Eur.Conv.Dev Share Discussion Threads

[greedfear] 12/2/2014 09:41

Thank you all for the support thus far! :)

[smithie6] 11/2/2014 16:16

I'm not much of a chartist

but ....I can see that the 20, 50 and 200 day sma.s all crossed nicely in 2012

normally taken as signalling the end of the medium/long term down trend that ECDC had been in

and clearly a steady up trend has been in play for a while now

[greedfear] 11/2/2014 16:00

Don't know.
I don't do TA, but think TA adepts would love this chart.

[smithie6] 11/2/2014 15:41

thanks for posting the trades.....
surprised that not appearring on ADVFN delayed trades list....
---

2 X 500k

You think it is a spread bet ?!

[greedfear] 11/2/2014 15:40

Guess people are getting interested because of the large gap between nav and share price, while there are signs of share holder activism.
I'm trying to get as much support as I can and have taken a new step for that.

Further support from readers of this BB would be appreciated.

[greedfear] 11/2/2014 15:30

Think that 2x 500,000 is a rollover.

[smithie6] 11/2/2014 15:25

a trade of 1M showing on the daily chart

You been topping up Greedfear !?

[greedfear] 11/2/2014 15:22

Fair enough you'll keep asking questions that I won't answer lol.

Trades:
73,263 @6.4
100,000 @6
75,000 @6.12
48,776 @6.5
500,000 @5.75
500,000 @5.77

[smithie6] 11/2/2014 14:22

if anyone has visibility of the 4 trades that have taken place...
grateful if they can post them...

ADVFN trades page only shows 1 trade....but the daily chart shows 4

[smithie6] 11/2/2014 12:59

looks to me like the MM hasnt got any shares

wont even sell you 500 quids worth on-line

[smithie6] 11/2/2014 12:19

"Trade Centre Sliven
The project company's cash is still deposited in
three banks to achieve security but at the expense
of higher interest revenue. At the annual shareholders
meeting on 16(th) April 2013 it was
agreed that the project company will make a distribution
of retained profits which will enable our partner
to significantly repay the outstanding loan to ECDC.
In total ECDC will receive BGN 876K (c.EUR 450K)
of which c. BGN 485K (c. EUR250K) represented loan
repayment and the balance a distribution.
As previously announced, there has been no change
in the position regarding the development itself
and the Manager is considering various alternatives
for the site. "

[smithie6] 11/2/2014 11:28

btw
73k shares bt today on 1 trade 0.064

(although maybe there are more trades...since quotes page shows 246k as total volume..and 2 steps in the daily price chart
..but only 1 trade showing on delayed trades page...)

fair sized buy for ECDC

(imo over recent months bigger fish have been quietly buying shares ...soaking up various small sales, perhaps from people who were bored or wanted cash to buy something else they fancied....
....whereas sitting tight and waiting has produced a good % rise for me)

[smithie6] 11/2/2014 11:17

"Could you do me a favor and stop asking questions about a loan you think doesn't exist because I feel we're not really helping people in getting a better understanding of it all?"


How about you get a message from the co. can confirms what the reality is about the loan and you paste it so others can see ?

If no one knows for sure.....then I cant see how you can object to questions on the subject.

And personally I think that the mkt has little or no visibility for situation inside NEF3, 1-3......so, afraid I wont agree to be silent on that, quite happy for you to ignore questions though if that is what you prefer.

[smithie6] 11/2/2014 11:13

yep

nice to see the rise today and over last 2 months
but only needs a few buys or some news release and the share price could really move imo

like the mkt being told that Laisi occupancy has gone from around 70% to over 90%

or that Cascade is now producing cash each year.....an amount which is significant wrt the mkt cap. of ECDC

----

I think you're hoping for a sale of Cascade
maybe also worth considering whether better to just hold it...
and
if can make loans to be interest only
then the cash surplus could be paid out as a divi...(if we get dirs. etc to minimise costs)....or spit Cascade out via a bonus issue to be a separate unlisted company (Like Creston did back in 2000 with Ind. Commerc. Holdings)
and it pays us a divi.....and in 20 years time the building value should be much higher...and 20 years of divis would also add up....
and perhaps divi increasing 3% each year as increase office rental prices

and possible benefit from Rumania/Bulgaria finally 'converging' with EUrope for wages etc...original plan of ECDC

or pay down the Cascade loans by 1/2ME or something every year....and then after X years we own 40% of building value and in X years lets say its 100M due to inflation etc....then ECDC part is 40ME with no debt...and share price would be the same...

a) or b) might be better than a one off gain due to selling the bld ..

[greedfear] 10/2/2014 16:24

Onwards and upwards ! Get 30 cents and pay only 6 ! :)

[greedfear] 10/2/2014 16:22

Smithie- Have you in the past been posting using the alias 'markt' ? Not that it really matters, but I recall his style of posting was very much like yours. If not, are you related? lol

[greedfear] 10/2/2014 15:50

Smithie-

You're welcome.

Shedlin nor ECDC did loan directly to Cascade.
Shedlin (or a subsidiary) provided NEF 3 (IOM 2) with 1.7 million € equity and ECDC with 0.3 million.
NEF 3 (IOM 2) then loaned 2.0 million to Cascade (under the terms we know)

Could you do me a favor and stop asking questions about a loan you think doesn't exist because I feel we're not really helping people in getting a better understanding of it all?
No offence, but I feel I've done enough explaining. Cheers!

It's obvious ECDC does need to do better and more transparent reporting. I would like to get into talks with them about that and could do with support from other shareholders so they take me more seriously.
[e-mail]

[smithie6] 10/2/2014 15:48

btw
thanks for the info and opinions you have been posting....

(shame that the co. accounts dont provide the basic info. needed..and that digging is/was needed..c'est la vie)

[smithie6] 10/2/2014 15:45

"Indeed the 60% joint venture partner would welcome a sale of Cascade as soon as possible as the proceeds they are entitled to gets eaten up by the ECDC loan (don't mind that ) [and the NEF 3 (IOM 2) loan]."

I had originally thought that as well....
but
I think it might be different...
not sure if I posted out it before or not...

----

Basically, imo

'if' the building value goes up by say 10% per year due to changes in interest rates, national economy, demand from overseas buyers, etc...
then that might be 5M, for arguments sake

and much more than 20% accrued interest on loan of 4M (but that 4M would be bigger now I assume since compounding...) of 800k.

In this example the 5M increase due to capital asset value increase would be MUCH higher than the interest accruing to be paid to ECDC from the sale. Say 5 or more times higher in this rough example.

Worth recalling imo that the main lenders are banks I believe and they are just charging/getting I assume commercial prop. develop. % rates.
---

Some improvements were made at ECDC....I think an extension....335m2 perhaps...
all rented out now I believe....
the prop. managers might be keen on doing that type of thing before any sale...

---

for a more accurate calculation need all the data, all loans, all interest rates etc
and income, operational costs etc.

[smithie6] 10/2/2014 15:36

"I did ask ECDC for details but did not get them (as they would have to share that information with other shareholders too)."

I bet the Charlemagne staff know !

and the buyer of 7.8M shares in January !

(if they issued an RNS with the info.....I've be in favour of that...they are supposed to keep shareholders informed of material info

the large increase in occupancy at Liasi for example is material information imo that ECDC has not released to the market, and should....but I found from a partners website...)

[smithie6] 10/2/2014 15:34

btw
imo one reason for Charl. fund selling its 10% stake might be
- to create a loss for tax reasons....to balance taking profits on something else and minimise overall tax

- to remove it from their fund info...and hide their bad performance !
(various funds made the same mistake of putting lots of money into property and land in Eastern Europe in 2005-2007....and then the financial crisis arrived...)

[smithie6] 10/2/2014 15:31

The 1.7M2 2010 loan
you think it is/was from NEF or from Shelden ?

your 2010 paper seemed to show it was from Shelden

(the NEF 3 loan of 300kE from 2010...is immaterial imo wrt to ECDC share price
that was from NEF or from ECDC to Cascade ??)
----

whether the Shelden loan to ECDC exists now...I dont know....the accounts dont tell us....which is not good imo....
accounts do say they have been paying down loans....so the situation now may be different than it was for 2012 accounts.
----

the opacity of the accounts is something that needs to change....
something I am trying to trigger ;-)

[greedfear] 10/2/2014 14:48

Smithie-

Some information will not be given when asked as ECDC thinks that would have to be shared with all shareholders.

Like you I think the risk/reward ratio is excellent. Although I currently hate the lack of transparency I must admit that it's also a cause of the share price being where it is, so I guess I should not complain too much.
However, I feel it's an absolute necessity in order to close the gap between share price and net asset value to provide (potential) shareholders with better information.

For instance, it's impossible to calculate what ECDC will get if Cascade was to be sold for 50.1 million €. I've tried to but could not figure out how to get to proceeds of 15.8 million € as mentioned in the annual report 2012. I did ask ECDC for details but did not get them (as they would have to share that information with other shareholders too).

I'll try to avoid getting into a discussion about the existence of the NEF 3 (IOM 2) loan. I think it's still there, you think it's not. Fine with me.

Regarding the costs in the NEF 3 (IOM 2) accounts: if you take a look at 2012 it shows revenues of 539,000 and a profit of 349,000. The difference between revenues and profits are the costs i.c. 190,000. Those costs are rather high for a company that has one asset (a loan to Cascade) and no further activities.

Regarding the 55% share in NEF 3 (IOM 2). Somehow ECDC has got 55% of the voting rights but only a beneficial interest of 15%. 15% would make sense as initially NEF 3 (IOM 2) had assets of 2 million € (coming from ECDC for an amount of 0.3 million € and Shedlin 1.7 million €)
That the benificial interest is only 15% gets confirmed by the valuation of ECDC's participation in NEF 3 (IOM 2). Valued at 1-1-2012 at 357,000 and per 31-12-2012 at 409,000, an increase of 52,000 (being 15% of the profits of NEF 3 (IOM 2) ad 190,000).

It's true ECDC will be entitled to a 20% compounded interest rate on the 4.5 million € loan. However, that can only be paid if there's money left when Cascade is sold and bank loans and NEF 3 (IOM 2) loan has been paid back.
Then there's an another point that's not quite clear. When ECDC initially loaned out 4 million € to Cascade, their joint venture partner loaned 1.6 million to Cascade. It would make sense to assume that they too would be entitled to 20% interest.

Indeed the 60% joint venture partner would welcome a sale of Cascade as soon as possible as the proceeds they are entitled to gets eaten up by the ECDC loan (don't mind that ) [and the NEF 3 (IOM 2) loan].

[smithie6] 10/2/2014 14:26

...btw
if there is a loan still in position from Shelden from 2010...to Cascade 'Ltd'
then the Cascade numbers already include the interest cost

and hence

if Cascade can pay off any remaining part of that loan (if any still not paid)
...such as by using its own cash ...or the cash sitting unused within Sliven
...and get an income for unused cash
then

it would generate interest income for ECDC
and
reduces the interest costs for Cascade, making it more profitable....benefitting....ECDC

but personally I think the Shelden loan should have been already paid off, it was only intended as an 18 month loan...and ECDC has spare cash and Sliven has spare cash

and/or paying off any high interest rate loan will be included in the valuations done for the building by any prospective buyer...giving it a higher valuation than appears in the ECDC accounts for 2012 (which include interest costs for any high interest loan not yet paid off)
..increasing income for Cascade by 600-700K euros/year...if original Shelden loan is still in existance and is 3M Euros as you think.

600-700k euros higher income ...just due to possibly paying off 1 loan
or 300-350k higher income if move the loan to ECDC at 13% instead of high % rate from Shelden
is a high amount wrt the cap. value of ECDC.

[smithie6] 09/2/2014 17:46

Greefear
on subject of high interest rate loans

worth recalling imo that ECDC has lent 4.51 ME for Cascade project ...and gets 20% interest on sale of the project

loan is 2nd in line after the NEF loans....(whether paid off or not, we dont know, its AIM, cant expect the directors tell shareholders anything !...
especially not if Charlemagne are involved !)

(so, I assume that the partner in Cascade is very keen to sell Cascade.....and minimize the cost of that loan at 20% from ECDC...with compounding it is perhaps over 1ME per year...unless the building is increasing in value by much more per year than 1ME
I assume that the low interest rate environment in Euroland is helpful (if Euro was at say 5% interest then rates in Rumania and Bulgaria would be through the roof, giving lower bld sale values, lower % interest rates, higher bld sale prices)