked before the well was drilled: See RNS 19-Oct-07. And therefore based on pre drill P50 expectations. The P50 Reserves of 27.4bcf were based on a P50 GIIP of 35bcf (Tracs report pg 8) These P50 numbers were based on an estimated 3025psi (Tracs report page 7.) The P90 numbers were based on the lower end of the expected pressure levels: "This has been included in the TRACS evaluation by considering the gas in place at the end of the Tristan Main field life, and that the pressure in the NW area may be in the range of 2145-3025-3679 psia with corresponding gas expansion factors of 130-182-213 scf/rcf." Tracs report page 8. The P90 reserves are 28.9 (GIIP) and 21.9 Recoverable (Tracs page 10). This is a 75% recovery factor. (Simple Maths) However Tracs state (page 9) "The recovery factor was based on the reservoir pressure at the start of the field development, which could result in a recovery factor range from 67 to 85%." Given that we have a reservoir pressure at the bottom of the range the recovery factor will be closer to 70% (ie 20bcf.) All this also assumed the following (Tracs page 9): "A new well in the structure, with a horizontal length of 2000 ft and a skin of zero should be achievable, and could deliver initial rates of 50 to 80 MMscfpd through 5" tubing." Granby have already stated that it flowed at 30mm/day from a 778 ft hole. January 28th. press release. This seems not to be within the Tracs 'anticipated' well delivery parameters. In Summary the well delivered at the bottom end of expectations and at the bottom end of the reserve range. However you could still truthfully say it was within the expected range. Granby have already booked 14.7, so they cannot change this without Tracs reevaluating the field results..something I expect they will be doing now, until then the number is 14.7, they cannot say anything else. So based on Tracs own numbers they have 20-21.9 bcf recoverable, thats 10.8-11.8 bcf net. According to the latest post well presentation: The development costs are estimated at £68mm. And the loan is close enough £30mm. Therefore Granby should have spent(or will have spent) 54% of the difference between the loan and their final cost. Goil cost is 54% of £68mm = £37mm, loan is £30mm. i.e ~£7mm The RNS on 28th Jan stated that GOILS costs were an original 2.5mm plus an additional 3.0mm, and that they would hav £11mm by the end of March. The latest 29th Feb presentation states that this is now expected to be £8mm at end of March. Thus an additional £3mm has been spent above the £5.5mm, totalling £8.5mm. Goils sunk cost is therefore approx £8mm +/- £1mm. If we assume 30mmscf/day flat and 350 days/year of production at 50p, 45p and 40p /therm. Then it will take 420/470 or 530 days to pay back the loan (assuming its £32mm including interest). This will take 12.7, 14.1 and 15.8 BCF of production. Of course this does not include opex or tariff so these are underestimates. So lets add 10% to these times/volumes to cover those (Thats less than 5p/therm). That gives us 14, 15.4 and 16.4 BCF of gross field production to repay GOILS debt at 50/45/40p per therm before 10% opex and tariff. As we have seen the reserves are now seen by the Tracs evaluation as 20-22BCF (See above), That leaves between 4 BCF worst case and 8BCF best case (2BCF to 4BCF net to GOIL) to repay their £8mm investment. Assuming 50/45/40p per them and 10% Tariff/opex then that would give GOIL a gross revenue of between £3.7 and £4.6mm per BCF. ie a range of £7.4mm (assuming 2bcf) and £18.4 (assuming 4bcf). The bottom end will not even repay the original investment let alone the time value of money. Of course there is the Royalty and we are only guessing at opex/tariff. Burton states the NPV is >£16mm. but at what discount rate, what assumptions on reserves and what assumptions on pricing? and does it include sunk costs or is this 'go forward' economics, without this information it is meaningless. Norm |
Posted at 29/2/2008 14:15 by rapier686 The question was specifically asked and the response was "of course it's after tax, or it wouldn't be an net present value". And it's also after the £3.5m overrun.However as you say it's at a low discount rate and calculated at the forward gas curve rather than any lower figure. It's certainly not the kind of figure you'd expect completely reflected in the share price. And it was pre discovering the lower pressure. "What does everyone else have ?" An unhealthy reliance on other people's calculations :-) Well I think it's apparent that those 4 suffice to justify the share price and the prospects, give plenty of upside - some quite large and carried through drilling. Truth time coming up on 5 of them over the next year. Detailed calculation is not required. Cash needs keeping an eye on but there's plenty for now and Globe is free carried though the first well. |
Posted at 28/2/2008 09:48 by fillipe I'm always surprised that whenever there are good drill results from GOIL it never does anything significant to the price. All a far cry from the early days when even the mention of prospect of future finds would produce a nice spot of share price volatility.It seems to me that there is now a much more sober view taken on exploration companies, where the share price hardly moves until something really does come out of the delivery end of the pipe. |
Posted at 09/1/2008 11:32 by sranmal Guys,GOIL had a shareholding in Elixir Petroleum (AIM:ELP, ASX:EXR) of 2.5M shares and 4.625M options exercisable before 31 Dec '07 at A$0.50. The options expired worthless as the share price is much lower (3 Jan 2008 EXR news release). Does anyone know if GOIL still have the shares? I can't find any company RNS stating what happended (presumably since below 3% notifiable threshold). |
Posted at 16/11/2007 10:48 by deswalker baht ... yes they've been unlucky with the drillbit so far but I am more confident of management than ever in the light of the commercial deals done in the last twelve months. If they get noticed by the crowds then the share price should pick up. If they get a slice of luck with their drilling programme next year (please please let Anglessey come in :) then the share price would multibag. Right now it's a very easy company to value. Cash is worth about 47p per share, I have Tristan and Monkwell at a combined 22p per share. The rest is priced at minus 12p including the Burton Agnes well which spudded yesterday according to today's RNS. It's been very frustrating for the last couple of years but I'm more optimistic than ever that this company has a bright future. IMO, DYOR |
Posted at 27/9/2007 17:16 by deswalker Check out slide 23 of this presentation ...and similar presentations before this date. Since this date they've been rather more cagey about presenting this slide just talking in terms of "70% Cost Oil, 7.5% FPIA, 60/40% Split in Profit Oil after other incentives". As I'm sure you are aware individual PSC terms can vary and I've a feeling that Galoc is under an older PSC offering the Production Allowance (it is a landmark project remember). I tried to enquire about this from Nido a couple of years ago but got nowhere. As you say it really makes a big difference to the PSC. GOIL management and Vitol are very shrewd and obviously will have spotted this when deciding to get involved IMO. Also the historical Cost Pool. The impression I get is that management know that Galoc is probably worth more than the mkt cap on its own and especially so if Phase 2 comes in. Yesterday I saw a link to a newspaper clipping (link on Nido website somewhere) saying Phase 2 drilling in early 2009 all being well with production up to 25kbopd ! Take that at face value for the time being but I'm sure GPC have plans ... Management are in this to grow the company substantially. Galoc is a fantastic asset but it will obviously not multibag the share price They need to hit a gross 100mmbbl prospect in the N Sea with a 20% interest to see that happen (like Anglessey for example) but on a balance of probabilities, with the share price extremely well underpinned, I'm betting on them to do it eventually. Finally they've got a history in North Africa, Europe and the Middle East. They've done some research work onshore Morocco in years gone by and it wouldn't surprise me if they don't get a foot in there eventually. Finally, check out the one and only GOIL presentation ... in particular slide 17 which shows where they are intending to drill next year. They've just completed seismic over some of these blocks. See recent RNSs. HTH, DYOR and please let me know if you find any more on the Galoc PSC. |
Posted at 06/8/2006 21:04 by deswalker I posted this on TMF earlier today. Might as well put it here too ...Fundamentals Shares in Issue = 25.69 mill with no options outstanding. Mkt Cap at 89p offer price = £ 22.86 mill Net Cash at 31/3/06 = £ 7.254 mill Shareholding in Elixir Petroleum (ASX:EXR or ELP on AIM) = 2.5 mill shares and 4.625 mill options exercisable before 31/12/07 at AUD 0.5 per share (currently 10 cents out-of-the-money). Ignoring the value of the options, the Elixir position is currently worth £ 0.425 mill. So, netting the cash and Elixir position gives a fully diluted EV (ignoring small cash burn since 31/3) = £ 15.18 mill. Director holdings = 46.9% Notifiable Interests (Credit Suisse, RMB Resources, Tudor, Artemis) = 22.91% Tim Guiness has a few in his fund. www.granbyoil.co.uk Formed by the merger of two private companies, Team Oil and Granby Enterprises back in 2004 bringing together five former Enterprise guys with 114 years of oily experience between them. Areas of focus are the North Sea (mainly), Philippines, UK onshore and North Africa (new business unit recently set up). Two Development Projects 1) A 15.69% share in the Galoc Production Company (major shareholder is Vitol) which gives GOIL an effective 9.14% interest in the Galoc oil field development offshore Philippines. A rig has just been contracted to start drilling in July 07 with first oil expected during Nov 07. Details of the rig were announced here: They are currently working on an independent reserve report but the best info released about the Galoc field so far is a presentation by Nido Petroleum who have a 22.279% interest in Galoc. Here it is: Slides 13 thru 27 give a decent flavour of the project. From reading here and also the Philippino news reports over the last few months, I'm expecting total production from the field to be over 25 mill bbls and possibly as high as 35 mill bbls. For people interested in PSC terms, the Philippines is a very favourable environment. Some details can be found on slides 23 thru 27. Worth noting the historical USD 68 mill Cost Pool available on the project in addition to the attractive terms. Galoc may also have some upside in a deeper horizon, often referred to as Galoc Deep. No mention as to whether this will be drilled prior to the horizontal production legs. Note that GOIL remain very tight lipped about their expectations for Galoc but I see no reason not to go with Nido's expectations (and those mentioned by the Philippino Gov) for now (25-35 mill barrels recoverable at very favourable terms). I certainly don't believe that Vitol would be involved if there wasn't decent upside in this project. All will be revealed in due course no doubt. 2) The second development project was only announced this week. Due to the greater availability of North Sea Jackups over Semi-subs they have been pretty active dealmaking in the Southern North Sea over the last year or so. No more info is available at the moment, although I'd bet that financing the partner is either Gas Plus Italiana or (much less likely) Vitol. The former has formed a relationship with GOIL over the last year and they are collaborating on a number of explo wells and on applications for the next North Sea round. The project appears to be 10.5 bcf net to GOIL over 5 years with production starting Autumn 07. So, if all goes to plan, by the end of next year GOIL will be producing over 1300 bpd of oil from Galoc and an unknown amount of gas per day from Tristan. Firm Exploration Wells So far this year they have fully farmed out two of their prospects retaining a 24.375% interest in the Guinea well (15/13b) to be drilled by Nexen sometime in the next few months. P50 estimates are for 92 mill bbls on the block and GOIL are currently risking it at 34%. They have no costs to pay for drilling and testing this prospect. Likewise they are free carried by Centrica on the Watling gas prospect (42/28c) targetting P50 estimates of 154bcf and they retain a 22.222% share of this prospect which they are risking at 41%. This well will likely be drilled H1/07. Finally they have earned a 10% interest in the onshore Fraisthorpe gas explo well (PEDL 071) to be drilled in Yorkshire by year end. Gas Plus Italiana will pay their share of the well costs (operated by Egdon) in return for GOIL's technical expertise prior to drilling. Not quite clear about the P50 estimates for this well but I've got a 56bcf number in my spreadsheet from somewhere. Not clear on the risking either but it's a free carry. Exploration negotiations They recently entered into an farm-out agreement with a Canadian company called Albion Petroleum whereby Albion would partially fund a minimum of three explo wells (up to a maximum of five). Details here: The first well of the (minimum) three is the Guinea well above so there are at least two to go. The next Albion well will almost certainly be the Anglesey prospect (14/14b) on which they appear to be finalising negotiations for a full farm-out as per page 2 of this recent note by Objective Capital about Elixir Petroleum (registration required): The note talks about "final stages" in fully farming out Anglesey (GOIL 50%, ELP 50%) over and above the partial farm-out with Albion. GOIL have a P50 estimate of 119 mill bbls on the block with a 22% risking for the prospect. Other Notes All the P50 estimates and riskings can be found in GOIL's recent Prelims: The riskings for some of the prospects appear to be pretty high but there they are in black and white in the Prelims so I think they're much more robust than those usually produced in analysts notes. I'm going to use them anyway. The Prelims also talk of the creation of a North African business unit. In the past they have done some technical work onshore Morocco so I'm hopeful that they have contacts there to get things started. Worth noting that GOIL owns 8.31% of a fully diluted ELP (assuming that the ELP options move into the money). ELP currently has a whole host of prospects (many in partnership with GOIL), in particular a post farm-out 13.125% share in the Guinea well and a pre farm-out 50% share in the Anglesey well mentioned above. Thus, GOIL actually has a 25.5% share in Guinea (post farm-out) and a 54.15% share in Anglesey (pre expected farm-out). Guinea will be drilled in the next few months and Anglesey sometime next year I guess. Note that they did drill two dusters in the North Sea over the last 14 months. The first, Marquis (21/6b) was drilled last year at no cost to GOIL (a full farm-out once again). The second, Hendrix (9/27a) was a farm-in by GOIL on 2 for 1 basis and cost them about £ 1 mill. This second well is my only tiny gripe with this company. Farming in and then hitting dust is not that great but I guess that's explo. Conclusion An EV of £15 mill looks way too cheap to me for this management team and prospects. A full list of North Sea prospects and riskings can be found in the Prelims. Building a Nav model around these prospects and development projects (using the Nido Presentation to produce an NPV for Galoc) is fairly easy to do and gives me a current Nav of about twice the share price even if I only keep the firm wells (incl Anglesey) to be drilled in the next two years (altho I fully expect them to farm out and drill virtually all their blocks in due course) and a very conservative number for my oil-in-ground price. Plus a premium for a very able and well respected team (one only has to look at the deals they've done in the last year to see this), who themselves have big equity stakes (and have yet to issue themselves any options) makes this company look a good bet to me. Feedback appreciated. DYOR |
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