Gem Diamonds Share Discussion Threads

[superg1] 16/11/2016 10:16

Michael

Not sure if you are still here but the forecast suggested re lack of big stones is proving correct and more of a dive to go yet imo.

As I said before some sales will include stones found prior to the doldrums they are in now. EG those 12 stones over £1 mill have no reference to them being found in the period just sold.

So there is further drop to come yet re $ per carat. They need big stones or that figure will continue to tumble. $ per carat is no good as a guide it has to be considered along with CPHT which I think is about 1.7.

EG if you have $1750 per carat at 1.7 cpht then the ore value is $29.75 per tonne. So then you work out costs per tonne all in.

If you have a diamond mine chucking out the normal diamonds mine doing 30 CPHT then the price per carat needed to equal the $1750 rate is $58.33.

$1750 looks exciting but $58.33 is a far safer bet as it relies on 'bread and butter diamonds' that come out the ground all the time.

I haven't looked up GEMDs costs but a geologist will say ignore $ per carat and just look at ore value per tonne v ore cost per tonne.

Letseng is only viable if they keep finding big stones and they needed 10 or more of those Q3/4 to meet previous year levels.

No news of any big diamond so far suggests they haven't found any and no time left to find 10+ in 2016 imo.

As older finds cycle through the accounts unless they hit big stones that $ per carat will keep heading south short term.

That's why the share price keeps dropping and I'm surprised why some don't understand that and the maths behind it.

[p_dharmendra] 10/11/2016 07:07

Good Q3 update ?

[ukgeorge] 10/10/2016 13:16

should get q3 results in a months time. hopefully that will give the share price a kick in the right direction.

PDL had a great breakout last week.

[imranawan] 07/10/2016 20:27

I was wondering the same thing boonkh

[boonkoh] 07/10/2016 15:42

Why is GEMD down when other foreign miners are up due to weakening sterling?

[superg1] 23/9/2016 12:21

Google alert playing up them must have been an archive

[ukgeorge] 23/9/2016 11:16

Petra looks to have broken out, hopefully these are next

[michaelfenton] 23/9/2016 10:47

So nothing new or of real consequence for Lesotho business?

[ukgeorge] 23/9/2016 10:29

this all i found


hxxp://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2016-09-15-amabhungane-end-in-sight-for-lesothos-troublemaker-in-chief/#.V-T1jfkrJhE

[alan@bj] 23/9/2016 10:23

That was published 2 years ago - 10th September 2014.

[michaelfenton] 23/9/2016 09:58

superg1 - where did you hear/read about latest coup attempt. I can find nothing?

[ukgeorge] 23/9/2016 09:44

Not really mad any headlines, they to have an attempt every couple of years

On a separate note

 Alrosa reports strong diamond sales. Rough diamond sales at Alrosa (ALRS RX) totalled US$243m in August, 58% more than the same period of last year, but a drop on the bumper month of July, when the company sold US$306.7m of rough stones. Total sales for the year to August now stand at US$3.09bn which is a 23% lift on last year's sales at that point in the year. Source: SNL

Investec view: The diamond industry is making a strong comeback from the horrible year it endured in 2015. We expect this trend to continue given low interest rates and a weaker US$ as we enter the critical selling period of Diwali and the Holiday Season.

[superg1] 23/9/2016 08:56

Hmmmm

Military coup attempt in the last few days in Lesotho, will that affect anything?

[superg1] 10/9/2016 00:52

Alan

If they had found some by now they would have announced it.

Why mention an 85ct stone as those were irrelevant in the last year or two. It's the highest price per carat mine in the world but also the lowest grade.

Big stones are what get the price per carat up and sales of stones previously found helped keep the true price per carat hidden.

The key figure is ore value v costs. CPHT which is under 2 I believe.

I'll check but I thought waste had climbed rapidly which is an added cost in a dropping $ per carat scenario.

They have to find big stones without them they are screwed, they can do that but so far this year they are way behind on finds. It's down to luck and good accounts management re what's left from older finds to convert to cash (if there are any left).

[tomatoma2] 09/9/2016 14:36

Larger stones could be found in the higher grade more productive areas. You will have to wait until the operation extends into that zone.

[ukgeorge] 08/9/2016 13:10

think I can see some blue sky ahead

[alan@bj] 07/9/2016 17:41

However, if you read the second paragraph of the Chief Exec's comments in the 17th August half year report you will see there is a greater chance of larger diamonds being recovered in the second half as mining has moved to more productive areas. In the first half 20 diamonds with a sales value in excess of £1m were recovered along with 160ct whopper, and early in July they polled out one of 85ct and another at 104ct.

[michaelfenton] 07/9/2016 16:57

boonkoh - you are right and expectations are reflected in the share price - however there is no guarantee as to how many large stones still to be harvested?

[boonkoh] 07/9/2016 16:41

The market is not expecting the same EPS as last year. So there is no pressure to match last year's results.

[michaelfenton] 07/9/2016 15:45

The chart does not look good. Indeed they do need to find some exceptional stones and it will prove very hard to match last years results. I am out.

[ukgeorge] 07/9/2016 15:42

Dr EX same chart at petra

[superg1] 07/9/2016 14:58

The only triangles you want to see are the ones formed by facets of a number of large diamonds otherwise their price per carat achieved is going to plummet.

To put it in perspective they need to find 1 100 carat stone every 10 days from now until the end of the year to match recent yearly results. They need one hell of a lucky run.

[dr_ex] 02/9/2016 11:27

big triangle forming from march 16. apex is soon

[alan@bj] 19/8/2016 16:08

superg1 - You should have gone to specsavers. I said "prospect", not "project" - although it is both in fact. This is from 15th March, "Shares" magazine:-
"Gem Diamonds (GEMD) is undertaking due diligence to potentially buy a project that was the downfall of former AIM-quoted Paragon Diamonds. It is among a group of miners looking at the Mothae prospect in Lesotho, four kilometres from Gem’s flagship mine Letseng."