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Fresnillo plc Share Discussion Threads
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|Funny how the jobs claims rises significantly after the election whereas beforehand it had a mysteriously good bounce...
First signal that the Fed might use to diffuse all the expectations when they hike by a measly 25 basis points and dampen expectations for more too soon citing, no doubt, the need to establish the necessary fiscal policy framework of the new administration or some such claptrap.
They simply can't let the dollar get away from them as it will kill exports any more than they can let the interest rate go crazy as the debt servicing of Emerging Markets and their own 18 trillion will smash any feeble growth hopes in global GDP.
They know that the days when the Yanks could do it all alone are now long gone.
|market generally oversold today with dow futures picking up . all depends on what happens when physical market opens in 15 minutes !|
|chart suggests gold price has quite good support at about $1100 . It used to be that gold was a hedge against inflation but nowadays interest rates seem to more relevant .|
|There's the £11-handle.|
|1000p then buy|
|Hect, if we get $1350 gold then we will be north of £20 here and your buy of a couple of weeks ago will seem must apposite!
I presume you've held on despite a further hit last week? As we are all told so often, no-one calls the bottom (nor the top) or else they are very, very lucky.
The break below the post-Brexit gap could well be the close longs have had to suffer but everything else in the global economic malaise is no different to what it was prior to Trump winning, so just like Brexit the overshoot to the downside has also probably been overdone here and in PMs generally.
|Well, 24th June gap closed. Let's hope business resumes tomorrow as the usual we used to know.
|dean what are you on, really! 1050 gold lol.
$1350 gold by February. We are in a very volatile, unknown period.|
|UKJust ignore rhyming slang (Deano), never called PMO right or oil, went from ramper to deramper then back to ramper.DD|
|told ya 6 times $1050, aren't you listening|
|fRES tried to rally but then hit by sellers - hard to pick next gold price move|
|telling ya, gold to $1050, Silver $14, FRES 1000p, CEY 100p...its in them there charts|
|well you decide|
|New multi year Dollar highs, bond yields rising....
What could go wrong?|
|I expect many of Trumps pals and colleagues are personally gold and oil men , at their heart. Remember George Dubbya Bush's chums? It'll be like that .
This STILL remains a very unusual opportunity to add to silver , Fres , Hoc FR and gold miners, maybe wait until Dec expiry is out of the way I think it is Tuesday and of course anything can happen in the Far East when NY is closed for Turkey day.|
|yeah nobody could have forecast this happening|
|hard to pick a target for a gold or silver stock and charts are of limited use but normally very useful for most other stocks. So price of gold and silver will determine share price as always .|
|Hect, I agree with you that gold would need to be lower, much lower, for Fresnillo to slip to £10 a share, but over-shooting does occur, n'est-pas?!
This time last year I was sitting on Fres at £6 a share, and gold was around 1100 an ounze...
The political upheavals and those to come in 2017 are plenty of support for both PM prices and related investments to not fall much further IMHO. That is what basic shorters are missing in this present dip in value.
Comex OI settlement for December (and obviously the year) plus the Italian referendum (Dec4) and the Yellen's decision day mid-Dec will all add uncertainty. And with each passing day the Trump euphoria is easing and people are starting to consider the consequences of huge fiscal stimulus in either the forms of big inflation or QE4 both of which aid gold...
|hns on the silver chart, technically a retest of $14 is possible, next test is $16|
|1000? never, it will follow gold, gold would need to be $ 50-80 dollars below 1200. I cannot see a case for it.
There is a good case for stronger silver prices, in an exciting new trading world , with base commodities doing very well, silver might well join in ( until Trumpet over in Washington fails and it all collapses. )
PM's are already a good insurance on Trump failure. And by isolating, he cannot succeed. ( I say this as a neutral, I was not for Clinton).|
|£12 certainly looks likely|
|surely a retest of 1000p is on the card here.|
|Thanks Topicale, very kind, I'm up a few pence this week, but of a dip here and HOC today though, hard to know why but its only a day.
It is good to see another general economist around ( yourself as per the above)its how I tend to think as well. Bond selling and crippling emergers? that's started. Now, he will certainly drop the Trans Pacific trade deal on his ist day of office ( stated). You didn't mention the Wall Street setup. That will fall back, correct after any definite rate rise. If there is not one, the stock market gets to over 20,000 in January. If no rise, will gold rise with the market as the dollar will certainly fall.
There are dynamics however that we can't yet get to grips with. I'll be content to sit where I am now, until he takes office in January and then see how gold and silver are doing before adding any more cash to positions. I'm about 25% invested now.
|If Trump holds enough sway he will not want Yellen to move until he's raised his infrastructure finance, will he?
Low interest on that must be preferable and given his 'day one' to do list we must equally expect early Q4 to kickstart the economy. More sweets for Wall Street, same old, same old.
But, if I'm not mistaken, that too is good for silver and gold...those $50 and $2,000 an ounze prices might just return sooner than we think.
So what we have is let rates rise, cripple emerging markets and bring on more bond selling and mortgage-backed security pressures as inflation surges, or Q4. Both result in gold being let off the leash. Am I mistaken?
Is there an alternative scenario that continues to see gold trashed for the foreseeable? How far can manipulation go? Was it really just a Clinton/Obama tool or can Trump access it?
Will he want to even? Tie the dollar back to gold and sod the rest of the world, but that too adds fuel to the PM fire.
Mmmm, good call last Friday Hectorp for the short-medium term into 2017....
|Therein ? aha!|