Eur.Conv.Dev Share Discussion Threads

[greedfear] 28/11/2013 10:06

It may well be the perfect time for buying/adding ECDC to your portfolio.

Bucharest office market is showing (early) signs of improvement.

ECDC is trading at 16% of NAV (being 30 eurocents).

Break up of NAV:

Cash 4
Flagship Cascade Eurotower (A class office Bucharest) 18
and other assets 8.

[greedfear] 29/10/2013 08:00

Looks like ECDC and their Sliven partner are seriously investigating ending the Sliven project and splitting the assets (mainly cash).

[greedfear] 28/10/2013 16:51

Cascade still doing great.

All we need is a buyer for it and the share price doubles-triples just like that.

It's about time for that to happen.

[greedfear] 01/10/2013 15:18

The crown jewel:

Cascade

The building is fully leased and generating income in line with the budget. All the financial obligations of the company are up to date with there are no outstanding debtors.

With the completion of the leasing process the partner has managed to position the building as one of the premier office products in the Bucharest real estate market. There is continued interest in the building by potential tenants, with inquiries being addressed and managed by the building's management team.

In accordance with the most recent loan agreement the company has made use of its option and paid down some additional debt on the first anniversary.

[greedfear] 30/9/2013 15:37

Doing great. One day people will get why NAV keeps improving, hope that will take some time as I intend to add very gradually.
BOL holders.

[greedfear] 29/8/2013 14:52

Definitely something going on here.

[greedfear] 28/8/2013 12:59

3.9 MILLION shares traded yesterday??? What the heck is that all about?

[greedfear] 30/7/2013 16:20

Smithie- no offence but we've discussed the malls before. In terms of NAV the malls are irrelevant. All the investments in malls are practically written off to zero.

I must say though that I hoped that with a little financial support those malls might regain value one day. But it doesn't look like improvememts can be expected short/ medium term.

What's new is that questions are being raIsed about the value of the investment in Iasi/Oradea. I expect the managers here to not allow AREOF any delay in repayments (due in september) no matter what financial sh#t AREOF might be in. I'm pretty sure that ECDC will get nothing later (if banks (NEPI?) are demanding repayment of their loans.

I can understand investors having issues with the way ECDC has been managed. Frankly, investors did lose quite a lot of money and probably not all of it has been caused by the terrible economic times we are and have been in.
Because of that I can imagine shareholders voting no to some resolutions.

What I do not understand though is why they voted against a share buy back. Looks like shooting your self in the foot the way I see it.
Maybe you can come up with specific reasons to be against share buy backs? If so, do enlighten me! Cheers!

On the positive side, Cascade seems to be doing very well. Reports from international property valuators seem to suggest that Bucharest office prices have bottomed out. Cascade is the only property of real importance, the others are a bonus (or a burden in some cases :) )

Edit: BTW are you an ECDC share holder?

[greedfear] 24/7/2013 12:49

It just doesn't make sense to vote against a share buy back. Current shareprice is 15% of NAV.
People that intend to hold should be for it because it will add to NAV per share.
People that want to sell should be in favor of it because it will get them a better price.

Only reason I can think of would be that a company would need the cash and can't afford it. That's not the case here too.

Obviously it must have been larger holders that voted against.
I would like to get in touch....

[greedfear] 22/7/2013 17:07

Obviously some shareholders are not content. ALL resolutions were NOT passed.
Alas, no share buy backs then.

[greedfear] 25/6/2013 23:35

I like the numbers.

Crown jewel Cascade net value for ECDC 17.5 eurocents per share (cascade paying back on bank loans, being profitable (1.7 million) and cash generative).

Cash per share 4 eurocents.
Cash in Sliven per share 1.5 eurocents.
Cash within approximately 3 months because of NEF 1 and 3: 2 eurocents.

So not taking into account any value of other assets/investments ECDC will have 7.5 eurocents in cash and 17.5 eurocents net value Cascade.

25+ eurocents can be bought for only 5 eurocents.

(Cascade bank loan to asset value 28-29 million : 52 million is 55%. 12 million from liabilities of Cascade are loans from ECDC+partner. With 55% I'm not concerned about bank convenants).

[greedfear] 07/6/2013 08:59

Apples and pears, wrong calculations, wrong company.

Nothing is ever guaranteed.

Time will tell. I think share price will be >2x within a couple of months.

Easy money.

[greedfear] 05/6/2013 19:32

Smithie- Take a look at the annuals it specifically mentions value 50 million, 40% share of ECDC worth 14 million.
With a bank loan of 40 million that would not make sense as net value would be 10 million and 40$ of that would be 4 million.

BUT..... ECDC and it's investment partner lend money to Cascade.
Out of the 40 million debt (speaking from memory here) 28 is a bank loan.
So Cascade owes 12 million to ECDC and partner.

So if it would be sold at 40 million. ECDC/partner would get repaid their loan to Cascade.
Anything over 40 million will be divided between ECDC and partner 40:60.


So that's why with a 50 million valuation a 14 million pay out is quite possible.

I don't make up the yields, they're reality as is the 100% occupancy and the A class status.

You're not interested, fine with me .... time will tell.

[greedfear] 05/6/2013 16:26

Smithie- If I would be from Barcelona my name would be Manuel and I would know nothing lol!

Like said, you're right regarding macro-economics, every country seems to be struggling.

And yet, Cascade is an A class office building in Bucharest valued at ca. 50 million using a 8% yield (while it was not fully let in 2011).

JonesLaSalle, Colliers, Paribas and alikes predict yields of 8.25% for 2013 for office space in Buch.
Romanian office yields are one of the highest in Europe.
One day money is going to find it's way to those attractive yields.

But even if not and if I think of parties demanding higher yields say 10% then the value would be something like 10 million lower.

Payout for ECDC 40% participation was 14 million (when Cascade was valued at 50 million), so with a lower value of 40 million that would drop to 10 million (14 million minus 40% of 10 million).

So even when the yield would be 10% (and that's high) ECDC would still get 10 million when the property was sold.
Meanwhile, every year the property is not sold ECDC's piece of the pie increases with 900,000 due to an outstanding loan. Besides that bank loans are being paid off by Cascade.

This is a very attractive investment, market hasn't noticed that (yet).

[smithie6] 04/6/2013 12:56

I guess that since so many promising eastern european stories have then produced bad news...and then more...

like OCH going into admin. last year.

and Eastern europe future is not looking so good now....

if companies can pay new workers 600-1000 euros in Spain, Portugal, Greece....then there is now no need for them to relocate to Eastern Europe to benefit from cheaper workers...
and the PIGS are ordering/buying less products...some made in Eastern Europe...

and that banks are not so keen to lend to businesses in Eastern Europe now..which hits growth prospects

BTW ru based in Barcel. ?

[greedfear] 03/6/2013 07:57

Looking at the chart it does look like the share is gaining momentum.
It should as it's quite possible that the cash position of ECDC will increase with 17-19 million within a couple of months.

That's approximately 20 eurocents for each share.

Market should take this into account and it has not imo.

[greedfear] 30/5/2013 19:40

True as far as the malls are concerned.
That's why the malls are written off to 1.5 million.
Not much downward risk for shareholders here.

I was more referering to the fact that there is 4 million in cash, approx 2 million in cash in Sliven, approx 3 million in cash coming in from the sale of NEF 3 shares (within 5 months). All in all 9 million in cash.

Then there is Cascade Towers, a property that is 100% let, doing very well, cash generative and intended to be sold this year. When this happens I expect ECDC to receive 16 million net.

I can see a cash position of 25 million end of this year.
If the malls go belly up, no problem, that will not hurt ECDC (well not entirely true as they would have to write off the remaining value of 1.5 million).

So yes, from a macro ecomic point of view things look pretty dark, but from a micro economic view the sun is rising for ECDC.

[smithie6] 30/5/2013 17:28

..hmmmmm

but the last news paints a black picture for the malls .....and for economic/retail situation in countries where ECDC is invested

and the falling wages in Spain, Greece, Portugal....dont help any attempts to increase wages in Bulgaria/Romania...

nor the increasing EC unemployment....going up 1% this year....10% more relative to start of the year...

[greedfear] 20/5/2013 17:01

Well, well, well... cash coming in and probably a couple of million cash to be received within 6 months and maybe, just maybe, soon to be expected news about selling Cascade Eurotower (?).

Have been a holder for a couple of years now, patiently waiting for things to turn for the better and believe that time could be now. Will follow this closely, very closely, and add if funds available....

[greedfear] 05/3/2013 23:08

Usually I just place a limit order for 25,000 or 50,000 shares. Most of the time I do not have any trouble getting shares that way. I have been building up this way for over a year now and will continue to do so if I have funds and share price is lower than 10p.
BOL.

[chinahere] 05/3/2013 22:13

Hi greedfear!

Yes, I feel I must take another look. Not a holder yet but hopefully will be.

I haven't got Level 2 - how do you decide on the amount to buy? In the past I've found with these sort of shares that you can pay over the odds if you buy too many.

[greedfear] 05/3/2013 19:18

Hi china! Hope you're doing okay. Not an ECDC shareholder yet? Not complaining but it would be nice if others would take a closer look at ECDC so share price would perform better. If not, I'll keep adding anyway, very gradually, but keep building up my position as within weeks-months I expect the Cascade sale.