|MAG silver (joint venture with fres) being promoted by us gold/silver analyst (gsa). May have pull through in interest in fres.|
|Good assets that are increasing but, most especially MRThomas, tremendous cash flow.
Any hesitancy on the Fed's part and then, most unlikely granted, a Trump win and the PMs will soar again (I suspect and have bet they will anyway btw) and that cash flow will become a cascade!
Investors and fund managers and pension pot providers love that in spades so PM shares like Fresnillo will roar ahead. Good call yourself concerning this level as a buying op.
|Fair point re above just brought in again at 16 at least this share has assets etc behind it|
|Lol, if we were in a rate increase environment of course not.
It really depends what you believe is going to happen any differently to the last 12 months when rates in the US last rose? If you think it will be the signal with a December hike that more will follow, well of course PMs will be out of favour.
Moi, I go by actions and all year the FOMC have promised increases and not delivered because of the global situation and the reality that the US economy is not that robust to go off at a tangent. The jobs being created are not the type that enables people to spend and increase their GDP...whoever gets in will have the same issues.
So, if the hike is just to get it done with and leave room for a cut or two if needed then the market will react as it did last January and silver and gold will be bought strongly. Especially if allied to a Chinese slowdown again...and so I repeat the latest overnight slowdown news from there, and calls for the Yuan to drop substantially going forward.
Currencies are not value at the moment and therefore the alternative it seems to me is, and always has been, precious metals and related investments.
All volatility aside of course!
|So you are saying if rates go up, Pms do well.?|
|Funny how the market prefers HOC production numbers to those of Fresnillo and yet Fresnillo moves up in tandem!
The underlying reason is, aside from strong companies in undervalued minerals generating plenty of cash and profits and improving dividends, the poor Chinese data overnight I suspect.
That and lukewarm FOMC minutes yesterday suggest we are not so nailed on for a December rate hike as hoped. I still think it will happen and once it does the penny will drop that it probably is it for 2017 and PMs will regain the favour they had in the first half of 2016.
|And that was before Brexit and the 20% devaluation in the pound hence the improved earnings when reporting in sterling.
All apparently still on target per guidance so we probably will only move with PM prices and they can move suddenly either way, for no known reason. Lol.
|Fresnillo reports in USD and the pound has depreciated significantly of late.
Last time that silver was this price the shares were trading at just over 1,200p.
Asagi (short FRES)|
|no was in the red then but hope to go back in again if gets below 16 again would go in now but Oct not always an easy month to follow|
|Possibly Hectorp, are you a holder? Been in since £6 at the turn of the year myself and back the day after Brexit around £14.50.
Clearly the PM price variation is crucial as to the outcome in coming weeks for Fres but the update remains strong and should we get the usual October strength in silver and gold then we should build again.
I see resistance at these levels to the downside more than to the up.
|Head and shoulders fres.. so could drift a bit here.|
|And was it buy sign at £6 a share late last year MRThomas?
As you say, the earnings in pounds will look rather magnificent so, a good hedge for anyone the wrong side of sterling either because they live in other euro or dollar currency areas or simply have exposure to the pound via currency pairs.
PM investments will be a good bulwark against currency losses IMHO.
|Am surprised to see the price come down if gets to 16 to me it's a buy again what with the £ lower would expect this share to go up but hope it get to around 16 as that always a buy sign|
|proactive investors 10:41 29 Sep 2016
"Fresnillo twinkles after upgrade from HSBC
Mexican silver and gold miner Fresnillo Plc (LON:FRES) was gleaming on Thursday after a broker took a shine to it.
The stock lifted 50p, or 2.8%, to 1827p after HSBC upgraded Fresnillo to ‘buy’ from ‘hold’ and increased its price target to 2200p from 1990p.
The broker noted that the shares have come off their five-year June highs, driven by profit-taking and declining gold and silver prices.
But HSBC said the pull-back had created an opportunity for investors to buy the stock of a company it branded as “a precious metal sector leader”.
HSBC analysts Botir Sharipov and Jonathan Brandt said Fresnillo had strong assets, particularly its Juanicipio silver-gold mine, the world-class potential of which had not been fully appreciated by the market.
“We often hear from investors that Fresnillo’s stock is expensive,” they said in a note.
“There’s no arguing that the stock trades at multiples higher than most precious metal miners.
“However, we also believe that with Fresnillo, one gets what one pays for; that is, strong management team, high quality assets, long average mine life, growth, and a very strong balance sheet, amongst other qualities investors tend to seek out and are generally willing to pay a premium for.”...."
(Link doesn't copy and paste for some reason).|
|Another upgrade from HSBC, Buy target price 2200 from 1990.And they get paid for it!.DD|
|We had a similar laggardly target price on HOC the other day so it isn't unusual for a target price to actually come in below the present range/valuation.
We have been as high as over £20 in early August, prior to the dump of circa 15 billion in gold ETFs to calm the galloping price of precious metals and in tandem with, what we now know of a false build up, Fed hints at a September rate hike.
But whether the price is now in the £17-18 range as it remains temporarily, or as targeted laughably today as between £15-16, the sentiment of upgrading Fresnillo is obviously still the correct one and which moves investment monies in and out of stocks. It has been a while since Fres has been analysed so whatever the erroneous numbers they select the direction north and momentum into the Autumn silver and gold buying season is too good to miss.
But I still have £30 as a target, so I would say that!
|Potential reaction on Fresnillo PLC (FRES) to analysts' perspective in its stock
|(ShareCast News) - Morgan Stanley upgraded its stance on silver miner Fresnillo to 'equalweight' from 'underweight' and lifted the price target to 1,620p from 1,520p, saying the risks are now more fairly priced.The bank said the modest de-rating of the stock leaves the equity better priced to reflect continued risks to projects already in execution and potential for further deferral of additional growth.MS added that Fresnillo's growth plans are ambitious, with 40% silver volume growth planned from 2016 to 2018. It said that while execution risk around this growth remains elevated, it is now more fairly reflected in the valuation."Fresnillo's 2017 spot EV/EBITDA multiple has dropped from 20x at the end of July to 14.7x now. It remains fully valued versus the rest of sector with only Randgold coming close at 13.6x, but the multiple reflects the potentially superior growth profile and cost position versus peers."Morgan Stanley said current spot prices are likely to be sufficient to justify further project approvals, meaning the likelihood of further delays to growth plans has subsided.MS said its commodities team has lifted silver price forecasts by 7%, 13% and 8% for 2016-2018. This drives an earnings per share increase of 12.5% on average for the next three years at Fresnillo and is the key reason for the bank's price target increase.DD|
|Never wrong taking a profit MRThomas if that is a nice sum to you. Personally, and events today have of course borne me out, I'd have set a tight stop loss just below your sell price, say by 2% to avoid the usual intraday shakes if possible, and let it ride.
The Fed have now receded into the rear view mirror for a while and until month end window dressing etc., we should see people buying back PMs and related shares. In other words, the move back towards £20 could be quite sudden and holding with a tight stop loss would allow one the option of taking that ride should it develop.
Not sure when the Presedential debates begin but from what I hear that is the next thing markets will focus on. A good performance by Trump against Hillary could roil the markets big time so be on your 'metal' for that!
But yep, a profit is a profit and I wish I'd sold all at £20.30 and watched the August Fed pretence from the sidelines but we know about hindsight being wonderful so I didn't!
|MrTYour timing is impeccable, congrats and let me know where you going next lol.DD|
|Made ten % on this stock in less than a week s taking profits will go back in again if gets to 16. Cash is king to me so happy with my gain sure this may go higher as before|
|It is unbelievable, increase target by 68% and their still way behind the curve!, and they get paid for it!.DD|
I might be supremely optimistic as this is not as prone to gains like, say, HOC from these levels, but if the silver and gold prices surge again on the back of Fed disappointment, allied to the totally impotent BoJ this morning, then Fres will be galloping towards £30 once it breaks year-to-date highs.
With the election afterwards the rise of PMs will be a wise move for many as a safe haven.
I would think you are going to more accurate going forwards than Barclays who have just revised their last inaccurate forecast.
Why do they bother?|