Eur.Conv.Dev Share Discussion Threads

[chinahere] 05/3/2013 18:50

I'm still here - watching your future success !

[greedfear] 05/3/2013 17:13

Added 15k today. Not much but easy does it. Is there besides hoveite a single soul out there following this share? Just being curious, starting to feel like Robinson Crusoe here lol.

[greedfear] 04/3/2013 12:34

Added some. This is the only real estate inv. that's trading at negative enterprise value.

No better investment than this one.

[greedfear] 19/2/2013 15:55

Hmmm that's strange... can not even buy 25k @4.5p.

MM's must be out of shares.

[greedfear] 19/2/2013 15:16

Thanks hoveite, looks good for ECDC.
It's a crazy valuation, but I just keeping waiting for people to see the value here.
Think I'm going to be rewarded one day...

[hoveite] 19/2/2013 11:48

NEPI have bought the Lakeview office property in Bucharest for 61.7m EUR. On Google maps it looks like it is on the same road as Euro Tower but a little
further out from the centre.

See

They report that it has an average rent of 16.07 EUR/m2 and a GLA of 25,564 - which comes to around 4.9m EUR a year.

I make this to be a rental yield of 7.94%.

This suggests that it may be reasonable for ECDC to be valuing Euro Tower on an 8% yield as they did in their last annual report.

Of course there may be reasons that Lakeview is a more attractive asset than Euro Tower (e.g. if it has better quality covenants). However, I find it encouraging that office property in the Floreasca district of Bucharest is transacting at a valuation which seems to validate a major component of ECDC's NAV.

Interestingly shares in NEPI which is a Romanian property company seem to be in demand. It last reported an NAV of 2.88 EUR and currently trades in South Africa (which seems to be the most liquid market of the 3 it is listed on) at around 5.09 EUR. Quite a contrast to the valuation of ECDC.

The South African listing of NEPI is shortable at IG if one is so declined. I am thinking about doing so - South East European property at a stonking premium does seem odd - but haven't decided whether to actually put the trade on yet.

NEPI may well be a higher quality company with a higher quality portfolio than ECDC - but the difference in their relative valuations does seem extreme to me.

[greedfear] 08/2/2013 15:37

Well we've had the chance of reading the update in detail.

I do like the rental level of Cascade of 98,6% and it does look like ECDC and Cascade partner are making all necessary moves to get it sold.

If that happens we can add € 0.16 in cash per share.

Furthermore I do like the repayment from the Sliven partner of approx € 323,000 and cash payment of Sliven profits.

Together probably adding 0.5 eurocents to the cash position.

NAV 30 cents trading at less than 4 eurocent . It still is a buy in my book.

(Keeping the faith here...)

[greedfear] 05/1/2013 23:39

Nothing new really. I expect a company update end of this month, first week of february.
Hopefully they'll exit Cascade bringing in approximately €16 cents per share (according to annual results 2011).

Don't know anything about the existance of a share buy back programme, but I very much welcome it. They pay less than the cash per share and far less than nav per share.

Currently paying € 3.25 cents per share while nav is € 30 cents per share.

It's putting a bottom to the share price while increasing the nav of the remaining shares.
I wouldn't mind if this went on for a couple of more months.

Continued buying of shares for cancellation and then suddenly .... the announcement of the sale of Cascade.

[pitot_heat] 04/1/2013 08:44

Was in Spfl last year and this was mentioned, been keeping an eye out. Can you give me a brief update greedfear of whats new?I see share buy back in full flow, any idea how much of it is planned etc.
tia

[greedfear] 04/1/2013 08:40

Again an another purchase of 100,000 own shares for cancellation.
Keep it up!

[greedfear] 18/12/2012 22:03

And ... Yes an another purchase of own shares for cancellation!

260,000 today, so in total 710,000 purchased by ECDC in one week's time.

[greedfear] 14/12/2012 15:27

Quite some volume dealing in ECDC lately. Are we in for the long expected rise? Hope so...

[greedfear] 13/12/2012 18:33

And again another purchase for cancellation. Last two days 450,000 in total so approx 0.5% of outstanding shares.

[greedfear] 12/12/2012 12:50

Another purchase of own shares for cancellation. Far below NAV thus improving the NAV of my shares.
Well done!

[hoveite] 25/10/2012 18:37

One sentence stood out for me in the recent shareholder update.

This sentence is about Cascade Eurotower and states "The Manager and the partner are actively looking to improve the profile of the asset through various asset management initiatives."

This raises the question of why they feel they need to improve Eurotower's profile at this point. Since the block is almost fully let, my guess is that is being done with a view to selling the asset.

The optimistic take on this is that it might mean they are trying to sell the asset. The pessmistic take is that it might mean that they have found the market isn't receptive to Eurotower as it is, and they need to optimise the asset somehow in order to sell it.

[greedfear] 09/10/2012 18:17

Great! Company buying back shares far below NAV and below cash per share. I very much welcome this. Please continue as it adds value to the shares I'm holding.

[greedfear] 02/10/2012 21:48

No I haven't. Will do.

[hugepants] 02/10/2012 11:45

greedfear
Out of interest have you looked at HCL? 19p to buy, net tangible asset value of 120p? Plenty of cash currently. Gearing about 30% so not too extreme. Somehow it feels less risky than this.

[greedfear] 02/10/2012 11:10

No surprises in the interims. NAV € 0.3 , still trading at a 90% discount.
Cascade doing great with 97% let. Value of participation in Cascade of 14.5 million.
Cascade planned to be sold 2012-2013. If it would be sold at book value that alone would add € 0.16 cash per share. Current cash is € 0.05.

I know the world is facing tough times economically, but the discounts on NAV are out of proportion. I'm pretty sure this will be one of the investments where people ask themselves afterwards 'how the hell could this be 90% discounted and why the f. didn't I buy then?'.
Simple answer: fear. If others don't buy not even at this discount, it must be too good to be true, must be something wrong here, going to lose it all....yadayadayada...think I'll pass this one.

[greedfear] 02/8/2012 14:13

Nice update. Nothing changed much. Good news regarding our most important asset Cascade: now let 96.5% (from 92% last time).

Cascade is planned to be sold in 2012/2013 so that can't hurt the price!

[greedfear] 08/6/2012 15:26

Can't help but to think that despite all kind of real estate companies having trouble (re)financing real estate investing is gaining momentum.
Better to have your money in bricks than on the bank. This thought is picking up slowly, you come more across it on the internet (articles) lately.
Can't rule out I'm biased. Well, maybe it's just me....

[greedfear] 07/6/2012 16:47

Honestly I can not believe that this kind of trading is allowed. It is. Only in the UK though. The only place where MM's can give quotes but aren't obligated to buy or sell. Something should be done about this as the quotes do not reflect reality.
I know, nothing will be done about it, no one really cares.

It is kind of frustrating that for two days in a row now I want to buy and pay full price and yet get nada.

[greedfear] 07/6/2012 16:42

Same again today. Had online buyorders in at full offer. Nothing.

MM's are very reluctant to trade. Do they not have shares available? If they're not willing to sell at current price levels why not raise the offer (and bid)?
Strange.

[greedfear] 06/6/2012 16:40

Hm. Placed an online buy order at full offer @3.5p. Did not get one single piece. It's not going to take a lot to get this share moving north.

[greedfear] 06/6/2012 14:28

sbcurbs-

Thank you for your comments, appreciate it.

I can understand you not being to happy about raising the investment in Plovdiv from a minor to a mid level investment (whatever that may be).
Indeed playing it safe would mean to let it go bust if that would be the consequence of not investing.

Being more a "riskseeker" I can understand that ECDC, taking into account the current economic situation and the fact that only 62% is let think there is room for a lot of improvement.

Even with a 62% occupancy Plovdiv can't do terribly bad.

The results mention a 289,000 profit from equity accounted investees.
As 9. "The results, assets and liabilities of the equity accounted companies" shows 530,000 profit derives from others than Plovdiv and Mega Mall.
That would imply that Plovdiv and Mega Mall were responsible for a loss of 241,000.

The way I see it Plovdiv (62% occ) and Megamall (51% occ) generated a loss of 241,000 (for ECDC having a 50% participation). That sounds like a number that can be easily bend to positive numbers.

Offcourse, like you, I very much would like to know how much exactly a mid level
investment is.

I haven't seen "The Shareholders Cascade Park Plaza SRL have pledged their shareholding as security against the external loans to these companies." mentioned before.

I'm not that worried as Cascade has other shareholders besides ECDC.
ECDC (a shareholder of Cascade) doesn't have external loans as the company financials shows and (18 Liquidity risk) "The Group has not guaranteed loan financing for any of its subsidiaries."

To me that looks like the other Cascade shareholders do have external loans and it are them that pledged their shareholding in Cascade as security.
Do let me know if you think otherwise. Cheers!


Edit: I do understand your objections of getting in. Obviously others have them too and that's why we're looking at a 90% discount here.