||EPS - Basic
||Market Cap (m)
|Software & Computer Services
First Derivatives Share Discussion Threads
Showing 4226 to 4250 of 4250 messages
|Moved above £20 bid once again so I expect some buying pre-results. A share split might be useful to improve liquidity now that these are moving up nicely. The share price moves energetically in both directions so there are trading opportunities but it is a well run company that is a niche player in important markets which makes it a solid hold for me.|
|Well press release as it turns out informing results will be on 1st Nov
No comment about trading - so it must be in line with analyst / market / last release expectations|
|trading update tomorrow?|
|Very bizarre trading day on this share... no clue as to what is happening!|
|5% drop anyone?|
|looks like no trading update :(|
|This was the last market Statement
The current financial year has started positively, with continuing high levels of growth in consulting and further progress in software. We are confident that our high level of repeat and recurring revenue provides the foundation for another year of strong, profitable growth. In software, the full-year impact of deals signed during the past year, coupled with a strong pipeline, provides confidence that we can again generate good growth at high margins. We also expect to make further progress in positioning our software in sectors beyond financial services. In summary, we expect another year of strong growth, at least in line with market forecasts and to continue to invest for growth in later years.
I would like to thank the staff of FD and my Board colleagues for their hard work in achieving another successful year of growth for the Group.
16 May 2016
Will the company update the market ahead of interim results???|
|stock seems to be in short supply!
Buy just gone through at 2087|
|yes significantly ahead is what i am hoping for over the next 2 weeks|
|Last year there was a trading update with the notice of results on October 19th, so unless we have a "significantly ahead" announcement, why next week?|
|I would be surprised and disappointed if we do not get a trading update next week (or one week later) as the 6 month period ends.
with an updated price target of 26 on this share I would be expecting 22.5-23 by results announcement in late October|
|Through 2000 again!|
|6 months of trading of this financial year ends next week.
The results in May (to end of February) stated that this year has started strongly and that was with only 2 months of trading completed. In 2 weeks they will have 6 months of trading completed and good visibility for the next 6 months of order book
Also they will have currency benefits of dollar and euro denominated sales converted back into more pounds so I am very bullish on this at the moment
I am expecting a profits update in September ahead of half year results in October|
|Interesting to see 100,000 shares traded at 19.50 today.
Significant buying at this price has probably driven the increase over the last week or two. Also very encouraging to see new money come in at this price.
Rumours are that things are looking extremely positive in the business and public announcement on profits being significantly ahead of expectations is very possible...|
|I expect this to continue making up ground to 21 before the half yearly results in October and surpassing all time highs|
|Have added here recently on the weakness.|
|Would relocation to Eire really be a possibility? I doubt it would be easy, glancing through some of the AIM rules ( I am no expert so I leave that to wiser heads )
Looking around I see a few competitors popping up as well:
Like the quantumkdb that was taken over they seem to be off shoots started by ex members of staff. Suggests the kdb brand is growing and expanding.
|Good buying opportunity - fundamentals are the same for this firm
Also could easily relocate 5 miles south into Euro land if in the medium term such a scenario would be better for business|
|Share price not doing well on this news.
I wonder how many of the contracts are paid in usd.
Good time to buy?|
|120K shares sold today at 20.00
The last major shares disposed off were
376,000 shares at 1520 - 1525 price on circa 6th April
273,000 shares at 1586-1588.5 price mid April
Will be interesting to see if this is the end of this disposal..
This will be the reason for the retreat from 21.50 to 20.00|
|Wexboy - good luck with your investment analysis and strategies.
You have been regularly well off not just on FDP but on a number of other shares you have "assessed". If you were using real money to back up your assessments over the last 5 years you would have lost many many fortunes.
I always questioned your competency but no one can be so wrong all the time so I really do question now your motives and ethics.....|
|2016 – The Great Irish Share Valuation Project (Part II):
Company: First Derivatives (FDP:LN)
Last TGISVP Post: Here
Market Cap: GBP 494 Million
Price: GBP 2,038p
My last write-up was bang in the middle of a sickening price reversal. While FDP got nearly sliced in half at the time, my price target’s been massively adrift ever since. Clearly, I was wrong to speculate FDP’s consulting business* might eventually grind to a halt – as banks continue to retrench, we’re actually seeing an increasing reliance on IT outsourcing, while reduced head-count & market evolution demanded ever greater technology capacity & automation. [*Let’s not forget consulting (64% of revenue) remains FDP’s primary business, and its margins are far less scale-able than software]. And revenue’s continued to forge ahead, at an average 28% pa in the last three years, assisted by FDP’s serial acquisition strategy (three new acquisitions & a consolidation of Kx Systems in the last 18 months, or so). Earnings growth trailed though, as FDP essentially bought revenue/technology (rather than profits…with new Big Data & IoT opportunities also being touted) & the share count’s been diluted almost 25% in the last couple of years. [Even on a revenue basis, those acquisitions look damn expensive – averaging over 7 times sales, vs. a 4.2 P/S multiple for FDP]. But FY-2016 was clearly a real gang-busters year, boasting 41% revenue & 33% EPS growth.
However, we’re still seeing a huge disconnect between EBITDA & operating free cash flow margins (Op FCF: Operating cash flow, less net PPE/intangible expenditure). But presuming software is the ultimate driver of the business, EBITDA will become increasingly relevant: A decent compromise for now is to use an adjusted margin, averaging the latest 19.9% EBITDA margin & Op FCF margin of 7.2% (noting a prior year margin of just 2.6%) – a 13.6% adjusted margin deserves a 1.33 Price/Sales ratio. And noting FDP’s financial strength (with net debt of just £15 million), we can adjust for (surplus) cash & also add a debt adjustment. [Based on this adjusted margin, I calculate another £23 million in debt (at an assumed 5% rate, for acquisitions etc.) would still limit finance expense to 15% of adjusted margin – as usual, let’s apply a 50% haircut, just to be conservative]. Of course, we also need to value FDP as a growth stock: While earnings growth has accelerated to 33%, we should still recognise the huge/ongoing disconnect vs. cash flow (& reported earnings, which are now about 40% lower than adjusted diluted earnings) – limiting ourselves to a 20.0 Price/Earnings ratio, based on adjusted diluted EPS, seems only prudent (or maybe even generous):
(GBP 0.517 Adj Dil EPS * 20.0 P/E + (117 M Rev * 1.33 P/S + 15.1 M Cash + 23.1 M Debt Adjustment * 50%) / 24.2 M Shares) / 2 = GBP 893p
Again, First Derivatives looks massively over-valued. Which reflects the fact it’s one of those stocks where investors will inevitably have a totally binary positive/negative perspective, depending on which figures & accounting statement(s) they focus on – not unusual for a serial acquirer. As long as revenue (& earnings momentum) is maintained, growth investors will ignore anaemic cash flow, potentially fudged accounting, dilution, any potential increases in leverage, and keep buying at almost any price…the optimistic outcome is for FDP to eventually grow into its valuation. On the other hand, if something goes horribly wrong here, and/or investors’ expectations are dashed, my new fair value may end up looking pretty generous for what could become a pariah stock…
Price Target: GBP 893p
For related links/graphs/files, and more TGISVP analyses/price targets: Google the Wexboy investment blog.|
|Mach100 - I still see value upto 22 based on published information. if there is even better news in the pipeline then more.
I expected it to rest at 2025-2050 so I have been surprised how strong the buying has been|
|You revising up your TP Moorsie? Getting close to 22 quid but still powering ahead!|
|hell - what do I know!! buyers now above 2100|