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[deltablues] 22/12/2002 19:12

Following the theme of "less is more", some provocative thoughts from Robert Buran:

QUOTE
Price movement is predominantly random, i.e. not 100% random, but predominantly random. The "secret" to making money in the market is locating that small portion of market behavior which is not random and exploiting it. I do not feel that conventional technical analysis is of any value in doing this. The problem with technical analysis is that it will present the illusion of uncovering hidden relationships between price behavior and various indicators.
I would submit that all such indicators are as random as the price behavior they attempt to predict and that all profits and losses realized from trading such indicators will be randomly distributed.
ENDQUOTE

More at

[r.dryden] 22/12/2002 02:24

db,
No, but I intend to soon.
No support/resistance, indicators, just price.

Hmm...Interesting.

r.d.

[deltablues] 21/12/2002 22:29

Has anyone read Zen in the Markets and if so any comments?



Available from the ADVFN bookshop:



Eddie Toppel also has a discussion group on Yahoo devoted to trading psychology, which looks quite interesting from a quick sampling:

[energyi] 14/11/2002 18:37

Know Yourself - the key to super profits

Ed Seykota's achievements rank him as one of the best traders of all time. In times of trading pressure, I find it useful to remember some of Seykota's wise thoughts; "There old traders and there are bold traders, but there are very few old, bold traders". When asked for some of the main contributors towards his success, he states that "I handle losing streaks by trimming down my activity. Trying to trade during a losing streak is emotionally devastating. Trying to play "catch up" is lethal. Win or lose, everybody gets what they want out of the market. Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money". There are two main traits that Seykota looks for to idenfity [!] the winning trader personality:

Continues here....

[energyi] 17/9/2002 18:07

The less you trade is better, this is again something to practice.
The longer you trade, the more you learn about waiting for the
right opportunity

stormforce

[0007] 07/9/2002 21:53

"Cheer up!" they said, "things could be worse". So he cheered up - and things did get worse.

[forsaken] 07/9/2002 21:02

energyi, thanks for starting this thread.

[deltablues] 07/9/2002 20:41

Dance like it hurts. Love like you need the money. Work like nobody's watching.

[mr potato head] 22/8/2002 19:00

I think you only have to look at the US traders thread to see that....far too many opinions and too little vision ...the simple fact is no-one can possibly KNOW where the market is going ..we can only work in probabilities and once we learn to think in probabilities then we are halfway there

[energyi] 22/8/2002 18:13

But it is easy to get into a mind set where something highly likely
is seen as certain. Most of my big losses have come from betting heavily
on events I thought appeared certain, but which proved not to be.

[guinea pig says] 13/8/2002 08:52

Mr PH
You have mail!
gps

[mr potato head] 12/8/2002 08:40

Energyi ..I can understand exactly not wanting to learn yet another methodology/system ..I'm sure all of us are guilty at times of lurching from one whizz bang indicator to the next whizzo can't fail system ...MP is not the holy grail but it has instilled a discipline into my trading to wait for the right places to initiate trades but its not something that can be learnt overnight.../I'll post some dax stuff up

GPS yes very intererested I can use DDE to import prices directly into Excel from my Esignal feed so a really useful addition would be to automatically update the spread sheet ...and we really would like a longer time frame profile chart..thats where we are starting to see some really interesting stuff as you have probably worked out for yourself now . email [e-mail]

[guinea pig says] 10/8/2002 16:24

Snapdragon RT is an other application that plots the market profile and marks the value area. But it isnt very flexible, so depends on how exactly you want to use the profile. But it is more reasonably priced.



Mr PH, I may be able to automate the spreadsheet updating for you (I have a similar one that charts longer timeframe profiles). I should be able to do it for cash FTSE but probably not FTSE futures. Let me know if you are interested and I'll take a look and see if I can easily add it from mine.

gps

[energyi] 10/8/2002 14:17

PH,
I am curious and interested, but Im not sure that I can
afford the extra time. It would be great to see a chart
with Marker Profile from time-to-time.

Does it add significant edge to your trading, I wonder?

[energyi] 10/8/2002 14:17

Among all Warren Buffett's countless utterly brilliant quotes, one in particular is among my all-time favorites. Mr. Buffet said, "Be brave when others are afraid, and afraid when others are brave."

[deltablues] 10/8/2002 12:21

E, where on the site is that? I couldn't even find out how to obtain his product, or what a subscription costs.

has an overview of Market Profile. Murphy's TA book covers it in Appendix B.

According to , Steidlmayer has written four books. One has not yet been published and the other three are out of print!

[mr potato head] 10/8/2002 11:37

energyi...there are various software packages available that can do MP for you
CQG is the best of them ..but it is outrageously expensive at around $700 a month ..the software I use is a specially written excel spreadsheet by Ruth Taylor ..an ex Bund trader who used to trade using MP and was trained by one of the big banks ..she started doing market profile training courses but has now moved to singapore...one excellent book on it is Mind Over MArkets by James Dalton..its very much a learn by doing methodology... of about 10 people on our course only two are still using it daily to trade ..if u like I can send you the spreadsheet to look at ...its end of day and requires manual input of the 30 min high low closes .

[energyi] 10/8/2002 09:20

delta,
I have one of his books. It is a bit hard to understand.
By hints at some powerful trading tools. Market Profile seems
to be a learn by doing tool. There is some description of
trading techniques on the Steidlmayer site. And a search on
Google might help

[energyi] 09/8/2002 19:04

PH,
Can you tell me what software you use? Is it easy to use?

[mr potato head] 09/8/2002 19:01

energyi
thats how I trade using Market Profile to try and map out a route through the morass of imabalances ...

[energyi] 09/8/2002 18:04

PH,
that's a good explanation.
The other time frame takes control and decides to test the
gap trading area before taking it elsewhere.

Ever heard of Peter Steidlmayer? He's got some interesting ideas
on trading areas

LINK:

From the site:
"MATCH STICKS
The most important part of market data is contained within individual data segments. Data segmentation has been the lost part of markets analysis, yet it is the single most important part. The information the market gives to all is direction which inspires trade and assures eventual balance. The natural way the market breaks up this focus (direction)) is through the independent participants who gain it in varying samples of data. It therefore has a different meaning to someone who is just starting a sample or segment compared to one that is half way to completion. Thus the analogy to match sticks -----where each stick is of different lengths and also of different composition as they relate to being finished as a product. Equality is everywhere in markets and in market information. This what the market strives to do and is what makes reading it objectively extremely difficult. Trading information that leads to intuitive feel comes from imbalances rather than balances. Balance is an resultant that is brought about by solving imbalances and all are relative.
...
In examining the support structure of the markets one has to be struck by how simple the whole operation is. From the clearing house which is the repository for all trades, to the arena where all trades are initiated, the theme is one of just balance. .All moneys, ledgers, loans, trades, volume etc. have to be balanced. Problems arise when imbalances are found. The market itself has the same characteristic. There is not a single definition of balance that is hard to find, but many relative ones that can serve to define. This means that there is a wide range of relative balance/imbalances that can create meaningful market relationships. "

[mr potato head] 09/8/2002 17:55

Energyi..you have explained succintly why there are gaps
but the other part of the question is 'why do they get filled' ?
the market exists for one reason and thats to facilitate trade
it is its job to move wherever trade may be found
as you say the market is made up of short term traders and other time frame traders
the short term traders perceives value differently to the the other longer term trader who has very different views on value ..if there is a gap then there is an area of price that has not had the chance to see if there are buyers and sellers there ....the markets do not like this therefore almost without exception on the indices anyway price will move back to test that area .it may be over a long-ish time frame as you say but they always move back to fill them eventually
incidentally there is a gap currently on the Dax at 4050 area ...i anticipate a move back to fill it

[energyi] 09/8/2002 17:09

Why are there gaps? Why do they get filled?

Nature abhores a vaccuum. When a market opens with a gap, it usually
means there is some news which was unexpected. If negative, then those
who want to buy will hold off and see how low it gets before placing
their orders. Then once the bad news is out, and the market has been
moved down to a level where it finds buying support those Buy orders
get put in. The nervous holders, who are alarmed by the news will sell
out soon, and their hurried orders ("market" orders?) will get filled.
While those who are more patient wait, having some confidence that the
gap will be filled by a price rise, temporary or not.

Essentially, there is a two-tiered market. Those who are in a hurry clear
their trades, then the longer term horizon traders regain control, and the
"news gap" fills. The way to play these, is from the longer time horizon.