Falcon Oil & Gas Share Discussion Threads

[sleveen] 30/12/2015 17:26

Some good buying today, looks like the January purchases are a little early :-)

[loganair] 21/12/2015 20:28

By Jeff Benjamin - Even as the price of oil falls to an 11-year low, market watchers advise against trying to time the bottom, and instead encourage either buckling in for the long-term or avoiding the commodity altogether.

The price of oil, now trading below $35 a barrel, has defied analysts' expectations for more than a year, and now there is speculation that the price of the commodity could fall below $30 before it starts to rebound.

“As an investor, you have to be awfully careful and awfully nimble, because there's so much uncertainty about where oil could find a bottom,” Ms. Krosby said. “Some managers are suggesting now is the time to bottom fish in oil-related sectors, but you have to remember that oil can still get cheaper.”

As a global commodity, stubbornly cheap oil is viewed as a sign of a weakening global economy, which has ripple effects across all financial markets.

But even as falling oil prices are creating investment challenges, the broader macroeconomic fears are unwarranted, according to David Bahnsen, chief investment officer of Bahnsen Group at Hightower.

“Right now, oil prices are still a function of excess supply, but demand continues to increase,” he said. “The economics of low oil prices that are killing the OPEC countries will dictate that the supply of oil does what supply-and-demand fundamentals always do.”

Mr. Bahnsen expects to see a reduction in oil supply over the next several months, gradually driving the price up to around $40 during the first quarter of 2016, and as high as $50 by early fall.

“If the price of oil is going to level off, and then see some increase later in the year, the higher-quality producers look attractive at this price level,” he said.

In the closely watched exploration-and-production space, capital expenditures have fallen by 32% this year and are expected to fall by another 17% next year.

“They're doing the best they can, but even as capex gets trimmed, cash from operations gets worse, so it's like they're trying to hit a moving target,” Mr. Glickman said. “This is an industry that tends to run cash-flow negative anyway, so it just makes a bad situation worse.”

“If you want to play energy, you need to think about a longer-term perspective and not try to time the bottom,” he said. “You could argue that the current price of oil is an overreaction, but there's still no reason the price can't go lower.”

[loganair] 21/12/2015 20:20

Falcon and it's share holders do not have to really care about the current price of oil as the company will not be pumping any for at least 18 months and by then hopefully the oil price would have recovered a little from the current lows.

[javea] 21/12/2015 19:32

Good one sleeven with sentiment so poor in the energy sector (except panr) this could well reach your target. We are close to blood on the streets perfect time to invest

[sleveen] 21/12/2015 14:25

Nearly there:

sleveen 4 Dec'15 - 07:17 - 369 of 371

Wait for the January sales before buying. Should be 20% off by then

[loganair] 10/12/2015 17:14

Falcon Oil to test gas flow at major Australian project by Paul O'Donoghue:

Irish oil and gas company Falcon oil plans to test the gas flow rates on its potentially huge shale venture in Australia in the third quarter of 2016, its chief executive said.

Speaking at the company's annual general meeting in Dublin yesterday, CEO Philip O'Quigley said that the company is to drill two more wells in Australia with its two project partners in the first half of 2016.

The 4.6m-acre area in the Beetaloo basin, almost the size of Wales, is the firm's flagship asset. Falcon's 30pc share of the drilling costs will be paid by the partners, who each hold a 35pc stake.

After the wells are drilled it is planned that fracking will commence. If successful it will then be possible to test the gas flow rates from the project.

It is estimated the licence area could contain 160 trillion cubic feet of gas, about 100 times the amount at Kinsale Head.

[taudelta1] 04/12/2015 08:31

there will be a pot of gold at the end of l' .... arc en ciel!

[sleveen] 04/12/2015 07:17

Wait for the January sales before buying. Should be 20% off by then

[arc en ciel] 03/12/2015 22:30

Ludicrous!

Falcon's Interims for the 6 months to 30 September 2015 stated that it was debt-free and had a cash balance of US$9.8 million.

Today the company announced that a Gazprom drilling subsidiary was paying US$3.7 in compensation for underperforming its agreed workload on Falcon's Hungarian prospect (which it still owns 100%). So, assuming that the US$9.8 million figure still applied, the only thing that changed for the company today was that it now had US 13.5 million in Treasury.

But the shares LOST 3.8% today and fell to 6.375p, knocking some £2.2 million (US$3.3m) off the Market Cap!

Even more of a bargain now.

[loganair] 03/12/2015 21:49

Falcon Oil & Gas is to receive US$3.7mln from former partner Naftna Industrija Srbije (NIS).

NIS, which is part owned by Gazprom, agreed to pay the money in fulfilment of its contractual obligations to a project in Hungary’s Mako Trough, Falcon said in a statement.

A termination agreement has now been signed for an oilfield services contract, which the companies previously entered into in 2013.

NIS drilled two of three wells agreed in the contract. Falcon had previously granted extensions to the deadline for the proposed project.

Falcon retains a 100% interest in the Mako Trough Licence in Hungary.

“This will serve to boost the company’s already stable cash position as it looks to progress its carried drilling programme in Australia,” said Sam Wahab, analyst at broker Cantor Fitzgerald.

Meanwhile, finnCap analyst Dougie Youngson said: “This situation has been ongoing for some considerable time so this is a positive outcome for Falcon and helps to strengthen its balance sheet.”

[loganair] 03/12/2015 12:23

Both Lukoil and Rosneft are basing their figures on an average of $50 per bbl for oil next year.

[taudelta1] 03/12/2015 10:22

If they were so clever they would be billionaires, which they aren't, therefore they scribble for a living. There is great uncertainty, but for what it's worth the price of oil futures for delivery one year from now is $7 above the current price (about $50.5 versus about $43.5 for Brent) .. this represents the "average thinking" of all the players in the forward market, people who put their companies' money and their jobs on the line .. think FOG will look good at $50.5 as their hydrocarbons are low cost to extract and to deliver and I'm happy to be in! GLA ...

[loganair] 03/12/2015 09:39

What will the price of oil be???????

I read 6 articles/reports yesterday from so called experts with in the oil investment industry:

2 said that the price of oil will be lower for longer, 2 said that the oil price will surprise on the up side and with in the next 12 to 24 months will be $70 per bbl while another 2 said that with in the next 12 to 18 months oil will drop into the $20's per bbl area......who is to be believed???????

[loganair] 02/12/2015 20:05

Time To Swoop? By Harvey Jones

Last time I looked at Falcon Oil & Gas (LSE: FOG) I thought it was more promising than most oil explorers after its recent drilling success in the Beetaloo Basin, Australia. Its nine-well programme runs until 2018 and last week it reported encouraging preliminary results from the drilling of the first three Australian wells, which indicated “favourable shale properties with excellent gas shows indicating the likelihood of high levels of gas saturations”.

Falcon is debt-free, with $9.8m in cash. Chief executive Philip O’Quigley has also highlighted the company’s “strong cash position, fully funded drilling programme and high quality assets”, which bodes well for 2016. The oil industry may be in a fog, but Falcon’s future is clearer than most. That said, the share price is down 32% in the last six months, so plenty of risks remain.

[loganair] 02/12/2015 20:02

By Malcolm Graham-Wood 25th November

Results this morning from Falcon (FOG), but financials are irrelevant at the moment, as it is the operational situation which is so key to the company. The three wells drilled so far in the Beetaloo Basin in Australia have been significantly better than expectations, coming in with high levels of gas saturation, leading to an acceleration of the work programme and the first horizontal well this year.

With high quality partners in Origin and Sasol (SSL), the future for the Beetaloo is most encouraging - and, as one of the better sector performers, it may be wise to keep Falcon under serious scrutiny.

[aviemore32] 21/11/2015 11:15

It could stagnate over winter. I'm hoping it will drop back a bit so that I can add more cheaply. Aiming for 500,000 shares.

[mr hangman] 19/11/2015 16:38

Would not wait to long here guys !!

[javea] 19/11/2015 15:38

I am thinking the same but it's going to be hard to sell any panr before the story unfolds

[trulyscrumptious] 19/11/2015 15:17

A bit surprising this is not doing better. I am not invested at the moment as all available funds have been multiplying over at PANR which I think has a long way to go yet. After that I am thinking of buying a few of these for the long term.


From Malcy's blog today.

'I spotted another good announcement from Falcon Oil & Gas yesterday, all is going better than expected and as we knew the programme has bee brought forward and the drilling for next year will be ready as soon as conditions permit so no delays.'

[mr hangman] 19/11/2015 12:11

Bought more this morning, with Craven at the helm, the future looks very bright indeed

[talkman2] 18/11/2015 08:20

Fantastic drilling results.

[loganair] 16/11/2015 20:08

Falcon Oil & Gas (LSE: FOG) looks more promising than most oil explorers following its recent drilling success in the Beetaloo Basin, Australia, where it retains a 30% stake with co-venture partners Origin and Sasol. With no debt and a nine-well programme running until 2018, this looks safer than many in the sector, and an OPEC-fuelled leap in the oil price could lead to a spike in its share price as investor confidence returns. Less risky than most, but still risky.

[arc en ciel] 16/11/2015 16:00

100,000 buy at around 4pm today kicked the price up almost 10%. Probably a local buyer-Aussies are sound asleep at this time.

The share price and market cap are still far too low; sole rights over millions of acres containing monster resources; partners/funders paying all the drilling costs for years to come and ready to help with development funding and off-taking too.

What's not to like? Only the oil price and by the time Falcon's Beetaloo fields start producing this will be higher than it is now.

[loganair] 31/10/2015 22:58

By Jack Dingwall:

Many oil companies offer good value at the moment, and for many investors now is the time to buy. However, not all of the companies will spring back if the oil price rises. High levels of debt, operating in expensive regions and lack of drilling are three factors that I believe will hold back stock prices.

Last week’s news from Falcon Oil & Gas was brilliant for the company. Falcon announced that partners had drilled another successful well in the Beetaloo Basin, Australia. On the back of another successful well, the shares rose up more than 30%; following this, the third well of the campaign is being brought forward by 12 months (Falcon is in the middle of a nine-well campaign over three years). The company has no expenditure and lots of exposure to drilling and, due to this, is one of my top picks in the sector. Recently the shares have been trading at 52-week lows, but any more success in the drilling campaign should cause the shares to re-rate.

Investing in the oil & gas sector is risky at the moment but the reward is huge. In the case of Falcon Oil & Gas, I think it offers one of the best investment cases in the sector. The company has no large capital expenditure for years, and has exposure to the high-impact drilling campaign of which the first two of nine wells have been successful. Even after the share price rose last week on the back of good well results, I believe Falcon is a good bet for the future and should outperform.

[loganair] 31/10/2015 22:55

Falcon Swoops

Falcon Oil & Gas has shown forward momentum lately, its share price defying wider market worries to rise 8% in the last month. Smaller oil explorers are mostly hurting in an era of cheap oil, but Falcon is flying on recent drilling success in the Beetaloo Basin, Australia, where it retains a 30% stake with co-venture partners Origin and Sasol. Better still, Falcon is fully carried for all 2015 drilling and evaluation costs.

Further success could drive the price higher, and Falcon has decided to start horizontal drilling at the site in the coming weeks, a year sooner than planned. With six more projects across Hungary and South Africa, investors have plenty to pin their hopes on.

Falcon looks attractive with no debt and a nine-well programme running until 2018. Better still, at 7.25p it is still trading well below its year-high of 10.75p. It may look like a rare point of light in a dark and troubled sector, but it remains risky. Last summer Charles Stanley called Falcon a buy with a target price of 19.7p. Ouch.