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[energyi] 29/7/2002 13:55

"He who wishes to be rich in a day will be hanged in a year."
Leonardo da Vinci, circa 1500.

"Money is of a prolific generating nature. Money can beget money, and its offspring can beget more."
Benjamin Franklin, 1748.

"Time is Archimedes lever in investing."
Charles Ellis, 1985.

[energyi] 29/7/2002 11:20

"this time it could be different"
are some of the most dangerous words in the English language

[r.dryden] 17/7/2002 22:37

Thirty spokes share the wheel's hub;
It is the centre hole that makes it useful.
Shape clay into a vessel;
It is the space within that makes it useful.
Cut doors and windows for a room;
It is the holes which make them useful.
Therefore profit comes from what is there;
Usefulness from what is not there.
(Lao Tsu, Tao Te Ching)

He must've used TA.

[energyi] 17/7/2002 21:45

SINGLE TREADS ARE RARE...
Though not as important as gaps, I have noticed that markets
rarely cross the same (price) territory only once. There are
"single treads" in the chart at higher levels:

1) Just below 4400
2) Between 4780-4850

I would expect the FTSE to tread again on 1) and possibly 2)
in a "summer rally" before the drop resumes

[doctorbird] 16/7/2002 02:38

The five colours blind the eye.
The five tones deafen the ear.
The five flavours dull the taste.
Racing and hunting madden the mind.
Precious things lead one astray.

Therefore the sage is guided by what he feels and not by what he sees.
He lets go of that and chooses this.

[deltablues] 15/7/2002 22:50

Might as well quote the rest of the interview. There isn't that much of it.

Q. I still don't understand your trading method. How could you make those huge sums of money just by watching the screen?

A. There was no system to it. It was nothing more than "I think the market is going up, so I'm going to buy." "It's gone up enough, so I'm going to sell." It was completely impulsive. I didn't sit down and formulate any trading plan. I don't know where the intuition comes from, and there are times when it goes away.

Q. How do you recognise when it goes away?

A. When I'm wrong three times in a row, I call time out. Then I paper trade for a while.

Q. For how long do you paper trade?

A. Until I think I'm in sync with the market again. Every market has a rhythm... [see post 15]

"The current [early 1991] decline in the mark versus the yen is something I just knew would happen.

"The trigger was actually a Freudian slip. I was talking about the yen/mark rate with another trader when it was trading at 87.80. I kept on referring to the price as 77.80. The other trader finally said, "what are you talking about?" I realised that I was off by ten big figures in my price references. Obviously, there was some part of me that was looking for the rate to go down to that level. It was literally bubbling out of me."

-- The New Market Wizards, Jack Schwager, ISBN 0-88730-667-5

It may sound as though his trading is based on guesswork, or luck, but I suspect it comes from many years experience of watching and trading markets which has become internalised.

[moneybags] 15/7/2002 22:29

I tread lightly, but I am followed

But yet , I follow no one

they seek me through the mist

I endeavor to walk silently

[energyi] 15/7/2002 21:42

Great contributions, everyone!

Blind Chartist (BC, z#1):
What is the best time to trade?

My stomach tells me more than my eyes.
When I get hungry (around lunchtime) the market will
stagnate or show a mild reversal. After my coffee,
I'm ready to trade again, and it's like a new day.
Usually the direction is the opposite of whatever it was
before the coffee.

[deltablues] 15/7/2002 12:53

"Every market has a rhythm, and our job as traders is to get in sync with that rhythm. I'm not really trading when I'm doing those trades. There's trading being done, but I'm not doing it.

"There's buying and selling going on, but it's just going through me. It's like my personality and ego are not there. I don't even get a sense of satisfaction on those trades. It's absolutely that objective. Did you ever read Zen and the Art of Archery?

"The essence of the idea is that you have to learn to let the arrow shoot itself. THere's no ego involved. It's not, "I'm shooting the arrow and I'm releasing it." Rather, the arrow is shot, and it's always right.

"The same concept applies to trading. There's no sense of self at all. There's just an awareness of what will happen. The trick is to differentiate between what you want to happen and what you know will happen. The intuition knows what will happen.

"In trading, just as in archery, whenever there is effort, force, straining, struggling, or trying, it's wrong. You're out of sync; you're out of harmony with the market. The perfect trade is one that requires no effort."

--The New Market Wizards, p412.

This trader was quoted anonymously - does anyone know if he was ever identified?

[charlie] 14/7/2002 23:43

From Citywire:

However, after 35 years as a professional investment manager, Rushbrook takes a more sanguine view than many investors.

He said: 'Six months into a career in fund management you think you know it all, after six years you become doubtful, after 16 years you know it can't be done and after 26 years you know it can... but only by avoiding the mistakes.

Looking for the winners is a grave mistake, avoiding the losers is far more important.'

[sputnick] 14/7/2002 21:45

Energyi

Successful investing and trading is about changing your prejudices and attitudes
a large amount of lateral thinking doesn't go amiss for trading.

"When the Bears sell I buy" Warren Buffett.

Two celibate monks came to a ford in a river where there was a distressed woman trying to cross. The first monk took her in his arms and carried her across the ford and placed her on the other side. The second celibate monk was not happy about this and all the way back to the monastry admonished the first monk for carrying the woman. When they reached the monastry the first monk said " do you not realise I left the woman at the river".
Keep it simple and just wash your dishes.

Charlie
You mention keeping detached from the crowd.
" The only commitee I have contact with is when I look in the mirror" Warren Buffett.

[crocodile] 14/7/2002 20:28

Make sure you follow the true leaders!
They may hide but they always leave a footprint ....

[charlie] 14/7/2002 19:59

And (wilfully misintepreting the thread): American value investor Laura Sloate who runs Sloate, Weisman Murray & Company is blind.

charlie isn't blind, but he is physically disabled. Sadly I have to report that this doesn't really help me as an investor. Except maybe that it makes me slightly detached and isolated from the crowd, which is valuable. (But I think I would probably be like that anyway.)

[charlie] 14/7/2002 19:54

One way in which an investment idea can be difficult to believe (and therefore valuable) is for it to seem slightly uncommercial. Many of my best ideas have seemed slightly uncommercial.

[charlie] 14/7/2002 19:53

The most valuable investment ideas are those which not many people will act upon.

In other words a necessary (but not sufficient!) condition for an investment idea to be any good is that it should be difficult to believe.

[charlie] 14/7/2002 19:48

"One sure test of a true idea about the future is the failure of most of us to understand it."

The context in which I originally saw this written was the computr engineer Douglas Engelbart, who in 1968 invented the computer mouse and windows-type interface. And nobody understood.

[m.t.glass] 14/7/2002 17:27

energyi - ain't gonna send for you when my house is on fire!

;O)

[energyi] 14/7/2002 17:25

In the pasture of this world, I endlessly push aside the tall grasses in search of the bull.
Following unnamed rivers, lost upon the interpenetrating paths of distant mountains,
My strength failing and my vitality exhausted, I cannot find the bull.
I only hear the locusts chirring through the forest at night.

LINK:

[energyi] 14/7/2002 17:07

No, I think they have the seeing kind,
mostly without wisdom or memory

[m.t.glass] 14/7/2002 17:04

Don't most fund managers already employ blind chartists?

[energyi] 14/7/2002 16:58

Zen Master Unmon said: "The world is vast and wide. Why do you put on your robes at the sound of a bell?"

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