Flybe Share Discussion Threads

[kumala] 01/10/2016 21:09

Major funding coming in next few days. Monarch will be fine. The company has been in operation well over 40yrs. A 12 day licence extension was given pending the iminent anouncement bigest in companys history.K

[mreasygoing] 01/10/2016 21:02

Monarch aren't going bust. End of story.

[dasw] 01/10/2016 20:54

Monarch's demise can only be beneficial ... no change in the number of passengers needing/wanting to fly

[owenski] 01/10/2016 09:13

Air Berlin have cut regional routes for some time, I used to fly with them and it was a good service but then they dropped a lot of routes, been using Flybe for years now, it's no frills but a good efficient service.

One problem I suspect with Air Berlin is that they used all jets from regional airports and if a jet capable of taking 2 hundred people is only packing 40 - 50, it can't be profitable, Flybe's routes aren't all at full capacity but they use small turbo props with just over a hundred capacity, 40 - 50 passengers probably means it can still make a profit. IMO

[sandoval] 01/10/2016 00:05

Ironic Cardiff - Berlin is added (to Munich & Hannover & Dusseldorf) day after Air Berlin said they are forced to downsize and cut 1200 jobs. Saad being a former Non Exec Director at AB probably helps.

[netcurtains] 27/9/2016 08:27

Biliam: Dont worry Flybe was interviewed on BBC Radio 4 yesterday and it sounded like its a roaring success....

He said the national airlines have pulled out of small regional flights and carriers like Easyjet have expanded the size of their planes to take more people and thus are no longer suitable for small regional centres.

Flybe, in many cases, is now the only airline in some airports - it has little or no competition.
He also said they are expanding this model to Europe (small regional airports with little or no competition)..

Clearly they have cut and cut again and now make profits...

This could be the "ground zero" point where its, more or less, all upwards from here....

If this was a gamble at the bookies, I'd say it was a good bet (more likley, over 12 months, to be significantly higher than be significantly lower) - which is all that any share can say..

[billiam] 26/9/2016 16:41

Let's hope so. Bit more nervous after Monarch news today.

[sandoval] 26/9/2016 15:48

Problem flybe has had and still has is rate of capacity increase. Capacity increase of 15.5% and passenger increase of 9.2% leaves a gap to be filled. More supply than demand and historic legacies leaves us at 50p. July figs show revenue is up 8.8% (from capacity increase) but rev per seat down and passenger yield down because of averaging. New routes take time to mature but Nov figures hopefully show how mispriced we are. Not a question of if but when we will take off imo but understandably holding flybe is only marginally better than watching (purple) paint dry. Our time will come.

[glaws2] 26/9/2016 12:33

Good analysis of FLYB here www.dangercapital.co.uk/2016/09/flybe-dog-is-value-investors-best-friend.html

[kumala] 26/9/2016 12:22

Flybe moving against the general trend today and looking positively blue.K

[kumala] 25/9/2016 21:35

TCG pre-closing statement tuesday.....Im hoping for some positive vibes from the company not least a mention of reintroduction of divi for this year end or at least next year. Any positive newsflow should/might have a positive impact here.I think the travel sector / airlines have stabilized cert since post brexit as you rightly mentioned. Fingers crosed the upward trend continues slowly and surely. I have a reasonable holding here having toped up many times but have to say my major holding is at TCG.Best wishes.All imho of course.K

[netcurtains] 25/9/2016 13:13

KUMALA: Agreed, the bottom of the market was Brexit news and French ISIS attacks. Post that date all is more or less upwards for airlines like FLYBE....

I do believe French ISIS attacks and Brexit was more or less the bottom.... The upside is far more likely than down side from here.

[kumala] 24/9/2016 18:30

All looking positive moving forward.Happy to be holding...K

[netcurtains] 23/9/2016 12:17

Flybe’s new route between London City and Dusseldorf opens up world of opportunities with codeshare partner airberlin
Leading regional airline boosts schedule with only available flights to Luxembourg outside of London
16TH SEPTEMBER 2016
Flybe, Europe's largest regional airline, and airberlin, Germany's second largest airline, have strengthened their existing codeshare agreement following the announcement earlier this week of Flybe’s new London City to Dusseldorf service that starts on 30th October. Tickets for the new codeshare flights can be booked with immediate effect at www.airberlin.com, hxxps://de.flybe.com, via travel agents or by calling the airline's Contact Centre.

[anony mous] 21/9/2016 16:37

20 September 2016Flybe Group plc('Flybe' or 'the Company")Further to the announcement on 13 September 2016, Flybe has been notified by its employee benefit trust of the need to purchase additional shares for the awards under the employee share incentive plan. It is anticipated that those purchases will be concluded by 26 September 2016 and a further announcement will be made upon completion.

[kmann] 21/9/2016 15:46

More shares please!

Looks like Buy Back 2 "The Seatquel"

Going spend a bit more of that £22million they have for buybacks/divis.

[kumala] 16/9/2016 18:50

Recovered a bit today after a few days of slipage......K

[kmann] 14/9/2016 16:36

Another route. Good for business travellers. Brexit, loveit!




Also proves a point

[billiam] 13/9/2016 14:26

Further to the announcement on 18 August 2016, Flybe has been notified that its employee benefit trusts have purchased a total of 4,879,063 shares in the Company at an average price of 47.1p per share. The maximum price paid per share was 53.5p and the minimum price paid was 45.9p.

As announced on 18 August, these shares have been purchased to facilitate a share grant of 5% of basic salary to all employees employed as at 31st July 2016, thereby giving employees a stake in the company. No further purchases are currently required to satisfy these awards.

[owenski] 13/9/2016 09:41

Billiam - agree, I use Flybe at a regional airport because it's easier than using Heathrow. It's a straightforward service.

[billiam] 13/9/2016 08:42

I think once you have tried a regional airport, you would be inclined to return. Less busy, no herd mentality, more time for personal treatment, easier to get to, cheaper parking, quicker processing etc. What's not to like?

[sandoval] 12/9/2016 17:46

Not suggesting Flybe model lives or dies on Ezj competition but out of 20% competition they account for half of that. Model lives or dies on regional airport growth which seems to be doing rather well.

[dangersimpson2] 12/9/2016 16:57

Of the biggest Flybe routes by seat capacity I think easyjet fly MAN -> CDG & MAN -> CDG. The success or failure of the Flybe model will not be decided by Easyjet but hey every little helps!

In reality there are not many routes where Flybe have serious competition. Of their top ten international flights AF are more of a partner since they codeshare across their timetable. KLM compete into AMS from BHX, MAN & SOU and LH/Germanwings BHX -> DUS. All the island ones, IOM, Jersey, Guernsey are Flybe franchises with no competition.

A quick check on skyscanner shows that Flybe is cheaper on pretty much every route. Probably because the Q400 vs jets would give Flybe a cost advantage over all of those national carriers but of course Flybe has less deep pockets over any given route if the big players are willing to take a loss on high capacity routes so being cheapest doesn't mean most profitable over the long term. It must help though.

On domestic only BA compete of LCY -> EDI the rest of the top 10 have no direct competition.

[sandoval] 12/9/2016 16:22

As you say, depends who you believe Danger but you would think the co itself knows it's largest cost and diff between the 2 is approx £14 million which should be material enough for HSBC to get right or maybe they got second opinion from Cantor :) My spreadsheet has $911 tonne 15/16 and $569 tonne 16/17 so 38% reduction.I see our 10% competitor EZJ are also having potential strikes coming - every little helps.

[dangersimpson2] 12/9/2016 09:46

wanttowin, KUMALA,

Yes, my article.

sandoval,

Thanks for the HSBC note - its very useful to know what the bears are thinking.

When I compare my model to theirs then they are actually higher on the revenue assumptions than me even though they assume load factor stays flat and yield comes under pressure. The big difference is over costs.

HSBC assume staff costs rising 13%/7%/2% and have increased these in the last note whereas Flybe have announced a 2% pay deal for the next 3 years.

HSBC assume fuel costs drop 17% but the numbers for fuel hedges from Flybe suggest a 33% drop.

HSBC assume airport & ground operation charges will increase 13%/15% this year. Some of this maybe £ weakness but this is more than they have assumed for airlines that have far more exposure to € denominated costs.

Some of the increases maybe them modelling added seat capacity but by keeping their load factor at low 70%'s going forward they are implicitly saying that there is no maturing of added routes where revenue per seat increases as people become aware of routes and increased capacity gives savings from airports. They may be right but again this goes against what Flybe management are telling us.

So I think it comes down to whether you believe that current conditions are a temporary period of weakness in response to less demand or a failure of management to turn around the airline. HSBC & the market seem to be pricing the latter, my opinion is that the operational turnaround has largely been successful and the current challenges are mainly the former.