Georgica Share Discussion Threads

[cretin] 18/1/2007 21:24

this looks like a company slumbering, waiting for a bid.
tooredtobleed has it sorted, my hunch is a serious offer imminent, the guvnor will fill his boots at a knockdown price for the rest of us, £1.49p at a guess.

[tooredtobleed] 08/1/2007 14:39

amazed that it has recovered so well, current buy/sell spread is 1p and indicates another rise on past form... judging by the rns on the number of shares in issue may be some vultures buying the shares with a view to a pre-emptive bid. rising house prices equals rising value of their freeholds, too, so possibily good timing at last... just a pity about the actual poor trading!

[tooredtobleed] 15/12/2006 12:39

standard and poor downgrade Georgica and their bonds, due to expected poorer trading and increased debt. well, glad I sold even if it was too soon. May be that Georgica will buy back its debt early on the cheap if the bonds get cheap, using freehold sale proceeds. makes more sense than share buybacks anyway.

[tooredtobleed] 11/12/2006 13:00

back out, prob shoot on up!

[tooredtobleed] 06/12/2006 10:05

Classic 1p spread for this share should mean big rise today or tomorrow - check my past posts and share price movement!

[tooredtobleed] 04/12/2006 13:05

Hmmm, looks like North Atlantic et al are keen around the 120 level so may have a short term bounce to 130-ish, can't really sees that the trading supports it though

[tooredtobleed] 30/11/2006 14:49

north atlantic buying back in...

suspect the bowling co will be burdened with a high level of debt and left to a typical AIM fate of cheap management buyout after nearly going bust in a year or two, not helped by changing freeholds for expensivc leases.

they managed to get rid of the bad leases by wrangling things a couple of years ago, so similar kind of thing here except they will have extracted the valuable freeholds.

Actually surprised that they are not doing three co's, an extra one keeping hold of the freeholds and being a pure property play.

Big question, will there be any shareholder dilution to generate money to buy back the bonds?

Better to wait for the separation and buy into the snooker/property half of the company than buy in now?

[tooredtobleed] 30/11/2006 02:55

looks like they are going to float the bowling co after asset stripping it of the freeholds... question is by splitting into two co's where is the debt going to go, prob around 100m by then after adding on all the consultant fees and issuing new shares etc.

[tooredtobleed] 21/11/2006 14:17

so fd becomes md, often the first sign of fiscal trouble but who knows with this one. Still convinced it will go below 100.

[tooredtobleed] 16/11/2006 18:31

looks like they want to keep it above 120, nice bounce back.

[tooredtobleed] 13/11/2006 07:24

Be interesting to see at what level they will support the share.

[twirl] 10/11/2006 15:41

Offer talks ended as we expected.

With todays announcement GGA can start buying back shares again - at much lower levels!!

[tooredtobleed] 01/11/2006 02:18

oops, well it did bounce back a touch from 120 as I suggested before.

so poor trading for the next couple of years, offset by more outlets and profit taking from selling the freeholds but sale of freeholds are probably not going to make much of a dent in the debt as that money may be needed to shore up the company whilst it reinvests in new outlets. Still paying out money to consultants, BTW, you would think they would know what they are doing by now! Hint that they may split the company in two (before they were saying how much money they could save by having a central buying office) but by the time they have sold all the freehold sites which are mostly on the bowling side I don't think there will be much to split! No real sign that they are on the verge of transmutating the business into a lean, mean money-making machine so I would suggest back down to 80-ish over the next three months unless they support the shares with hefty buy-backs.

[mickystone] 31/10/2006 09:43

toored, you were saying?

[tooredtobleed] 30/10/2006 09:37

seems to have stopped falling, anyway.

[twirl] 30/10/2006 08:20

Results are overdue - bad sign unless waiting to say something about takeover.
Can't see how they can avoid saying something since its been around for so long.

[tooredtobleed] 24/10/2006 04:35

still going on down...

quarterly results or trading update due within the week, I think - good news they tend to announce quickly so doesn't look brilliant at the moment.

be interesting to see if 120 is the bottom on this one, may get a little surge upwards if it gets that low, on past trading.

[tooredtobleed] 18/10/2006 14:49

mildly tempted yesterday to get back in but resisted, looks like the downward trend still prevails but it is fairly orderly so no huge change in prospect.

[tooredtobleed] 16/10/2006 11:08

they have said already that they thought it extremely unlikely anyone would come up with an acceptable offer

I expect the bowling division to be sold off in some form or other, via freehold sites with planning permission and the rest got rid of for whatever they can get (perhaps management buy-out) which should have a big effect on their debt mountain.

But then it would not surprise me if they leveraged the successful trading side of the business (Rileys) to generate cash to buy another ailing company and start the cycle all over again.

Basically, no telling with these chaps (it is an AIM co after all).

The good part is that institutions with large investments will probably want to book some profit so it may all go down in a way that generates some cash for small investors as well (again only a suspicion, but listing Rileys once free of most of its debt on the main market seems likely to me, which would then leave GGA as a cash rich shell company to buy something else.

The GGA directors are astute, fast buck merchants who have been slowed down by a couple of years sorting out Georgica's problems. That does not mean they have much interest in small shareholders, though.

On the other hand, the market won't like another poor trading quarter and the share could go lower still over the short term. (cue (sic!) for the MM's to rack up (sic!!!!) the share price just to prove me wrong).

I am mostly out at the moment, BTW, some nice profits in hand.

[mickyash] 16/10/2006 10:51

bit fed up that there is STILL no news re takeover. If talks are off would they hve to tell us?

[tooredtobleed] 04/10/2006 03:46

Hmmm... 145/146 not long after I wrote the above. Either another fall on Weds or the MM's are reading this and trying to get you all to sell! Seems likely some profit taking as many of the institutions have doubled their money in a relatively short time

[tooredtobleed] 03/10/2006 12:31

GGA as a trading company does not much inspire (a long drawn out saga with all the promoise sometime in the future) as all its profits are eaten up servicing an increasing debt and possibly director salaries/expenses not to mention consultants.

GGA potential from the sales of its freehold sites to house developers and presumably then clearance of its massive debt is worth thinking about, though possibly mostly priced in already.

The directors have stated that they find it unlikely that anyone will give them enough dosh in a takeover offer at the moment for them to take it seriously - so should we?

Current bid/sell spread suggests the share price is stalled at the moment and going no-where fast but this can change on a whim - look for a 1-1.5p spread to see which way the wind is blowing (this has worked 9 out of 10 times in the past).

I have done well out of this share since it recovery from around 30p (having originally bought in at 120p and averaged down several times) so ain't complaining so far!

[mickystone] 02/10/2006 13:29

cartainly the lack of news re takeover is causing me to rethink my holding.
would have expected at least some kind of statement re offers by now.

[tooredtobleed] 29/9/2006 14:08

price down on good rns news - Bristol bowl site has planning permission for 180 flats. WOuld guess that puts the land value at around 10 million. Lack of share price upside suggests underlying trading is still poorish. Extrapolate the value of remaining freehold sites, they may be able to clear debts and still have the whole of Rileys as a trading enterprise.